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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL...SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the outlook with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity/intensity may increase over the next few hours as convection moves toward northern FL/southeast GA. Stronger heating has resulted in somewhat better destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates across this area. Stronger convection will continue to pose a threat for locally damaging gusts, while moderate speed shear contributes to somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs, supporting rotation and possibly a tornado. The severe threat is expected to diminish this evening. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. Read more

MD 0086 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST OHIO INTO FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Areas affected...northeast Ohio into far northwest Pennsylvania and extreme southwest New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 221803Z - 222000Z SUMMARY...A couple hours of heavy snow may accompany the primary band of precipitation exiting the OH Valley. A couple instances of 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates are possible. DISCUSSION...A snow band with a history of producing brief bouts of heavier snowfall rates continues to move northeast across OH in tandem with deeper moisture and the approach of a mid-level trough. Warm-air/moisture advection continues across the eastern OH Valley toward the Appalachians, with tropospheric profiles remaining below freezing from central/northeast OH into far northwest PA and extreme southwest NY. Here, continued moistening of the dendritic growth zone and 700 mb frontogenesis will promote enough lift for moderate to occasional heavy snow, as already indicated by ASOS stations at the Erie and Akron-Fulton International Airports. As such, 1+ inch/hr rates are still possible into early afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41148207 41588147 42018041 42477936 42467897 42127873 41647931 41238001 40918087 40768148 40768180 40848206 41148207 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern is expected on Monday as a series of troughs develop eastward across the CONUS. The first trough, located over the Midwest and Southeast will shift east/northeast, moving offshore the Atlantic coast Monday night. A cold front associated with this system will mainly be offshore the Atlantic coast Monday morning, with the southern extent of the boundary arcing across central FL. A few lightning flashes will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula as the front shifts south through the afternoon. However, weak instability/poor lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will preclude severe potential. The second trough/upper low, located over the Southwest and northwest Mexico, will pivot east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Increasing midlevel moisture on strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates, will support isolated elevated thunderstorms across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM into the southern High Plains and west-central TX Monday evening into early Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern is expected on Monday as a series of troughs develop eastward across the CONUS. The first trough, located over the Midwest and Southeast will shift east/northeast, moving offshore the Atlantic coast Monday night. A cold front associated with this system will mainly be offshore the Atlantic coast Monday morning, with the southern extent of the boundary arcing across central FL. A few lightning flashes will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula as the front shifts south through the afternoon. However, weak instability/poor lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will preclude severe potential. The second trough/upper low, located over the Southwest and northwest Mexico, will pivot east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Increasing midlevel moisture on strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates, will support isolated elevated thunderstorms across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM into the southern High Plains and west-central TX Monday evening into early Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern is expected on Monday as a series of troughs develop eastward across the CONUS. The first trough, located over the Midwest and Southeast will shift east/northeast, moving offshore the Atlantic coast Monday night. A cold front associated with this system will mainly be offshore the Atlantic coast Monday morning, with the southern extent of the boundary arcing across central FL. A few lightning flashes will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula as the front shifts south through the afternoon. However, weak instability/poor lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will preclude severe potential. The second trough/upper low, located over the Southwest and northwest Mexico, will pivot east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Increasing midlevel moisture on strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting in a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates, will support isolated elevated thunderstorms across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM into the southern High Plains and west-central TX Monday evening into early Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain low for today across the country. Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show a weak cold front moving off the TX coast into the northern Gulf. Surface pressure rises are noted across central TX behind this front, and further building of an extensive surface high is expected across the Plains over the next 24 hours as upper ridging shifts east. This will result in meager pressure-gradient winds across central to southern TX where fuels are currently the driest. Ensemble guidance supports this assessment with low probabilities for winds exceeding 20 mph across the region, and, consequently, low fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain low for today across the country. Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show a weak cold front moving off the TX coast into the northern Gulf. Surface pressure rises are noted across central TX behind this front, and further building of an extensive surface high is expected across the Plains over the next 24 hours as upper ridging shifts east. This will result in meager pressure-gradient winds across central to southern TX where fuels are currently the driest. Ensemble guidance supports this assessment with low probabilities for winds exceeding 20 mph across the region, and, consequently, low fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain low for today across the country. Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show a weak cold front moving off the TX coast into the northern Gulf. Surface pressure rises are noted across central TX behind this front, and further building of an extensive surface high is expected across the Plains over the next 24 hours as upper ridging shifts east. This will result in meager pressure-gradient winds across central to southern TX where fuels are currently the driest. Ensemble guidance supports this assessment with low probabilities for winds exceeding 20 mph across the region, and, consequently, low fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a corridor from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. An isolated tornado or damaging gust is possible. ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb surface low over the FL Panhandle with continue to drift to the northeast as a mid-level longwave trough continues to approach the Gulf Coast states from the west. Modest northeastward advection of low-level moisture will promote marginal buoyancy across the southeast into the Carolinas, that in tandem with deep-layer ascent will support at least scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Northern Florida into southern South Carolina.. Heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are ongoing within a confluence band across portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and southern SC. This confluence band will drift slowly eastward through the afternoon in tandem with the surface low. As warm-air/moisture advection continues along and ahead of the confluence band, and as a cold front approaches from the west, both increasing buoyancy and deep-layer ascent may support a brief uptick in convective intensity later today. From northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC, surface temperatures rising into the upper 60s F (with at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints), overspread by 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles should be largely unidirectional, strong speed shear will contribute to widespread 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, with regional VADs and point-forecast soundings also indicating modest low-level hodograph curvature (and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). As such, any storms that manage to organize and intensify later this afternoon could acquire some low-level rotation, with an isolated tornado or damaging gust possible before the confluence band moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHORELINE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible overnight along the central Gulf Coast region. A damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Day 1 Outlook. Cool surface temperatures, with dewpoints in the mid 30s-40s F reside along the Gulf Coast, with richer low-level moisture still displaced well to the south over water. Strong warm-air advection throughout the night will gradually moisten and destabilize the boundary layer along the immediate shoreline, with surface-based (albeit scant) instability potentially reaching the shore between 09-12Z Sunday morning. Should surface-based instability be realized over land, a damaging gust or tornado may accompany one of the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/ ...Gulf Coast... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over central KS, with fast zonal flow across much of the southern tier of states. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone lies offshore of the Gulf Coast states from south of Houston to near Tampa. This boundary is forecast to lift slowly northward today and tonight, approaching the central Gulf coastline after midnight. Most models show scattered showers and thunderstorms in vicinity of the warm front, which may move ashore late tonight. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep layer vertical shear for rotating updrafts and the possibility of a few strong wind gusts or a tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 21 19:42:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 21 19:42:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited for Sunday across much of the country. The upper wave and attendant surface low/cold front over the southern High Plains will continue to migrate east towards the Southeast/East Coast by Sunday afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the central/southern Plains in its wake, resulting in weak pressure-gradient winds across much of south-central TX where fuels are driest. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will foster weak lee troughing across eastern NM by late afternoon, which may support localized elevated conditions along the northern periphery of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as southerly low-level flow increases. However, ensemble guidance currently depicts low probabilities for widespread/sustained elevated conditions - likely due to spread in the strength and placement of the developing lee cyclone during the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina Sunday. A couple of tornadoes or damaging wind gusts are the main severe threats. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will deepen while traversing the eastern CONUS tomorrow/Sunday as a second upper trough amplifies across the western U.S. Surface low development is expected along the East Coast ahead of the eastern upper trough, encouraging modest northward advection of low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which is poised to overspread portions of northern Florida to the Carolina Coastline. Weak buoyancy associated with this low-level moisture, in tandem with deep-layer ascent driven by the approaching upper trough, will encourage widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of the southeast U.S., with isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development possible. ...Portions of the Southeast... The aforementioned surface low should drift northeast toward the Carolinas through the first half of the period, resulting in southwesterly low-level flow across parts of northern FL into southern GA and perhaps the coastline of the Carolinas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should already be underway across GA into northern FL in the 12-16Z time frame. Southwesterly mid-level flow from the positively-tilted upper trough overspreading low-level southwesterly winds will support near-unidirectional vertical wind profiles, but with plenty of speed-shear (with greater than 50 kts of effective bulk shear likely). Given only modest low-level curvature noted in point-forecast soundings, short linear segments and a few embedded transient supercells are the most likely modes of deep-moist convection from morning into the afternoon. Furthermore, modest mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints should support thin MLCAPE values below 1000 J/kg across southern GA and points south. During the afternoon, the strongest 925-850 mb flow should be shifting into the Carolinas, away from the stronger buoyancy. Furthermore, the severe threat may be tempered by persistent, widespread convection across the eastern Gulf Coastal region from late Day 1 into the morning Day 2. As such, a brief window of opportunity may exist for a few of the stronger, more organized storms to produce a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across northern FL into southern GA and southern SC, where a relatively favorable buoyancy/low-level shear overlap may materialize during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed this morning. Morning satellite shows clear skies across the current Elevated delineation behind a surface cold front that is now located across east-central Texas. Post-frontal northwesterly flow has increased across the Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to increase across southwestern and south-central Texas by the afternoon as the surface low deepens and tracks southeast. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected this afternoon as winds increase and relative humidity drops to near 10-15 percent amid dry and receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely this afternoon across portions of southwest and south-central Texas. Early-morning surface observations show a weak Pacific front migrating east across the southern High Plains. Dry air (denoted by dewpoints in the low teens and single digits) is observed behind this front and will overspread southwest TX through the day. Gradient winds near 15 mph appear likely per latest ensemble guidance, but may frequently gust into the 20-25 mph range, given deep boundary-layer mixing under mostly clear skies. Diurnal insolation coupled with downslope trajectories emanating off the southern Rockies will favor RH reductions into the low to mid teens. The latest ERC analyses indicate that fuels continue to cure after several days of dry conditions, with ERC values near the 70-80th percentile. Consequently, the probability for elevated fire weather conditions is reasonably high. A combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible overnight along the central Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over central KS, with fast zonal flow across much of the southern tier of states. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone lies offshore of the Gulf Coast states from south of Houston to near Tampa. This boundary is forecast to lift slowly northward today and tonight, approaching the central Gulf coastline after midnight. Most models show scattered showers and thunderstorms in vicinity of the warm front, which may move ashore late tonight. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep layer vertical shear for rotating updrafts and the possibility of a few strong wind gusts or a tornado. ..Hart/Leitman.. 01/21/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. With little threat of thunderstorms today, no changes were made to the existing outlook. ..Jewell.. 01/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies as a broader but lower amplitude upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will promote mass subsidence and low-level stability across much of the northern and central CONUS, limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. A few lightning flashes may occur this afternoon into early evening across the southern Rockies as cooler temperatures and associated steeper mid-level lapse rates accompanying the mid-level trough overspread the region. Likewise, a few thunderstorms may also develop along the TX/LA Coastline into far southwestern MS later tonight within a warm-air advection regime in response to the approaching Southern Rockies mid-level trough. Read more