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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of coastal and central California as well as southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong westerly/southwesterly flow is forecast to stretch from central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great Lakes and Northeast early Friday morning. This flow is expected to trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging builds across most of the western CONUS and a strong upper low drops southward along the CA coast. Additionally, subtropical ridging initially centered over south FL/Bahamas should gradually drift westward throughout the period. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low just off the ME coast southeastward through eastern NC across northern portions of the Southeast States into southeast TX. This boundary is expected to remain largely in place during the period while weakening. Showers with a few deeper cores are anticipated from northeast TX through the Mid-South into northern AL tomorrow morning, north of the cold front. A few lightning flashes are possible but modest lift coupled with warm temperatures aloft is expected to limit lightning production. A greater chance of thunderstorms exists across southeast GA/southern SC tomorrow afternoon along the front, which will be more progress here than areas farther west. Additional lightning flashes are expected within the persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low moving southward along the CA coast. Highest coverage is expected early in the period along the coast, but an additional increase in lightning is possible during the early afternoon across southern CA as the frontal band moves through. ..Mosier.. 02/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians... Weak height rises are expected regionally through tonight. Weak but persistent warm/moist advection may influence thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with a few thunderstorms also possible in the more immediate vicinity of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front moving into/across western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, where thermodynamic profiles are marginally supportive of lightning flashes today. While deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy would be conditionally favorable, diminishing low-level shear combined with the nebulous forcing for ascent and relatively warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Coastal Central/Southern California... Primary vort max off the Washington/Oregon coast, embedded within the deep western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to just off the northern California coast through 12Z Friday. While surface dew points will be initially low from the 30s to low 40s F, an increase into the mid 40s is possible near the coast by early Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds may be sufficient for a few weakly rotating cells and locally strong convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the period. However, organized severe storms currently appear unlikely. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/23/2023 Read more

Jacob’s Well in Hays County was closed to swimmers indefinitely, due to unsafe conditions. Drought reduced the flow of the stream, affecting water quality. Tours of the site to share history, geology and ecology of the area continued. KEYE-TV We are Austin.com (Texas), Feb 23, 2023

Ongoing drought in the Texas Panhandle was adversely affecting cattle production as rangelands were dry. Ag producers and ranchers would be wise to have a rotational grazing system and a drought management plan. The shortage of forage in the past few years has already led to the culling of non-producing cows and young females. Too many producers overgraze, and the grass cannot grow back. ABC 7 News (Amarillo, Texas), Feb 22, 2023

WW 0041 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 41 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE POF TO 20 NW SPI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179 ..SUPINIE..02/22/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-055- 065-077-079-081-087-101-115-117-119-121-127-133-135-139-145-147- 151-153-157-159-163-165-167-173-181-183-189-191-199-222140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SANGAMON SHELBY UNION VERMILION WASHINGTON WAYNE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 41 TORNADO IL KY MO 221820Z - 230000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 41 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and south-central Illinois Western Kentucky Eastern and Southeast Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken line of storms is expected to intensify and race northeastward and pose a damaging wind and tornado risk, particularly in vicinity of a warm front from near/north of the St Louis area into south-central Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0179 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 41... FOR SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO FAR WESTERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Areas affected...southeast MO into central/southern IL into far western IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 41... Valid 222027Z - 222230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible across tornado watch 41. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection has shown some better organization and modest intensification over the past 30-45 minutes, particularly as the line moves into east-central IL. Somewhat better heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F is likely responsible for convection become more surface-based compared to earlier in storm-scale evolution. A couple of measured severe gusts were noted just north of St. Louis, and damaging wind potential will continue across the remain of tornado watch 41. Some veering of low-level winds is noted in surface observations across southern IL. However, some southeasterly low-level winds are still noted closer to central IL nearer to the warm front and a weak surface low/triple point. Given the magnitude of low-level shear, a locally greater chance of a brief tornado may exist between the I-70 and I-64 corridors. Severe potential should wane with eastward extent into portions of western KY and IN and a downstream watch is not currently anticipated. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39869002 40478726 39078715 37648821 37008938 37118989 37319035 38189037 39649018 39869002 Read more

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Areas affected...Western TN and northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222023Z - 222200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across western Tennessee this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A line of convection is ongoing near the Mississippi River, as sampled by WSR-88D radar. Ahead of this line, skies have cleared, which has resulted in temperatures into the upper 70s and dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s. Regional VWPs show strong wind profiles with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts and 50-60 kts of flow at 1 km ARL. Mesoanalysis and short-term RAP profiles indicate that buoyancy is relatively meager, due to warm mid-level temperatures. The meager buoyancy will limit severe potential, with a few damaging wind gusts expected due to the stronger low-level flow. While trends will be monitored, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 02/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 34218948 34118973 34019023 34219058 34519067 34909047 35549014 36238957 36508908 36538875 36308828 35688810 35018820 34478898 34218948 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest ensemble guidance maintains high confidence in the synoptic regime outlined in the previous discussion (below), and continues to show generally low probability for widespread elevated fire weather conditions (though locally elevated conditions are possible across West TX). ..Moore.. 02/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough and strong mid-level winds will remain across the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains through the afternoon. The strong flow across the southern Rockies will again promote a lee trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Breezy conditions will be possible in the southern High Plains, but RH values will generally be in the 20-30% range outside of the Big Bend. Only locally elevated fire weather is expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible across the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Mid MS Valley... Strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push quickly eastward across far east-central/southeast MO. The line remains free of lightning, and could be slightly elevated based on recent ACARS and modified RAP soundings. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, the LSX VAD continues to sample strong winds, including over 50 kt near 1 km AGL. These robust kinematics could still support occasionally strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado throughout the afternoon. ...Mid-South... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts will persist as the low-topped line moving across eastern AR into the Mid-South. ..Mosier.. 02/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023/ ...Ozarks/Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley... A compact shortwave trough and related speed max centered over eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas will continue to quickly race northeastward through tonight. Related wind fields will remain very strong, although the aforementioned system will gradually minor by late today while mid-level temperatures warm to its south. Initially, to the north of a warm front, ongoing elevated storms across east-central Illinois/west-central Indiana could pose an isolated/marginal severe hail risk through early afternoon. Farther southwest, within the warm sector, a very low-topped semi-organized semi-broken/wavy convective line extends from south-central/southwest Missouri south-southwestward into western Arkansas and the ArkLaTex vicinity, with little if any lightning flashes as of late morning. Line-preceding cloud breaks are noted across central/eastern Arkansas into far southeast Missouri, generally coincident with surface temperatures that have already reached 70F and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F. Given this scenario, a modest diurnal heating-related uptick in updraft/downdraft intensity is plausible, although the weak overall buoyancy should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, some potential for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes will exist especially across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into southern/south-central Illinois. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 175. Farther southeast, a somewhat separate pre-frontal regime, for a least a low/conditional-type surface-based risk, will exist in closer proximity to the Mississippi River through late afternoon and possibly early evening. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible from southwest Oregon across the California Coast and into northwest Arizona throughout the period. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast later Thursday evening. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend across the CONUS, from southern CA northeastward through the central Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes/Northeast, early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within this southwesterly flow is forecast to move from the mid MO Valley quickly northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes throughout the day. An associated surface low will take a similar path, moving from central IL northeastward through the Northeast as an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward. By 12Z Friday, this low will likely be centered off the ME coast, with the cold front extending back southwestward from this low through NC, central portions of the Southeast states, and into southeast TX. Farther west, an upper low will continue southward along the West Coast, from just off the Pacific Northwest coast early Thursday to off the northern CA Coast by early Friday. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to proceed this low, moving from southern CA to the Four Corners. ...Northeast... Shallow convection is possible from northern PA through central NY/Hudson Valley and into southern New England Thursday evening amid strengthening warm-air advection and modest ascent attendant to the approaching surface low. A warm front will likely remain in place across southern NY into southern New England, with the surface low moving along this front. Consequently, most of this convection will be elevated. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures will keep an updrafts shallow, likely limiting lightning production. Even so, given the strong low to mid-level flow, a few stronger gusts are possible with this convection. ...Southeast... Frontal progression will likely slow Thursday evening at it reaches northern MS/AL, in response to gradually strengthening low-level southerly flow. Resulting increasing in warm-air advection may trigger a few thunderstorms within the modestly moist air mass in place from the Mid-South into northern MS/AL. ...West Coast into Northwest AZ... Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low will contribute to isolated thunderstorms throughout the period from coastal OR along the CA coast into southern CA. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the lead shortwave trough across northwestern AZ vicinity Thursday evening. ..Mosier.. 02/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible from the Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the afternoon. ...Ozarks/Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley... A compact shortwave trough and related speed max centered over eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas will continue to quickly race northeastward through tonight. Related wind fields will remain very strong, although the aforementioned system will gradually minor by late today while mid-level temperatures warm to its south. Initially, to the north of a warm front, ongoing elevated storms across east-central Illinois/west-central Indiana could pose an isolated/marginal severe hail risk through early afternoon. Farther southwest, within the warm sector, a very low-topped semi-organized semi-broken/wavy convective line extends from south-central/southwest Missouri south-southwestward into western Arkansas and the ArkLaTex vicinity, with little if any lightning flashes as of late morning. Line-preceding cloud breaks are noted across central/eastern Arkansas into far southeast Missouri, generally coincident with surface temperatures that have already reached 70F and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F. Given this scenario, a modest diurnal heating-related uptick in updraft/downdraft intensity is plausible, although the weak overall buoyancy should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, some potential for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes will exist especially across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into southern/south-central Illinois. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 175. Farther southeast, a somewhat separate pre-frontal regime, for a least a low/conditional-type surface-based risk, will exist in closer proximity to the Mississippi River through late afternoon and possibly early evening. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 02/22/2023 Read more

Deschutes County commissioners approved a local declaration of emergency and drought emergency. Local irrigation districts can expect less water similar to 2022. Wickiup Reservoir was about half of its capacity, will likely only fill to about 130,000 acre-feet and is expected to peak around April 1 at near-record low levels. KTVZ-TV NewsChannel 21 (Redmond, Ore.), Feb 22, 2023 Deschutes County commissioners will consider asking for a state drought declaration. If the Board were to approve the request, it would be the county’s fourth year under the designation. KBND-AM 1110 (Bend, Ore.), Feb 22, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 21 20:16:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 21 20:16:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Southern Plains... Broad elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible Wednesday across portions of the Southern Plains and west Texas. An early morning round of precipitation is likely over portions of western OK and North Texas which will likely temper already marginal fuels. The Elevated area has been adjusted westward. Farther south and west, low-level winds are likely to remain strong after the passage of a dryline/Pacific front. The greatest confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions remains across portions of West Texas, the Big Bend and southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Though fuels here are also only marginally receptive to large fire spread lending low confidence. Thus, a Critical area will not be added to the outlook area given concerns about afternoon RH and fuels. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions remain possible given very strong surface winds gusting over 35 mph. Please see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will be exiting the southern High Plains while another larger-scale trough moves into Great Basin and Southwest on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will overspread the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late afternoon. At the surface, an initial cold front will depart the region early in the day. With deepening of the trough to the west, another surface low will develop within the combined Panhandles by late afternoon. A secondary Pacific cold front is expected to move into the southern High Plains as that occurs. ...Southern Plains... Another day of broad elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected. While the upper and lower level wind fields will be favorable for critical fire weather, the low-level thermal fields do not appear to be well-aligned with the winds. The axis of warmer temperatures will be displaced to the east of the strongest winds. Furthermore, the arrival of the Pacific front may also limit the degree to which RH will fall in the afternoon. Models, including the typically aggressively dry HRRR/RAP, are fairly adamant that RH of around 25% will be common in the South Plains into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma with local values near 20% possible. Farther south into the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend, RH could fall near or below 15%. However, fuels are less receptive, some precipitation is possible Tuesday night, and winds may only exceed 20 mph locally. The area with the most potential for larger fires will be from the northern South Plains into the Panhandles and perhaps western Oklahoma. Winds of 20-35 mph are possible in these areas and fuels will be drier than farther south. Should confidence in RH being lower or fuels being drier increase, critical highlights may be needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through late afternoon. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible after 2 AM CST across a portion of western north Texas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. in advance of a cold front and in association with a mid-level shortwave trough. For additional details on short-term trends please refer to MCD 171 issued at 1901z. Otherwise, an eastward adjustment to the western edge of the 10 percent thunderstorm line was made based on current observations/trends. The previous outlook reasoning and risk area remains on track regarding development of thunderstorms late tonight over the southern Plains and the associated severe potential. ..Bunting.. 02/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023/ ...Mid-Atlantic States... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes will continue east-northeastward toward New England tonight. Boundary layer moisture will remain limited within the post-coastal frontal environment, but cloud breaks/moderate heating and 40s F surface dewpoints will lead to weak destabilization early this afternoon. This could allow for the development of some low-topped thunderstorms (less than 25k ft) across eastern Pennsylvania to New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity. A few storms could produce small hail this afternoon along with strong/convectively enhanced wind gusts, particularly given the strength of the background west-southwesterly low/mid-tropospheric winds. ...Southern Great Plains... Influenced by a southern-stream low-latitude trough that will reach eastern New Mexico/far west Texas tonight, late-day lee cyclogenesis and a strengthening of southerly low-level winds will influence additional moistening across the region. Initially modest moisture and residual capping will likely preclude thunderstorm development until later tonight. A narrow corridor of meager boundary-layer destabilization with MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg is anticipated to evolve late tonight and early Wednesday ahead of a sharpening cold front ejecting eastward from the High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent downstream of an elongated shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will support increasing convective development, especially in the 09-12Z time frame. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind may occur across southwest/central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ...East-central Illinois to southwest Ohio... Elevated convection is expected to develop late tonight/early Wednesday amid strengthening lower-level warm theta-e advection. Most of this activity should occur within scant elevated buoyancy, but strong speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer may support small hail in the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely. ...Synopsis... Within a large-scale mid/upper-level trough, a pronounced shortwave trough will lift rapidly northeast from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes. Intense low/mid-level wind fields will accompany this shortwave trough as it accelerates northeast and generally weakens while moving into a more confluent mid-level flow regime. Farther west, a strong upper-level speed max will drop south along the west coast and contribute to the development of a closed upper low near the CA coast. Surface low pressure will develop along a front over eastern KS and move towards northern IL late Wednesday. ...OK northeast into MO/IL/IN and northwest AR... Strong/severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across central/eastern OK at 12z Wednesday in the vicinity of the dryline/cold front. The presence of surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s will contribute to modest instability ranging from 250 to 750 J/kg across the warm sector during the day, and storms are expected to move rapidly northeast during the morning and afternoon. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields (50-65 kts) will translate northeast with the shortwave trough and provide a favorable environment for strong/severe wind gusts with the stronger convective elements. Although large-scale ascent will tend to weaken with time as the trough moves into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Great Lakes, at least some severe risk may persist as far east as central IL and western IN. Low severe wind probabilities have been extended east accordingly. Although the predominant linear mode will result in damaging winds as the main severe risk, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given favorable low-level shear and at least some potential for transient supercell structures and QLCS circulations. ..Bunting.. 02/21/2023 Read more