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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the mainland U.S. today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough and associated speed max -- now embedded in northwest flow over portions of IA -- will move southeastward and strengthen considerably today, reaching portions of AL/GA by 00Z. The perturbation should continue intensifying as it pivots offshore from northern FL, GA and SC overnight, while inducing surface cyclogenesis over Atlantic waters well to the east. Low-level mass response will intensify the northwesterly to westerly gradient flow and negative theta-e advection over FL and adjacent waters, causing substantial offshore displacement of favorable buoyancy and lift. In the meantime, convection crossing the lower/ middle Keys may produce sporadic flashes, with a small portion of the roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evident in the morning KEY sounding extending into favorable icing layers for lightning. Thunder also will be possible over waters near the southeastern FL coastline, and a few flashes may occur just east of the NC Outer Banks as well. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/13/2022 Read more

Carter County Commissioners implemented a burn ban on Dec. 20 and extended it through Jan. 17. The ban made it unlawful for a person "to set fire to any forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands or to build a campfire, bonfire, burn or ignite fireworks, or to burn trash or other materials that may cause a forest, grass, range crop or other wild lands fire." Ardmoreite.com (Okla.), Jan 7, 2022

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration due to exceptional drought posing a threat of imminent disaster in Andrews, Baylor, Borden, Brewster, Cameron, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Culberson, Dallam, Dawson, Deaf Smith, Dimmit, Fisher, Foard, Gray, Hansford, Hardeman, Hartley, Haskell, Hemphill, Hidalgo, Howard, Hutchinson, Jones, Knox, Lamar, Martin, Maverick, Midland, Moore, Motley, Ochiltree, Oldham, Pecos, Potter, Presidio, Randall, Roberts, Scurry, Sherman, Stonewall, Terrell, Throckmorton, Upton, Ward, Wheeler, Wichita, Wilbarger, and Winkler counties. Office of the Governor - Greg Abbott (Texas), Jan 6, 2022

With Arizona’s water supply from the Colorado River being reduced due to the declared water shortage, residents of Scottsdale are urged to limit water use by at least 5%. City officials have also found ways for the city to conserve water. In recent years, areas of turf and non-recreational grass were converted to xeriscape. Low flow toilets were another way to conserve water. FOX 10 (Phoenix, Ariz.), Jan 11, 2022

Blue Mesa Reservoir was more than 80 feet below full pool in late 2021 after its water was released downstream for Lake Powell. The water receded into its old river channel on the eastern edges, exposing foundations from the town of Iola and Stevens Ranch. Gunnison Country Times (Colo.), Jan 12, 2022

Five of New Mexico’s eight ski resorts have partially opened as drought limits the amount of snow available, but three resorts—Ski Apache, Pajarito Mountain and Sandia Peak—have not yet opened for the season. KRQE (Albuquerque, N.M.), Jan 12, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of southeastern Florida and over the Keys. Very similar to yesterday, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight along the coast of southeast FL and the Keys - mainly offshore. Weak shear will continue to minimize the risk of severe storms. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity during this period. ..Hart.. 01/12/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 12 16:23:01 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 12 16:23:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (please see below) remains on track, with no additions or changes made. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will persist over the western CONUS, while a belt of strong northwesterly midlevel flow overspreads the Missouri Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered over the Intermountain West, with broad/weak surface troughing encompassing much of the central states. ...Southern High Plains... Subsidence-induced drying along the southern periphery of the strong northwesterly midlevel flow combined with diurnal heating/mixing will foster critically low RH across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. With that said, a weak surface pressure gradient across the region should limit the overall fire-weather threat. The one exception may be in the lee of the higher terrain across east-central New Mexico, where breezy terrain-enhanced winds may overlap the dry boundary-layer conditions for a few hours. However, the threat appears too localized to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of southeastern Florida and over the Keys. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A broad mid/upper-level cyclone with binary vorticity maxima will pivot over the Hudson Bay/northern QC region through the period, anchoring a large-scale trough extending southward to the Gulf. This trough will amplify through the period as a series of shortwaves pass through northwesterly to cyclonic flow from the central to eastern CONUS. One of the shortwave troughs -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over east TX -- should pivot across the northern Gulf Coast region today, reaching parts of central/northern FL overnight. As the mid/upper trough approaches, low-level mass response will back flow from a dominant easterly to northerly component. As this occurs, the primary convergence zone aiding the bulk of convective potential will shift away from a position north of a decaying frontal zone, near the mainland coast and Keys, where it will be located much of today. Until then, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible amidst marginal instability, with MLCAPE around 500-800 J/kg over mainland coastal areas, slightly higher in the Keys, and up to 1500 J/kg offshore over the optimal thermal fluxes of the Gulf Stream. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/12/2022 Read more

Crews are implementing day 2 of the Gallinas Canyon prescribed pile burn today, Jan.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 11 13:51:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 11 13:51:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunder will be possible today along immediate coastal areas of southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mean trough will persist in mid/upper levels over the eastern CONUS, with amplifying ridging over the West Coast States. A weak, small, initially cut-off cyclone over southeastern NM and far west TX will move eastward and rejoin the prevailing westerlies as a deamplifying open wave. reaching the Sabine River vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. With relatively dry and stable low-level conditions, this feature should yield only midlevel convection to its east over central/southeast TX and southwestern LA, with lightning potential too isolated and low for a general thunder area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida, to the central Gulf. This front should weaken as it drifts southward. A nearly collocated surface trough, confluence/convergence zone and moist axis extended northward between south FL and the Bahamas, which should continue to focus isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over/near the Gulf Stream. Though lapse rates will be modest overall, ocean-air thermal/moisture fluxes over the Gulf Stream and diurnal heating inland should boost MLCAPE into the 500-800 J/kg range along the immediate coastal area south of FLL across Biscayne Bay to Elliott Key and Key Largo. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be possible offshore, based on modified MFL RAOB and model soundings. Though theta-e and low-level lift will continue to be stronger over open water, where the bulk of convection should remain, a few thunderstorms may reach land before dissipating. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/11/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 10 12:47:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 10 12:47:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida, mainly this afternoon/evening. ...FL mainly this afternoon/evening... In the wake of deep midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface cold front will continue to move southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and FL peninsula through tonight. Daytime heating across central/south FL and a diffuse pre-frontal trough will help focus the development of a few thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon/evening across southeast FL where there may be some local sea breeze enhancement. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak vertical shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. ...Elsewhere through tonight... A lake-effect snow band will persist through the afternoon off Lake Ontario. Shallow buoyancy is expected within this band, but the entire profile will be colder than -5 to -6 C, which suggests that lightning production will be sparse (if at all). Farther east, any ocean-effect convection deep enough to produce lightning flashes should remain well off the southeast New England coast tonight. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/10/2022 Read more