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MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Areas affected...Northern FL peninsula and far southeastern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101922Z - 102045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of strong storms has moved onshore to the northern Florida peninsula, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across northern Florida and far southeastern Georgia. While a few damaging gusts are possible, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery indicate that a line of stronger storms has moved onshore, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across far southeast Georgia and north Florida. These cells are in an environment characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (30-35 kts of effective bulk shear), per mesoanalysis and RAP profiles. The low-level wind shear is relatively poor, with less than 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As the afternoon progresses, expect some clustering and upscale growth before storms move offshore. Given the poor low-level shear and some modestly dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, these clusters may produce a few damaging gusts. Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Supinie/Thompson.. 02/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29628146 29398209 29308282 29468335 29868368 30248346 30638286 30898231 31038208 31128157 30998143 30708134 30108124 29628146 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida Saturday and Saturday evening. ...Florida Panhandle/Northern Florida... An upper low will deepen Saturday as it travels from the Sabine Valley to the central Gulf Coast by 00Z, reaching GA by Sunday morning. A cyclonically curved 100 kt midlevel speed max ahead of the low and strong height falls will overspread GA/FL after 00Z as 850 mb winds increase to over 40 kts. Meanwhile, a surface low will gradually deepen over the northeastern Gulf and FL Panhandle late in the day, with a stalled front over northern FL. A cold front will also push east across the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the western FL Peninsula after 00Z. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are most likely over the land portion of the warm sector, with relatively cool surface temperatures due to ongoing precipitation and clouds. The eastern FL Panhandle portion of the boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front during the day just ahead of the low, resulting in SBCAPE over 500 J/kg over coastal counties. As such, ongoing storms along the intersecting cold front may pose a tornado risk during the day as cells move onshore, especially if surface temperatures can approach 70 F. As the more unstable air continues to push north, a tornado risk may translate eastward across northern FL near and after 00Z. By 06Z, much of the large-scale lift will pivot northeast of the area where the air mass will be too stable for severe storms. ..Jewell.. 02/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Breezy west to northwest flow will develop across portions of the southern Plains on Friday afternoon as a surface anticyclone shifts eastward into the central US. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent and sustained winds around 15-20 mph will be possible within a narrow corridor over south Texas from the Edwards Plateau south to the Rio Grande, supporting an Elevated delineation. Locally critical conditions will be possible for an hour or two, mainly within the northern third of the current D1 Elevated. Given the short duration and marginal state of fuels, the Elevated delineation covers the threat appropriately. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. ...North FL/southeast GA through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday morning. Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where low-level ascent will be focused. There will be sufficient deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed until the day 2 period. Overall, the environment appears marginal for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. ...Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight... Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the northern/central CA later today into tonight. Some shallow convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning production. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 02/10/2023 Read more

Kansas cattle farmers are struggling to find feed for their livestock, with some electing to sell some animals to have fewer to feed. Feed is expensive and scarce, according to an ag expert, who said that the situation could lead to a tightened supply. A livestock auction manager in Syracuse in western Kansas stated that they anticipate a reduction in business with numbers down 10% to 15%, or about 10,000 to 15,000 fewer cattle. KSN-TV News 3 (Wichita, Kan.), Feb 9, 2023

Bobcats have been hunting and killing small dogs in backyards at Fort Irwin and at other military bases in California’s High Desert over the past four months. The base has secured a “depredation permit” to capture or kill the wild lynx. A fatal bobcat attack on Feb. 4 was the fifth known case since Oct. 5 of a bobcat or multiple bobcats attacking small, unsupervised dogs weighing less than 30 pounds. This is an “extremely rare and unusual” change in bobcat behavior, with no such attacks being reported in recent years. Fort Irwin officials theorize that the attacks may be related to drought limiting the bobcat’s natural prey, such as squirrels and kangaroo rats. Victorville Daily Press (Calif.), Feb 9, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor from western Georgia into southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle later today. Some storms may produce strong wind gusts. Little change was made to the existing outlook with a minor decrease in probabilities across northern areas of GA where instability will be less. Otherwise, storms may gradually increase after 00Z near the front, where MLCAPE will exceed 250 J/kg with modest shear/southwesterlies aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the leading edge of an amplified belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the southern Rockies. In its wake, the center of a prominent cold surface ridge will continue to build south-southeastward across the southern Rockies vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion likely reaching the lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. A preceding cold front is expected to steadily progress into and across the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a broad and relatively deep, occluding cyclone. This cyclone is accompanying a significant mid-level impulse forecast to accelerate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley, as an upstream short wave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, and fairly prominent mid-level ridging (centered near the Bahamas) is maintained near/east of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard. ...Eastern U.S.... A combination of weak/limited low-level moisture return, relatively warm mid-levels with weak lapse rates, and in some areas a residual near-surface stable layer will tend to minimize the risk for thunderstorm development in the warm sector of the surface cyclone. One area where at least some model output (perhaps most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur is a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor across the Piedmont of east central Alabama into northern Georgia. It appears that this will largely hinge on sufficient thinning and breaks of current cloud cover, but with some insolation the environment may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm development. If this occurs, downward mixing of 30-50 kt south-southwesterly to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, with better boundary-layer moisture and instability now generally offshore, weakening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across eastern Gulf coastal areas appear to be leading to diminishing convective potential inland of the coast through the remainder of the period. Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 9 19:47:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 9 19:47:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, while surface high pressure centered over the Great Basin expands eastward over the central CONUS. Along the southeastern periphery of the expansive surface anticyclone, breezy north-northwesterly surface winds will overspread the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will yield 20-25 percent minimum RH over parts of South TX and the Hill Country. This combination could support elevated conditions, especially along the Rio Grande, where temperatures should warm into the upper 50s to lower/middle 60s. Given a lack of precipitation over this area, Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible mainly from southern Georgia into northern Florida on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough over the Plains will shift east, breaking into a cut-off low over the lower MS Valley and a progressive shortwave across the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will surge south across the western Gulf of Mexico with a weak surface trough from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Carolinas during the afternoon. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of this surface trough, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms over southern AL, GA and the FL Panhandle Friday morning. Given ongoing precipitation, low-level lapse rates will be poor, and only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop from northern FL into southern GA. Modest deep-layer shear will exist beneath a southwesterly flow regime, which may aid storm longevity in some cases. Overall, the severe risk appears low, but veering winds with height within the weak forcing regime may support a brief/weak tornado or a few strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough will advance slowly eastward over the west-central CONUS, while a related cold front moves southeastward from central TX into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Behind the front, breezy/gusty north-northwesterly surface winds will overspread the central/southern Plains during the day. From southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos and South Plains, deep boundary-layer mixing amid downslope warming/drying should yield 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon. While the overlap of dry/breezy conditions over this area could favor locally elevated conditions, the wind/RH overlap appears too brief in any given area for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor across the Georgia Piedmont into southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. These may pose a risk for producing locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... On the leading edge of an amplified belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the southern Rockies. In its wake, the center of a prominent cold surface ridge will continue to build south-southeastward across the southern Rockies vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion likely reaching the lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. A preceding cold front is expected to steadily progress into and across the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a broad and relatively deep, occluding cyclone. This cyclone is accompanying a significant mid-level impulse forecast to accelerate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley, as an upstream short wave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, and fairly prominent mid-level ridging (centered near the Bahamas) is maintained near/east of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard. ...Eastern U.S.... A combination of weak/limited low-level moisture return, relatively warm mid-levels with weak lapse rates, and in some areas a residual near-surface stable layer will tend to minimize the risk for thunderstorm development in the warm sector of the surface cyclone. One area where at least some model output (perhaps most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur is a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor across the Piedmont of east central Alabama into northern Georgia. It appears that this will largely hinge on sufficient thinning and breaks of current cloud cover, but with some insolation the environment may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm development. If this occurs, downward mixing of 30-50 kt south-southwesterly to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, with better boundary-layer moisture and instability now generally offshore, weakening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across eastern Gulf coastal areas appear to be leading to diminishing convective potential inland of the coast through the remainder of the period. ..Kerr/Supinie.. 02/09/2023 Read more

A rancher in Redmond reported being short on water and having to feed hay a month or two longer because pastures were not producing as much as normal. Hay prices are higher as drought limits production. KTVZ-TV NewsChannel 21 (Redmond, Ore.), Feb 8, 2023

Oregon enacted temporary emergency closures to stop looting at Crump Lake in 2014, 2021 and again during the 2022 summer. The latest closure restricted all public access until it expired in January 2023. The Department of State Lands aims to devise permanent rules about closing the lake during low water levels, including for recreation. Klamath Falls Herald and News (Ore.), Feb 8, 2023

The Oregon Land Board was considering permanently closing public access to Crump Lake when water levels dry up because graves and cultural sites become accessible and have been looted during the recent years of drought. The lake and surrounding wetland cover an area of 15,000 acres in a sparsely populated part of Lake County that has been inhabited by indigenous people for more than 10,000 years. With parts of the lakebed dry, more relics and human remains have been exposed to looters. Oregon enacted temporary emergency closures to stop looting at Crump Lake in 2014, 2021 and again during the 2022 summer. The latest closure restricted all public access until it expired in January 2023. The Department of State Lands aims to devise permanent rules about closing the lake during low water levels, including for recreation. Klamath Falls Herald and News (Ore.), Feb 8, 2023

Some drought-affected pastures in parts of the Midwest last summer may have been grazed too short, making winter kill more likely. February is a good time to assess pasture conditions to determine whether seeding or other renovations might be needed. Thin stands might need to be over-seeded as weed pressure could be a concern this spring. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Feb 9, 2023

Regular rains since early December allowed the South Carolina Drought Response Committee to declare the entire state to be free of drought. At the Feb. 7 meeting, the committee lifted incipient drought declarations for the 17 remaining counties of Allendale, Barnwell, Beaufort, Chester, Chesterfield, Darlington, Dillon, Florence, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Lancaster, Laurens, Marlboro, Marion, Union and York. The Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Feb 8, 2023 Four to eight inches of rain prompted the S.C. Drought Response Committee to evaluate conditions and improve the drought status of 21 counties. Aiken, Anderson, Abbeville, Cherokee, Edgefield, Fairfield, Greenville, Greenwood, Kershaw, Lee, McCormick, Newberry, Oconee, Pickens, Saluda, and Spartanburg were out of drought, while Chester, Lancaster, Laurens and Union counties were downgraded from moderate drought to incipient, the first level of drought. Many creeks and tributaries were dry since some areas had not received major rainfall in quite a while. Drought mainly affected agriculture, like the pollination of the early corn, as well as grazing conditions for livestock in the Upstate. Several rivers in the Pee Dee basin, like the Waccamaw and Little Pee Dee Rivers, were at or below their 20th percentile flows, while several rivers in the Savannah Basin, such as the Salkehatchie and Coosawhatchie rivers, were below their 10th percentile flows. The Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Dec 11, 2022 The South Carolina Drought Response Committee improved the drought status of 17 counties. Chester, Union and York remain in moderate drought, while another 14 counties remained in incipient drought. Conditions will be reassessed after the passage of tropical system Nicole. Counties upgraded to incipient drought included Aiken, Allendale, Barnwell, Beaufort, Chesterfield, Darlington, Dillon, Florence, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Kershaw, Lee, Marion, and Marlboro. Laurens and Lancaster counties were improved to moderate, the second level of drought. Chester, Union and York remained in moderate drought. The 14 counties that remained in incipient drought were Abbeville, Anderson, Cherokee, Edgefield, Fairfield, Greenville, Greenwood, Laurens, McCormick, Newberry, Oconee, Pickens, Saluda, Spartanburg. All other counties are in no drought status. WACH (Columbia, S.C.), Nov 10, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 8 20:31:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST LA AND CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Northeast LA and central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082022Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped supercells have developed in northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. While not imminent, trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A few low-topped supercells with broad mid-level rotation are visible from the KDGX radar. As sampled by mesoanalysis and the KLIX 18Z sounding, these cells are in an environment with weak to moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). In the short term, expect storms to produce some hail and perhaps a damaging gust or two. At the moment, the modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat limited. However, the tornado potential will likely increase into the late afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough approaches the region and low-level/deep-layer shear gradually increase. Watch issuance will probably not be needed in the near term, but trends will be monitored for a watch later this afternoon. ..Supinie/Kerr.. 02/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30978948 30879059 31429137 31999143 32739122 33039068 32979010 32688936 32358895 31658907 30978948 Read more