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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be oriented over the Atlantic coast states Saturday morning, with a ridge over the Plains and another trough over the eastern Pacific/West Coast vicinity. This pattern will be fairly progressive, with the wave train shifting east through the period. This will bring a trough inland over the western U.S., with a fairly intense jet streak oriented over southern CA into the Lower CO Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. As the Pacific trough moves inland, cooling midlevel temperatures will offer meager instability over parts of CA, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the late morning into the evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Northern/central CA... A modest-amplitude shortwave trough will shift inland across CA this afternoon and into the northern Great Basin tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates may support very isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Scant buoyancy is expected owing to boundary-layer dew points only peaking in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast and into the Central Valley. This in combination with increasingly veered low-level flow should mitigate potential for organized convection. ...South FL... Relatively low-topped convection persists in a pre-frontal convective band. Weak mid-level lapse rates in the 12Z observed and forecast soundings suggest convection will struggle to deepen in the absence of appreciable height falls this afternoon. It is plausible that no additional lightning will occur before convection shifts east/south of the peninsula this evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 01/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build across the central CONUS today with cool conditions for much of the eastern CONUS. Farther west, persistent troughing along the West Coast will continue to bring cool, wet conditions. Some warm and dry conditions are expected across the southern High Plains, but winds should remain light today. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Some of the wheat in Pratt County has not been able to push through the soil, due to the wind and lack of moisture. The farmer also noted that in parts of the county and southwest Kansas, that there was no wheat standing. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Jan 12, 2023

Crook County officials have declared a drought, due to record low streamflows and reservoir storage levels, despite near normal snowpack in the Ochocos. Prineville Reservoir was at just 11% capacity, while Ochoco Reservoir was at 10%. A farmer had to haul water to his livestock because the spring was not flowing. Central Oregon Daily (Bend), Jan 12, 2023

The corn yield in 2022 was slightly worse than in 2021, but better than expected, given the drought, according to an Iowa State University farm management specialist. The projected corn yield in Iowa was 202 bushels per acre for 2022, 1 percent below the yield in 2021. Some parts of Iowa, like the northwest and particularly the southeast, endured harsh droughts that lowered yields. Soybeans did a little worse than corn with yields down 6%, compared to 2021. The projected soybean yield for Iowa is 59 bushels per acre, and about 50-55 for Southeast Iowa. Southeast Iowa Union (Fairfield, Iowa), Jan 13, 2023 Drought and heat have been rough on Iowa's corn and soybeans. In the past couple of weeks, soybeans in northwest Iowa have turned lighter and were starting to burn up. The soybeans have wilted, but they weren't just aborting pods. Some were starting to shut down and die in places. The ears on the corn were smaller than usual. The lack of moisture and nitrogen has the corn firing on the lower part of the plant. While rain could still help with soybean yield in the northwest part of the state, rain on the corn may help prevent any additional yield loss. In southern Iowa, drought has likely reduced yields for soybeans, and corn test weights were lower also. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Aug. 25, 2022

Drought during the 2022 summer for New Jersey cut into hay production and the soybean crop for Monmouth County farmers. A hay and straw grower got just one cutting, although he normally gets two or three. A soybean grower near Cream Ridge did not even try to harvest his crop, it was so poor. The Two River Times (Red Bank, N.J.), Jan 12, 2022

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GPT TO 35 NW MOB TO 40 WSW SEM TO 20 NW SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055 ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-085-097-099-101-129- 131-122040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-113-122040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA MSC039-131-122040- Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 121620Z - 122300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to spread east-northeastward and tend to intensify into this afternoon, with at least some potential for several storms including a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mobile AL to 30 miles south southeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RMG TO 25 E CHA TO 10 ESE TYS. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-057-085-111-115-123-129-187-213-227-291-122040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CHEROKEE DAWSON FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS UNION NCC039-122040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC139-122040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POLK Read more

WW 19 TORNADO GA NC TN 121600Z - 122200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Far western North Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1100 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will pose a risk for damaging winds and/or a tornado through early/mid-afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Chattanooga TN to 65 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0056 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121919Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase through the afternoon. Watch issuance likely needed soon. DISCUSSION...As of 19z, an established line of thunderstorms was ongoing across portions of Alabama, with more discrete cells located ahead of and south of the line in southwestern Alabama and Mississippi. Across southeastern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle, air mass destabilization from daytime heating has led to surface based CAPE values around 1500 J/kg. KEOX (Ft. Rucker) has seen an increase in 0-1km and 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the last few hours as 850 mb flow has increased to around 40-50 kts. 0-1km storm relative helicity is currently around 230 m2/s2. This environment is expected to persist and will support the risk for tornadoes, especially within any discrete cells that can maintain supercell characteristics ahead of the main line. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30618677 30988662 31288623 31608584 31978532 32168497 32228469 32188440 31958424 31578422 31208419 30908424 30598447 30388465 30238484 30128503 30048541 29998586 30208641 30618677 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... The southern Plains will be in northwesterly flow aloft throughout the day tomorrow, which will promote surface high pressure across the region. Guidance suggests diurnal mixing will drive RH into the 15-25% range across eastern New Mexico and west Texas during the afternoon atop dry 1- and 10-hr fuels. However, generally weak winds around the surface anticyclone prevent the introduction of any Elevated areas this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 18... FOR CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Areas affected...central AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 18... Valid 121900Z - 122000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues. SUMMARY...A strong to intense tornado (~EF3) is likely ongoing across central AL and after tornado demise, a wind-damage risk will likely continue into east-central AL. DISCUSSION...KBMX radar imagery shows an intense low-level mesocyclone moving through an adequately moist/moderately buoyant airmass across central AL. SPC data analytics indicates a strong/intense tornado is likely ongoing across Autauga County, AL. The area VAD/s show large hodographs with 300 m2/s2 0-0.5 km effective SRH. The strong shear/buoyancy will likely aid in sustaining the supercell after eventual tornado demise once the squall line overtakes the supercell. Nonetheless, a significant wind-damage threat and some tornado risk will likely continue into eastern AL through the mid afternoon. ..Smith.. 01/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX... LAT...LON 32638663 32998588 33028569 32888557 32778559 32488627 32508662 32638663 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-027-029-081-087-109-111-113-123-121940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS CLAY CLEBURNE LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC011-013-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-089-097-113-117-121- 135-139-143-145-149-151-157-159-171-195-197-199-207-211-215-217- 219-223-231-233-247-255-259-263-269-281-285-293-297-307-311- 121940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD DEKALB DOUGLAS FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GWINNETT HALL HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY Read more

WW 21 TORNADO AL GA 121805Z - 130000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Western and northern Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken band of semi-discrete storms will move east-northeastward across east-central Alabama into west-central/northern Georgia this afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Atlanta GA to 10 miles south southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LEX TO 30 NNW JKL TO 25 WSW HTS TO 5 WSW CRW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054 ..MOORE..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-051-063-065-109-115-121-125-127-129-147-153-175-189-197- 199-203-231-235-237-121940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE WVC099-121940- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCB TO 15 WSW PIB TO 35 ENE MEI TO 30 WNW GAD TO 50 NW CHA. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-015-019-021-037-049-055-065-071-095-105-115-117-121- 121840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON COOSA DEKALB ETOWAH HALE JACKSON MARSHALL PERRY ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA MSC023-035-073-121840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FORREST LAMAR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 17 TORNADO AL MS TN 121255Z - 121900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 17 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Central and eastern Mississippi Exreme southern middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 655 AM until 100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of pre-frontal storms will increase in intensity through the day while spreading eastward from Mississippi into Alabama. The more intense supercells could produce tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, along with isolated large hail. The threat for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase through the day as some upscale growth occurs and bowing segments evolve through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 45 miles west of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Thompson Read more