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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance maintains low probability for substantial overlap of near 20% RH (most likely across the OK/TX Panhandles) and 15+ mph winds (most likely across west/northwest TX). See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will build across the southern Plains as an upper-level trough digs into southern California today. With a modest increase in mid-level winds across the southern Rockies, a lee trough will deepen in the High Plains. Surface winds in eastern New Mexico and western Texas will increase by the afternoon to 15-20 mph. Despite the breezy conditions, RH is not expected to drop below critical thresholds. Fire weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Despite increasing winds, recent ensemble guidance maintains low probabilities for RH values below critical thresholds across the southern Plains. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a shortwave upper-level ridge will move over the southern Plains. This will occur in advance of another upper-level trough that will be digging into southern California and parts of the Southwest by Sunday morning. Stronger mid-level winds will continue across the southern Rockies. A deeper lee trough in the central/southern High Plains is expected as compared to Friday. This should act to increase wind speeds in eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Despite stronger surface winds, temperatures are still expected to remain cool enough to keep RH above critical thresholds. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 30 18:37:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 30 18:37:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow/Saturday evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southeast as a second upper trough impinges on the California Coastline tomorrow/Saturday. Across the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS, adequate low-level moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a weak surface low accompanying the mid-level trough. Strong flow aloft overspreading the low-level moisture will provide adequate buoyancy, shear, and lift for organized thunderstorms across the Southeast, with a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Southeast... The onset of diurnal heating will support surface temperatures and dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70 F, with tall and thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE evident in point forecast soundings given modest tropospheric lapse rates. Southwesterly 850 mb flow exceeding 35 kts, with even stronger flow aloft, will promote elongated hodographs and associated 40+ kts of effective speed shear for some storm organization. The severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated given limited instability. Nonetheless, some of the stronger storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two, starting from the FL/AL coastline area during the late morning hours and progressing eastward with time to portions of southern SC by early evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two are possible this afternoon near the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms continues to progress eastward across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. It appears that these storms have likely peaked in intensity, and are now moving into a progressively drier and more stable low-level air mass. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will remain capable of isolated gusty/damaging wind gusts or a brief spin up for another few hours. Please refer to MCD #2079 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 12/30/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with no changes required. Afternoon RH reductions into the upper 20s/low 30s are likely across parts of the southern High Plains amid scattered clouds, and winds are expected to remain near/below 15 mph for most locations. ..Moore.. 12/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the lower Texas Gulf Coast into the central Gulf Coast region today. Moderate mid-level winds will be present across the southern Rockies in the wake of the trough. A weak lee trough is expected to develop in the central and southern High Plains. While it is possible some locally elevated conditions could develop in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, broader winds are expected to remain weak and some lingering cloud cover and cooler temperatures will also tend to keep RH higher. Fire weather concerns should remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 29 17:59:01 UTC 2022.

MD 2074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291751Z - 292015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through late afternoon. A couple damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or instance of marginal severe hail may occur. The sparse severe threat suggests a WW issuance is not currently needed. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic/regional radar and water vapor satellite imagery shows a gradual intensification of semi-discrete convection embedded within confluence bands across western LA associated with a WAA regime. 30 dBZ echo tops have recently been reaching the 30-45 kft range, with individual embedded cells showing brief bouts of weak, transient low-level rotation. The mid-level trough continues to slowly approach from the rest, resulting in a gradual intensification of deep-layer speed shear per latest mesoanalysis fields. RAP analysis fields also show an embedded 500 mb max across central TX slowly approaching the MS Valley, which should further augment deep-layer ascent. In addition, continued insolation of a fairly moist low-level airmass is contributing to MLCAPE reaching 1000 J/kg. The increasing lift, buoyancy and shear should foster continued trends of storm organization and intensification through the afternoon. However, MLCAPE should be constrained to tall-thin profiles given 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and low-level directional shear should also remain modest (especially around 3 km, as shown by weaknesses in the latest KPOE VAD profiler data). As such, expected storm modes should be brief LEWPS/transient supercells capable of supporting a couple of strong wind gusts and perhaps a bout of marginal severe hail or a brief tornado. Given the likely isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. Additional rounds of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) are likely later this evening into tonight, though this threat also appears to be isolated. Nonetheless, later severe potential may be addressed by additional MCDs as needed. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 12/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30049714 32069550 33369422 33439308 33059262 32389245 31599255 30919291 30419364 29989447 29669541 30049714 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... The latest in a series of mid/upper-level shortwave troughs is forecast to move across the southern Great Plains on Friday. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Relatively dry and breezy conditions will be possible across parts of eastern NM into west TX on Friday afternoon in response to the developing lee trough/surface low, but with low-level flow generally expected to be weaker and have somewhat less of a downslope component compared to previous days, the potential for more than localized elevated conditions appears limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The only change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northeastward into west-central and southwest OK. Here, temperatures are climbing into the upper 50s/lower 60s (aided by clearing/thinning high clouds) ahead of a slow-moving cold front. And, additional boundary-layer heating/mixing into a remnant low-level jet (sampled by regional VWP) should support a couple hours of breezy/gusty westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 12/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern High Plains at the start of the period northeastward toward the Great Lakes region by early Friday morning. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to move from Kansas toward the upper Midwest, as a weakening cold front moves through portions of the southern Plains. ...Northeast NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains... Seasonably warm overnight temperatures and a residual belt of stronger westerly low-level flow will support the relatively quick development of elevated fire-weather conditions by late morning across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are expected through early afternoon, as RH values drop into the 20-25% range. Winds are expected to weaken by mid/late afternoon, but may remain sufficient to support elevated conditions through most of the day, with RH potentially falling below 20% for a few hours across parts of the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast. An upper trough currently over northwest Mexico will track eastward across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the trough will maintain modest influx of moisture, with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s and marginal CAPE values across southern LA and far southern MS/AL. A consensus of 12z model guidance indicates a line of thunderstorms will extend from central LA into the Gulf at the beginning the period. This convection will track eastward into southern MS/AL through the day, and into the western FL panhandle after dark. The main upper support will lift north of this region, while the greatest instability will remain offshore. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two. ..Hart.. 12/29/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST TX/WESTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two are possible mainly this afternoon and tonight, across parts of east/southeast Texas, western/central Louisiana and the Arklatex region. ...East TX/western LA/southern AR this afternoon into tonight... A remnant lee cyclone will move north-northeastward from northeast KS toward WI, in association with a lead shortwave trough. A separate/upstream shortwave trough will progress east-northeastward from TX Big Bend to east TX by the end of the period. A plume of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s) will continue to spread inland from the western Gulf of Mexico to east TX/western LA/southern AR through late evening. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within this moisture plume near the Sabine River, and additional convection is expected through the day along the moist axis and along/immediately east of a surface trough in TX. The storm environment will be characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, with modestly long/curved hodographs (effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2). Within the broader bands of convection, some embedded/weak supercell structures are expected, with an attendant threat for isolated wind damage/marginally severe hail and a brief/weak tornado or two later this afternoon through late evening. Overnight, convection will spread eastward in one or more bands across AR and western LA, with somewhat larger buoyancy confined over time to southwest LA. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 12/29/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z Short-range guidance consensus depicts clearing skies from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle during the late morning/early afternoon, supporting a corridor of upper 50s surface temperatures and 15-20 percent RH -- aided by continued downslope warming/drying. Here, an initially tight pressure gradient and enhanced westerly flow through the boundary layer should yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds with locally higher gusts. While surface winds will subside during the late afternoon owing to a weakening pressure gradient and low-level jet, a few hours of strong/gusty winds and low RH atop modestly receptive fuels should favor elevated conditions from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle during the late morning/early afternoon. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A passing shortwave will bring breezy westerly flow amid continued locally dry conditions on Thursday. Deterministic models exhibit spread in afternoon relative humidity. HREF ensemble probabilities are around 10-20 percent for localized areas of elevated conditions across portions of the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon. Given the low probability of occurrence across a limited region, no areas have been highlighted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 28 18:42:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 28 18:42:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN/WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from east Texas and western Louisiana northward into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will lift northeast across the central Plains and Great Lakes on Thursday as a surface cold front moves east, extending from WI to the TX/OK border vicinity of the Red River by evening. An increase in boundary-layer moisture will continue from the western Gulf Coast northward in advance of the front, with low 50s dew points possible as far north as southern IL. ...Arklatex... Despite substantial cloud cover, steady moisture advection will contribute to MLCAPE by late afternoon ranging from around 500 J/kg over central AR to 1000-1500 J/kg across southeast TX and coastal waters. The more substantial large-scale ascent with the mid-level trough will remain largely north of the risk area, however a glancing influence combined with low-level warm/moist advection should contribute to the initial development of scattered thunderstorms over east TX/northwest LA during the late afternoon. Forecast wind profiles support organized storms with strong/isolated severe wind potential as the primary risk, especially as storms evolve with time into a predominantly linear mode Thursday evening. The severe threat should lessen with time overnight as instability diminishes. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded northeastward into the northeastern TX Panhandle and northwest OK. Surface observations over the northeastern TX Panhandle already show 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. And, despite increasing cloud coverage from the west, thinner clouds and related boundary-layer heating/mixing will support the east-northeastward expansion of these conditions into northwest OK this afternoon. Elsewhere, an expansive area of elevated conditions remains likely over much of west TX this afternoon, with locally critical meteorological conditions possible from the TX Trans-Pecos into the TX South Plains. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to spread over the southern High Plains on Wednesday as a surface low deepens across Kansas. West to southwest surface gradients will increase across portions of western and central Texas with surface winds around 20-25 mph (gusting 30-40 mph). The driest and windiest conditions look to extend from Trans-Pecos into the Texas South Plains where afternoon relative humidity may drop as low as 15-20 percent. Fuel dryness remains normal to above normal across much of this region, with the exception of the more fine fuels. An Elevated delineation is supported, given the largely unreceptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more