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WW 61 TORNADO AL GA NC TN 031635Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Extreme southwest North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving QLCS will spread east-northeast from middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville TN to 25 miles south southwest of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RMG TO 25 E TYS TO 25 SE JKL. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-013-059-067-085-089-097-105-117-119-121-135-137-139-147- 157-187-195-219-221-241-247-257-281-291-297-311-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW CLARKE COBB DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HART JACKSON LUMPKIN MADISON OCONEE OGLETHORPE RABUN ROCKDALE STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALTON WHITE NCC011-021-023-027-043-045-075-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149- 161-173-175-199-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CLAY CLEVELAND Read more

WW 63 TORNADO GA NC SC TN VA 031940Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Georgia Western North Carolina Western South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Far southwest Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A long-lived QLCS should continue to progress rapidly east across the southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Bristol TN to 30 miles southwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BHM TO 55 ENE RMG TO 40 S TYS TO 45 ESE LOZ. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC027-111-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY RANDOLPH GAC015-045-057-143-149-223-227-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHEROKEE HARALSON HEARD PAULDING PICKENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 62 TORNADO IL IN KY 031710Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon from 1210 PM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells embedded within broken line segments will sweep east-northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and Kentucky through this afternoon. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Louisville KY to 65 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24055. ...Grams Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 64 TORNADO IN KY OH VA WV 032020Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Indiana Eastern Kentucky Southern Ohio Far southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Conditional tornado and damaging wind potential will exist for a few more hours with low-topped convection spreading east across the Ohio Valley and Cumberland Plateau. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Cincinnati OH to 55 miles southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...WW 63... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Grams Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and scattered swaths of severe damaging winds are probable into this evening from Ohio Valley towards the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... ...OH Valley... An intense mid-level cyclone continues to move northeastward through the Lower OH Valley. Recent surface analysis placed the associated surface low near EVV, and sampled substantial pressure falls (greater than 8 mb over the last 2 hours) downstream across southern Indiana. Surface analysis also revealed a very sharp warm front extending eastward from the surface low to about 20 miles north of LEX (in northern KY), and then more southeastward to about 20 miles north of JKL. Given the strong mass response, some modest northward progression of this front is still possible, despite widespread cloud cover across the OH Valley. Strong convective line currently ongoing near the surface low will likely persist for at least the next few hours before the limited buoyancy associated with the narrowing lead to weakening. However, the surface low will continue to occlude, limiting downstream moisture advection and likely keeping buoyancy very limited across portions of eastern KY, southern OH, and western WV ahead of the approaching dry slot. As such, the severe threat has decreased enough to remove Enhanced probabilities. ...Eastern TN/Northern GA/East-Central AL... As addressed in recently issued MCD #247, a fast-moving line of storms will continue eastward in eastern TN, east-central AL, and northern GA. Buoyancy with remain rather limited, due to displacement from the cyclone. However, ascent along the front will continue to promote thunderstorms amid the warm and moist air mass over the region. Strong wind fields will continue to support the threat for damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...TN to OH Valleys and the central/southern Appalachians... Two primary areas of convective activity are ongoing from MS/AL/TN border area northwest to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Leading pre-frontal squall, low-topped near the central MS/AL border with progressively deeper tops northward, will likely persist east-northeast this afternoon and reach the southern Appalachians by early evening. With broken cloudiness across AL and richer boundary-layer moisture, sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding, advecting north from the central Gulf Coast, this QLCS should ingest the northern gradient of peak surface-based buoyancy. This should result in intensification of the squall line with embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Farther north, broken convective bands are evident along the northern periphery of the warm sector near the MS/OH Rivers confluence, close to the deep surface cyclone. A robust surface pressure rise-fall couplet and the extreme low to deep-layer shear should compensate for the meager surface-based buoyancy and likely yield a mix of low-topped supercells and quasi-linear bowing segments, as convection rapidly spreads east-northeast. Tornadoes should be realized in sustained supercells and line-embedded mesovortices, a few of which could be significant. Given the supercell wind profiles and morning CAMs suggesting more broken convection, damaging winds will probably consist of scattered swaths of severe gusts from 60-80 mph. Severe potential today will be limited on the southern part by weakening DCVA and frontal convergence with southward extent, on the northern end by northward loss of boundary-layer destabilization away from the warm-frontal zone, and to the east by loss of both daytime heating and overall lift. As such, the unconditional probability gradient is kept rather broad on both sides, though the actual southern/northern/eastern cutoffs of severe could be abrupt. Read more

MD 0248 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62... FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...northern Kentucky...far southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 031940Z - 032245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind or brief tornado potential may materialize through 00Z as the low travels northeastward toward southwest Ohio. DISCUSSION...A small arcing line of storms persists ahead of the surface low, extending from southern Indiana toward the Louisville KY area. This activity will continue to pose a damaging wind threat, and a brief tornado remains possible as well as the line intersects the warm front with enhanced shear and lift. A leading area of rain and thunderstorms has limited destabilization ahead of the cold pocket aloft, and a dry slot is further eroding the moist layer from the southwest. As such, the area of severe potential appears to be dwindling over time. However, the low remains very strong, and cooling aloft will still overspread the warm front as it lifts across northern Kentucky and perhaps into far southwest Ohio after 21Z. As such, a new watch will need to be considered just north of the existing watch. ..Jewell/Grams.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 37958710 38348626 39058512 39558465 39618419 39328400 38758389 38238420 37928459 37528546 37408618 37458668 37958710 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, minimal fire-weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal airmass over the western and central US Saturday. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Generally mild conditions are anticipated across the CONUS on Saturday in the wake of a powerful surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Some locally drier and windy conditions may develop in portions of NM, but relatively low uncertainty and high fuel moisture content exist. As a result, no elevated fire weather conditions are currently anticipated in the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BHM TO 30 ENE HSV TO 35 E BNA TO 25 N BNA TO 15 ENE HOP TO 35 W EVV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245 ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC149-177-219-031940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCLEAN MUHLENBERG TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low amplitude shortwave trough is forecast through the Northeast on Saturday. An attendant surface low will likely begin the period centered off the southern New England coast, before then moving northeastward into more of the northern Atlantic. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low along the Eastern Seaboard and through northern FL early Saturday morning. This cold front is expected to make slow southward progress throughout the day across the FL Peninsula, with isolated showers and thunderstorm possible along and just north of the front as it does. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the central and eastern CONUS. Farther west, a shortwave trough moving through the base of an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move through southwest OR/northern CA and into the Great Basin Saturday. Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated lightning flashes over the region, both within the frontal band expected to move through Saturday morning and within the more cellular convection in its wake. ..Mosier.. 03/03/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The overall forecast remains unchanged and on track. Deep mixing within a relatively dry and breezy airmass across central and eastern FL should support a few hours of elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions within very dry fuels. Farther west across southwestern and Deep South TX, pockets of elevated fire-weather concerns should develop on the post frontal arimass this afternoon. Fire concerns will diminish quickly after dark as cooler conditions and higher humidity develop. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... A powerful upper-level shortwave and attendant deepening surface cyclone will yield generally windy and mild conditions across much of the Central U.S. on Friday. A strong, north-south cold front in the lower Delta around 12z is expected to surge eastward into the Carolinas, GA, and FL by nightfall. Windy and generally moist conditions will reside ahead of the front, except over portions of the FL peninsula where drier conditions are expected. Locally drier and warmer post-frontal conditions are also anticipated in portions of west and south TX. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in these areas throughout the afternoon on Friday. ...Portions of west TX... Gradually backing flow will yield westerly, downsloping trajectories by the afternoon on Friday in the Big Bend region and northern vicinity. Minimum relative humidities around 15 percent and sustained surface winds around 15 mph are anticipated throughout the afternoon, likely peaking around 21z. These conditions, collocated with ERCs generally in the 70-80th percentiles, will support elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon. ...Brush Country and the Rio Grande Valley... Stronger, northwesterly flow is anticipated in this region on Friday, especially earlier in the day (e.g., late morning and early afternoon). Anticipated minimum relative humidities around 20 percent should overlap with stronger winds and pose an elevated fire weather threat in the early afternoon. Fuels are also particularly dry in this region (ERCs in the 90+ percentile), which would support large fire spread. ...Central FL... Breezy conditions are expected in central FL ahead of the cold front, likely reaching 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Local relative-humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent are possible in regions that have experienced minimal rainfall in the last few weeks. These meteorological conditions and supportive fuels warrant an Elevated area in central FL on Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0055 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0229 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 022038Z - 022315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage near a warm front over north Texas, with additional storms moving in from the west along the cold front. Tornadoes, some strong, damaging wind and hail will all be possible. DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize across north TX where warm front exists. Given the uncapped air mass and multiple boundaries, storm coverage will likely increase over the next several hours. Locally backed flow along the warm front as well as increasing low-level winds this evening with the approaching upper trough may yield several tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 30999784 31919799 32769787 33139744 33739674 34179656 34829623 35289566 35349513 35149451 34509417 33299402 32579414 31559548 31039594 30689708 30999784 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 ..THORNTON..03/02/23 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353-399- 411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 54 SEVERE TSTM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Edwards Plateau and Big Country of Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and line segments will form along a sharpening dryline in west central Texas, and the storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph can be expected with the most intense storms. An isolated tornado may also occur along a stalled front in the area near and just northeast of Abilene. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Abilene TX to 10 miles south southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/02/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-049-067-085-099-123-137-022140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON LOVE MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-097-133-237-337-363-429-485-497-503-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WICHITA WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 53 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 021845Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western north Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms will evolve into more surface-based storms along a front from northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma this afternoon. The storm environment will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing swaths of very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and occasional damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southeast of Ardmore OK to 90 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this afternoon through tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South... A strong shortwave trough continues to progress into the southern High Plains, with ascent attendant to this wave already contributing to thunderstorm development over southwest TX. This area was addressed in recently issued MCD #228, which mentioned that damaging hail and wind will be possible with these. A tornado could occur along the stationary front, which extents east-northeastward from a low centered east of BGS. Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. Upscale growth into an expansive convective line is still anticipated later this evening into tonight as the upper wave continues eastward into the increasingly moist and buoyant air mass over north/central/east TX. Primary threat within this line is damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph. Large hail also remains possible, particularly with early afternoon development and as a result of updraft intensification as the line mergers with any preceding cells. Line-embedded QLCS tornadoes also remain possible. ..Mosier.. 03/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will move over southwest TX later this afternoon, and then eject northeastward toward AR by the end of the period. Substantial surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and 110+ kt midlevel jet streak, from north central TX later this afternoon to western/northern AR overnight. A reservoir of 65-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present from central/east TX into LA/MS as of late morning, and continued northward advection of moisture is expected through this afternoon into tonight. The north edge of the surface warm sector is not expected to move much to the north through this evening, with a front remaining quasi-stationary from north TX to southern AR. A remnant outflow boundary will tend to slowly become more diffuse through this afternoon across the DFW area. The approach of the midlevel trough, mass response to cyclogenesis, and surface heating in cloud breaks all suggest that thunderstorm development is probable by early-mid afternoon across central TX and western north TX, with storms spreading east-northeastward into the DFW area, northeast TX and extreme southeast OK through late evening. The initial storms will likely be clusters of supercells capable of producing very large hail and swaths of damaging winds as storms grow upscale into a line along the surging cold front from central into northeast TX this evening (some of which could produce significant gusts. Forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, though the most favorable wind profiles will correspond to tonight when storm mode will likely be more linear. The compact nature of the jet structure suggests that the stronger/deeper forcing for ascent will travel along the path of cyclogenesis, from far northeast TX/southeast OK into AR tonight. South of this area, ascent will be weaker and relatively warm temperature profiles aloft suggest that storm development is more questionable with southward and eastward extent across LA/MS overnight. Read more