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MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Massachusetts and Coastal Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071459Z - 071900Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue across eastern Massachusetts for the next 1-2 hours before spreading northward across coastal Maine later this morning. Snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show an organized snow band over eastern MA that has persisted for the past several hours. Under this band, several surface obs are reporting visibility down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of heavy snowfall rates amid weak winds. Recent LSRs from the region lend credence to these observations with heavy snow accumulations up to 12 inches reported. Strong synoptic ascent within the left-exit region of a 100+ knot upper-level jet is expected to linger over coastal New England over the next few hours as the upper-level shortwave trough continues to shift northeast. Latest RAP analyses reveal a tight baroclinic zone between 850-700 mb just off the MA coast with vigorous warm air advection and frontogenetical ascent organizing mesoscale lift. The placement and evolution of the baroclinic zone, along with trajectories from recent guidance, suggest the stronger frontogenetical forcing will shift offshore for much of the day in the coming hours. However, warm air advection through the 850-700 mb layer will likely increase later this morning as winds strengthen in response to the deepening low. This warm advection regime should be rather broad and encompass coastal ME. Coupled with strong synoptic ascent, this may support heavy snow potential with snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour later this morning and into the early afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/07/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 41567105 42307101 43177081 43767018 44206930 44416870 44416821 44236798 43916842 43686904 43246979 42667000 42196997 41726976 41216998 41217063 41267096 41567105 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 7 15:01:02 UTC 2022.

 Nacogdoches 1802 is now named the Beaver Pond fire, estimated at 350 acres and 20% containment as of 23:00. All three dozers are working together, making good progress. The fire activity has moderated. Operations normal no unmet needs. Cause of ignition is currently under

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida today into early tonight, and mainly tonight along the Texas coast. ...Synopsis... Within the primary polar jet stream, one shortwave trough and an associated deepening cyclone will move off the New England coast during the day, while a couple of upstream troughs progress inland over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin. The majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies is under the influence of a continental polar air mass, with the only exceptions being across south FL today and along the TX coast overnight. After morning convection dissipates near the FL Keys, a surface cold front moving southward across central into south FL may help focus isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon through early tonight near the southeast FL coast. Otherwise, moisture return will resume across the TX coast by tonight, with sufficient moistening just above the surface to support an isolated thunderstorm threat overnight within a weak warm advection regime. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/07/2022 Read more

Water authorities from Arizona, Nevada and California signed the 500+ Plan on Dec. 15, voluntarily offering to reduce the share of water to be taken from the Colorado River to keep Lake Mead fuller. The plan is that the states will take 500,000 acre-feet less in 2022 and 2023, depending on water usage and conservation in the area, with the aim of averting mandatory cuts in the near future. States must also make a financial investment amounting to $40 million from Arizona, and $20 million each from Nevada, California and the Central Arizona Project, which operates a canal system that delivers Colorado River water in Arizona. The federal government would match the funding, for a total of $200 million. Associated Press News (New York), Dec 14, 2021 Phoenix is voluntarily contributing water as part of a regional “500+ Plan” to support Lake Mead and postpone more water shortages. The plan has not yet been finalized, but Arizona, Nevada and California will contribute water and funds over the next two years. Associated Press News (New York), Jan 7, 2022

Water rates for Los Angeles’ heaviest water users rose up to $3.60 per 748 gallons of water, effective Jan. 1. the Los Angeles Department Board of Water and Power Commissioners approved the rate changes in September 2021 to cover increasing water supply costs from customers who use a lot of water. Spectrum News 1 (El Segundo, Calif.), Jan 5, 2022

Precipitation helped firefighters increase the containment of the estimated 1,000-acre Lost Cove Fire to 80%. Watauga Democrat (Boone, N.C.), Jan. 5, 2022

Tarrant County is in a 90-day burn ban beginning Jan. 4, prohibiting all outdoor burning. The Tarrant County Fire Marshal’s Office requested the ban “to protect the lives and property of Tarrant County residents.” Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Texas), Jan 4, 2022

The Catawba-Wateree Drought Management Advisory Group (CW-DMAG) stated that dry weather conditions warranted putting the Catawba-Wateree River Basin in Stage 0 of the group’s drought protocol. Stage 0 is a drought watch stage that alerts CW-DMAG members to monitor conditions more closely. No other actions are required at this point, but water and energy conservation are strongly encouraged with the expectation of dry weather in coming months. Precipitation was less than half of normal in the last four months of 2021, so water storage in the 11-reservoir Catawba-Wateree River Basin was low and streamflows feeding the reservoirs were below normal. CN2 News (Rock Hill, S.C.) Jan 4, 2022

Thanks to abundant rainfall refilling reservoirs, the Marin Municipal Water District was no longer in a big rush to construct the $100 million pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge which would provide more water for MMWD customers if reservoirs were to run dry. The region received more than 200% of its normal rainfall from October through December, and the district’s seven reservoirs refilled from 32% of capacity in mid-October to nearly 93% in early January 2022. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), Jan 5, 2022 After a number of atmospheric rivers that brought tremendous rain to Marin County, the reservoirs have refilled from 32% to 74% of capacity on Dec. 17 and water officials were reconsidering some drought restrictions and penalties that were introduced earlier. Since July, the Marin Municipal Water District has received about 34 inches of rain, or about 240% of normal to date. The utility continues to plan for water projects like the $100 million pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge that would pump in water purchased from Yuba County. The district began planning the pipeline when it appeared that its local reservoir supplies could be depleted as soon as July 2022. The San Jose Mercury News (Calif.), Dec 19, 2021 More than 17 inches of desperately needed rain fell at Lake Lagunitas reservoir Oct. 18-25. The 17+ inches represents about a third of the 52 inches typically received in a year. Water supplies in the district’s seven reservoirs in the Mount Tamalpais watershed rose from 32% to 43% of total capacity, with the total storage increasing from about 25,772 acre-feet on Oct. 18 to 34,535 acre-feet on Oct. 25. While the rain is beneficial, the Marin Municipal Water District is still planning to build the 8-mile pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge to bring in additional water. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), Oct 25, 2021 The Marin Municipal Water District was taking steps toward constructing an emergency water pipeline if the coming winter is dry like the last, to avoid running out of water next summer. A consulting firm was seeking out potential water rights holders in the Central Valley that might be willing to sell their allotments. In the meantime, it is hoped that conservation efforts will continue to improve so the pipeline and temporary desalination plant can remain unused backup plans. While conservation of 40% has been requested, residents conserved about 19% recently. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), June 23, 2021 The potential for water shortages in Marin County was so high that the Marin Municipal Water District was talking with East Bay officials about building a pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge to bring water into the county if the upcoming winter shapes up to be as dry as the past two. The emergency pipeline was once used during the 1976-77 drought. A temporary desalination plant was another of several options under consideration to boost water supplies if the drought were to continue into a third year. Marin only received 20 inches of rain during the winter, less than fell during the 1976-77 drought and the second least amount in the 143 years that records have been kept. The MMWD approved mandatory water restrictions on April 20 and could tighten restrictions further for its 190,000 customers in central and southern Marin. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), April 27, 2021

Rain and the Jan. 3 snowstorm allowed officials in Danville and Pittsylvania County to lift burn bans that have been in effect since Nov. 30. Go Dan River (Danville, Va.), Jan 5, 2022 Open burn bans were in effect for Amherst County, Carroll County, Charlotte County, Danville, Halifax County, Henry County and Pittsylvania County. The burn bans began between Nov. 30 and Dec. 3 and will end when conditions improve. WSLS-TV NBC Channel 10 (Roanoke, Va.), Dec 3, 2021

A water shortage in the Colorado River Basin was announced by the Bureau of Reclamation on Aug. 16 as Lake Mead fell to record low levels. Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will receive less water in 2022, with Arizona farmers seeing the biggest cut in water deliveries as the state gets 18% less of its share of river water. Nevada will lose 7%, while Mexico will get about 5% less. Associated Press News (New York), Aug 16, 2021

The Hyatt Powerplant at Lake Oroville began generating hydropower again after shutting down in early August for lack of water. On Jan. 3, the water level was 716 feet, or 39% of capacity, considerably higher than the 640 feet when the plant closed, which had not happened since it began operating in the late 1960s. The plant was not yet operating at full capacity as water was being conserved for use in the spring and summer. Water was being released at 900 cubic feet per second and was producing 30 megawatts of electricity, although the plant’s maximum capacity is 750 megawatts. The Sacramento Bee (Calif.), Jan 4, 2022 The power plant at Lake Oroville stopped generating electricity on Aug. 5 as the lake reached a new low and was at 24% of capacity. The Edward Hyatt power plant is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in the state and can provide roughly 1% of the state’s peak electricity demand. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), Aug 5, 2021

Californians conserved just 6.8% of their water use in November 2021, compared to November 2020, considerably below the 15% Gov. Newsom requested. Since July, urban water consumption fell by just 6%. In light of the need for more water conservation, the State Water Resources Control Board passed new conservation regulations intended to help curb wasteful outdoor water use. The emergency regulations would be in effect for one year and would allow the violator to be fined up to $500. While the timing of the new regulations might seem odd, given the recent heavy precipitation, California cannot count on the storms continuing as the precipitation outlook for the next three months was drier than average. The Sacramento Bee (Calif.), Jan 4, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 4 14:12:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 4 14:12:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across western Washington. ...Synopsis... Cold midlevel temperatures and associated steep low-midlevel lapse rates will persist near the WA coast today, with an associated threat for isolated lightning flashes mainly this morning into early afternoon. Thereafter, warming profiles aloft with rising heights, and resultant lowering of equilibrium levels, will reduce the potential for convection deep enough to produce lightning. Otherwise, a cold and/or dry continental air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only potential exceptions will be across the FL Straits and just off the Carolinas, but any deep convection/lightning flashes should remain sparse and confined to offshore waters. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/04/2022 Read more