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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula and parts of California Friday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A highly amplified flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S. Friday, as a trough over the East maintains intensity as it moves slowly toward the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough -- within a broader area of cyclonic flow over the eastern Pacific -- will move inland and weaken with time, though additional/embedded short-wave troughing offshore will maintain the overall amplitude of the cyclonic pattern. In between the two troughs, sharp ridging will move eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains through the end of the period. As the eastern upper trough advances, a surface cold front -- trailing from a deep low moving northeastward across New England -- will quickly clear the middle and southern Atlantic Coast region early in the day. The trailing portion of this front will move steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the day, likely clearing south Florida and the Keys by early evening. Ahead of this front, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely shift southward across Florida during the day. Though a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, any severe potential appears to be quite low -- insufficient to warrant inclusion of any severe-weather probabilities. Elsewhere, the only other potential for thunder evident within the CONUS will be across the northern and central California coastal areas, and possibly into the central Valley, as the aforementioned, weakening short-wave trough moves inland. ..Goss.. 01/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. Several damaging wind gusts are likely, though occasional bouts of large hail and at least a few tornadoes are also expected. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast States... A wavy/modestly broken quasi-linear line of strong/severe convection extends from eastern Tennessee southwestward into northeast/central Alabama and into southeast Mississippi, with much of it effectively ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints are commonly in the low 60s F and this will continue to adequately support severe-caliber storms in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. This is well-represented by a special 15z observed sounding from Birmingham AL. A mixed convective mode is expected to persist regionally, although somewhat more discrete storms are more viable across central/southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi/Florida Panhandle owing to cloud breaks and more modest forcing for ascent. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and some low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) will support this mix of supercells and bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the most common threat, and semi-discrete supercells in the band will pose the threat for tornadoes, along with embedded circulations in line segments. The storms will spread eastward into/across Georgia and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas this evening, before weakening as the convection outpaces the unstable warm sector. ...Kentucky/Lower Ohio Valley into western/northern Tennessee... The fast-moving convective line from earlier this morning has largely diminished in intensity as it moved into a more stable air mass toward the Ohio/West Virginia border. While semi-plentiful/multiple corridors of convection will tend to further hinder destabilization, a pre-frontal reservoir of instability could influence additional severe storm development particularly across southern/eastern Kentucky into western/middle Tennessee this afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...South Texas... In the dry post-frontal airmass across deep south TX, recent model guidance has trended stronger with surface winds and lower with RH over the last several runs. Short-hour fuels have also responded more robustly than previously expected given dry and windy conditions over the preceding 24 hours. As such, brief elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, with wind gusts to 30 mph and RH near or below 20%, are possible across south Texas. A small Elevated are was added to the Rio Grande Valley for the best overlap of dry/gusty conditions and favorable fuels. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern today will be characterized by an amplifying trough over the central and eastern CONUS, with an associated surface cyclone over the Ohio River valley. Northerly flow will push a cold front into the Gulf of Mexico by midday. In far south Texas, expect diurnal mixing to result in RH near 20-25% and gusts to 15-20 mph with localized areas of RH below 20% and gusts to 20-25 mph near the Rio Grande. 1-hr fuel moisture in the region is near 3-5%, indicating fine fuels are receptive to fire spread. However, the localized, transient nature of the elevated fire risk will prevent the introduction of Elevated areas this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HOP TO 30 W BWG TO 25 NNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 25 SSW SDF TO 20 SE SDF TO 15 NW LEX. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-061-067-079-085-087- 093-099-113-123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179-181-207-213-217- 227-229-239-121640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE NELSON NICHOLAS RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

The Tucson City Council voted unanimously in favor of increasing the Tucson Water CAP surcharge by 30 cents, due to the need to maintain and upgrade aging infrastructure and the drought declaration on the Colorado River. KGUN 9 Online (Tucson, Ariz.), Jan 11, 2022

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO THE OZARKS...AND EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and early Thursday morning from northern Arkansas into parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Aside from a nudge northward of the risk area across southeastern Missouri, no changes to the outlook appear necessary at this time, with current forecast reasoning still reflective of expectations. Showers and slightly elevated storms will likely develop near/after midnight, initially over the Ozarks vicinity, and then expanding eastward across the Mid Mississippi and into the Lower Ohio Valley region, where limited -- but all-hazards -- severe potential may evolve with a few of the strongest storms. ..Goss.. 01/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/ ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough will emerge from the southern Rockies/southern High Plains today and reach the Ozarks/ArkLaTex late tonight, with surface cyclogenesis occurring tonight from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley in tandem with a northward-expanding warm/moist sector. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will become established late tonight as far north as the Mid-South/western Kentucky vicinity. The warm sector will be capped until late tonight, with the moistening occurring beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates. By around 06z tonight, the low-level moistening and forcing for ascent within the left-exit region of the strong mid/upper-level jet will support thunderstorm development across northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri. Storms will subsequently move northeastward toward western Kentucky and other parts of the lower Ohio Valley by 09-12z. The steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km), MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support slightly elevated convection (mix of clusters and some supercell structures) capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds late tonight and early Thursday. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 11 19:36:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in the dry post-frontal airmass across far south Texas. However, marginal fuels and the limited duration should keep concerns below elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the southeastern CONUS through the day tomorrow/Thursday. Northerly surface flow on the west side of the associated surface cyclone will push a surface cold front southward and off the Texas coast into the Gulf of Mexico by midday. Behind this front, expect winds to be breezy (gusts to 15-20 mph) across much of Texas and Oklahoma, but below Elevated criteria for sustained winds. Relative humidity in this region will largely be above elevated criteria, except in south Texas, where 15-20% RH is possible by Thursday afternoon. Fuels in south Texas are modestly dry, with ERCs near the 60th-80th percentile for the time of year. Therefore, Elevated areas were not included in this outlook, though transient elevated conditions may occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0041 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Areas affected...southern Nebraska Panhandle and Northeastern Colorado Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111852Z - 112145Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow will continue to shift eastward across the Nebraska Panhandle southward into northeastern Colorado. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible. DISCUSSION...A band of heavy snow has been ongoing across eastern Wyoming this afternoon and continues to shift eastward across the Nebraska Panhandle into northeastern Colorado. Surface objective analysis and RAP model sounding indicate mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km coinciding with deep saturation of the dendritic growth zone across much of the region from northeast Colorado into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. This will support snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr. Surface observations have indicated areas of heavy snow with <1/4 visibility across I-80 in Nebraska. Expect quick accumulation and hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and accumulating snow on roadways. ..Thornton.. 01/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41080464 41550441 41970399 42030344 41860303 41580270 41280262 40920251 40330260 39820272 39320304 38890350 38770406 38910450 39440466 41080464 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a brief tornado or two may also occur. ...Synopsis... A strengthening upper trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday. By the end of the period, a highly amplified flow field aloft will prevail over the U.S., with a Pacific trough approaching the West Coast, a ridge across the Intermountain West and Canadian Rockies, and a trough over the East. At the surface, a low initially progged to reside near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will deepen steadily as it shifts northeastward, reaching the Pennsylvania/New York vicinity late. South of the low, a trailing cold front will cross the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states through the day, reaching the Appalachians during the evening. Overnight, the front will continue making steady eastward progress, likely reaching the Atlantic Coast near the end of the period. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast... Showers and scattered thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of the advancing cold front, from the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys southward into the central Gulf Coast states. While instability should remain limited overall, due to return of an incompletely modified Gulf boundary layer and substantial cloud cover, storms should nonetheless increase gradually in coverage through the day as a subtle increase in warm-sector CAPE occurs. Given antecedent stability, and a low-level capping inversion, ascent near the front will likely be required to eliminate the inversion and permit storm development -- which suggests largely linear storm mode. Still, with deep-layer flow veering modestly and speed increasing substantially with height, organized updrafts along with locally rotating elements within the line are expected. Damaging winds will likely be the primary risk, likely peaking through the afternoon and then very gradually diminishing during the evening -- in part due to a less favorable thermodynamic environment expected to persist east of the southern Appalachians. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, across a broad area -- mainly of the brief variety within the linear band of convection. Severe risk will likely decrease more substantially overnight, as frontal convection nears -- and eventually clears -- the Atlantic coast. Convection lingering across Florida as the front slides southward across the Peninsula overnight should remain sub-severe. ..Goss.. 01/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...Southern high Plains... Morning satellite imagery showed lingering cirrostratus across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. This will likely delay heating and mixing across the eastern edge of the outlook area. As such, confidence in sustained elevated/critical conditions is lower, and minor adjustments to the eastern extent have been made. Otherwise, model guidance has trended stronger with winds in recent runs, and isolated gusts of 45+ mph will be possible across portions of west TX and far eastern NM as deep vertical mixing and flow aloft strengthen early this afternoon. Widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are possible where short-hour fuels have dried sufficiently over the preceding days. Please see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains today, and the associated surface cyclone will create gusty winds and dry conditions across the southern High Plains. The guidance consensus indicates the potential for RH of 10-15% and gusts to 35-45 mph over a large portion of the region during the afternoon. Also, after several days of warm, dry conditions, 1-hr fuel moisture levels are near 3-7% across west Texas and into southwest Oklahoma, indicating fine fuels have dried sufficiently to be receptive to fire spread. For the above reasons, elevated conditions were highlighted across eastern New Mexico, west Texas, and into southwest Oklahoma. Additionally, critical fire conditions have been added in far eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and early Thursday morning from northern Arkansas into parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough will emerge from the southern Rockies/southern High Plains today and reach the Ozarks/ArkLaTex late tonight, with surface cyclogenesis occurring tonight from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley in tandem with a northward-expanding warm/moist sector. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will become established late tonight as far north as the Mid-South/western Kentucky vicinity. The warm sector will be capped until late tonight, with the moistening occurring beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates. By around 06z tonight, the low-level moistening and forcing for ascent within the left-exit region of the strong mid/upper-level jet will support thunderstorm development across northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri. Storms will subsequently move northeastward toward western Kentucky and other parts of the lower Ohio Valley by 09-12z. The steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km), MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support slightly elevated convection (mix of clusters and some supercell structures) capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds late tonight and early Thursday. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/11/2023 Read more

The drought in Kansas was bad and getting worse, according to farmers who were selling cattle. One farmer is trying to keep his fields moist by low tilling and planting cover crops. He noted that he double-cropped soybeans, but the plants grew four to six inches tall and died for lack of moisture. The wheat in Hodgeman County was not looking very good, according to the county extension agent. A Northwest Research Extension Center Multi-County agronomist stated that they were getting to the point where farmers were not harvesting crops because there was nothing to harvest. If rain does not fall soon, spring crops will be affected. KSN.com (Wichita, Kan.), Jan 10, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments. Model timing with the passage of the cold front across the southern High Plains has trended faster in recent runs favoring more brief fire-weather conditions across the northern TX Panhandle. However, uncertainty on the extent and longevity of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains high. Thus, the Elevated area has been trimmed slightly south to account for this. Otherwise, the previous discussion remains valid. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject over the central Plains during the day tomorrow/Wednesday. An attendant surface cyclone will produce strong, dry downslope flow on Wednesday afternoon across the southern high Plains, where guidance indicates low RH (10-15%) and strong gusts to 25-30 mph are possible. However, 10-hr fuels are only modestly drier than expected for early-mid January. For these reasons, an Elevated area has been introduced over eastern New Mexico and west Texas, though transient critical fire weather conditions are possible in the region. Some uncertainty exists regarding the timing of a cold front on Wednesday afternoon, which will determine the northern extent of elevated fire weather conditions across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 10 19:36:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 10 19:36:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Limited risk for a few strong wind gusts or a brief tornado may evolve late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, across a portion of the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley area. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the Rockies is forecast to move eastward across the Plains through the day, and then to the Mississippi Valley vicinity late, while deepening gradually with time. As this trough advances, a surface cyclone is forecast to pivot eastward from the central High Plains vicinity, to the lower Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Parts of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys... As the aforementioned surface low advances, a cold front will shift southeastward across the southern Plains/Arklatex and eventually the Mississippi Delta region through the second half of the period. Ahead of the front, northward advection of a partially modified airmass will occur, beneath a pronounced low-level thermal inversion. While the strong capping will largely hinder convective development, showers and a few thunderstorms may develop during the last several hours of the period across the Mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity. While CAPE will be quite limited (no more than a few hundred J/kg at most is anticipated), a strong kinematic environment -- including veering/increasing flow with height -- would support organized/rotating updrafts. However, given the persistent capping and very weak instability anticipated in areas where the cap can weaken, suggests only a very limited potential for a strong gust or two, or a brief/weak tornado. ..Goss.. 01/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains valid with only minimal expansion of the Elevated area westward into portions of eastern NM. Gusty winds and dry surface conditions along with above-normal temperatures will support a risk for elevated fire-weather conditions. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS through the day today/Tuesday. Associated lee cyclogenesis will produce dry downslope winds this afternoon across the southern high Plains, where latest guidance indicates some overlap of 15-20% RH and 20-25 mph gusts. ERCs in the region are near expected values for early-mid January, though several days of days of warm, dry conditions have resulted in some drying of the 10-hr fuels. Expect elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon across far eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more