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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX... No changes are needed to the current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will extend across the southwestern CONUS through the day on Saturday, and this should lead to a strong surface low over northwest Oklahoma around midday. This will lead to warm, dry, breezy conditions across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Per latest model guidance, RH is expected to be near 10-15% across much of the southern High Plains with gusts to 40-50 mph. However the strongest gusts are expected to be across the Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas of New Mexico, while the lowest RH may be farther south across the Permian Basin and Texas Big Bend region. Fuels in the region are modestly dry, and given the strong winds expected, an Elevated area has been introduced in this outlook. A Critical area has also been added across the Permian basin where the best overlap between strong winds and low RH is expected to occur, though this may be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Additionally, there is some uncertainty as to the timing of a cold front moving southward through the Texas Panhandle on Saturday afternoon, which will determine the northern extent of the Elevated risk area. ...North Carolina... Some elevated conditions may also across parts of North Carolina, with gusts to 15-20 mph and RH near 30-35% in a post-frontal regime. However, marginally dry fuels should keep any elevated fire weather risk transient and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Areas affected...portions of far western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 101843Z - 102145Z SUMMARY...Brief periods of heavy snow, including 1 inch/hour rates, are possible over the next few hours in association with a broader precipitation band. DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection is taking place ahead and to the north of a surface low, currently positioned over western Pennsylvania, which is poised to move east through the afternoon. A band of heavy snow is already underway across far western New York per latest surface observations. 850 mb frontogenesis is evident along the Lake Erie/Ontario shorelines and is serving as a source of convergence. As such, the enhanced lift of relatively rich low-level moisture into an already saturated dendritic growth zone should continue to support additional bouts of heavy snow (1 inch/hour) for at least a few more hours across western New York, as also suggested by 12Z HREF and the last few runs of the HRRR. ..Squitieri.. 03/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42517933 43167892 43427791 43497672 43107623 42787624 42497680 42277729 42167777 42207819 42517933 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms producing primarily large damaging hail will be possible Saturday evening and overnight mainly from eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Height falls will occur across the Plains in response to an upper low over the northern Plains and a low-amplitude wave nosing into the southern Plains. Substantial cooling aloft will occur over the region, including the Ozarks and Arklatex region and toward the MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will develop into western OK and move toward the Red River as a cold front moves in from the north. A dryline will push east past I-35 in OK and TX during the afternoon as a warm front moves rapidly north across LA and into AR and eastern OK by 00Z. ...Eastern OK into AR and northern MS... Most of the day will be free of thunderstorms across the area as the air mass recovers with the passage of the warm front, and heating occurs just southwest of the area. Lift will increase substantially during the evening as the cooling aloft overspreads the area. Gradual deepening of the moist boundary layer will then lead to an eruption of thunderstorms centered over AR and possibly into eastern OK initially, and these will move rapidly east/southeastward toward northern MS overnight. Forecast soundings show large values of elevated instability and steep lapse rates, in addition to effective deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kt. The increasing speed shear with height will favor fast-moving, forward-tilted supercells which may produce damaging hail, some over 2" in diameter. Given the expectation of a few long-lived storms, damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as well with the hail-laden, cold downdrafts and despite a stable surface layer. ....Northeast TX into southern OK... A conditional risk of isolated supercells will exist along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening as a heating erodes capping in a narrow zone from near or just east of I-35 from central OK into north TX. Overall, models indicate only low probabilities of thunderstorms, and this is likely due to the strongly veered 850 mb winds and subsequent drying of the low levels just above the surface. Most of the lift will be focused farther east near the warm front, but will maintain low severe probabilities for this conditional risk. ..Jewell.. 03/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Slight adjustments were made to the expand the current Elevated area further south and west into south-central New Mexico in agreement with the latest HREF probabilities of Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions. Morning surface observations indicate relative humidity values behind the dryline across eastern and central New Mexico already around 15-20 percent with winds sustained around 10-12 mph gusting up to 25 mph. Diurnal mixing will continue through the afternoon with further relative humidity reductions and gusts as high as 30-35 mph. Fuels across New Mexico are marginal, precluding the need for any critical areas within the Elevated delineation. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Central CONUS will be near the apex of a mid-level ridge, and the resulting zonal flow aloft will result in the development of a lee trough over southeastern Colorado through the day today. Though the flow aloft is not particularly strong for this time of year, this will still lead to warm, dry, breezy conditions across the southern High Plain this afternoon. Diurnal mixing west of the dryline is expected to push RH to near 10-20% and gusts to 30-35 mph across eastern New Mexico and into southeastern Colorado. Fuels in this region are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, so an elevated area is maintained. Spotty elevated conditions may also occur across central and south Florida, with RH near 35-40% and gusts to 15-20 mph. Fuels are somewhat dry, however, cross-peninsula flow (i.e., off the warm Gulf of Mexico) is expected to keep any elevated conditions localized and transient. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify across parts of southern Georgia, southeast Alabama into northern Florida this afternoon. Locally strong winds and hail will be possible with some of these storms. ...Synopsis... Late morning satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying over the upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. A surface low over the OH/PA corridor this afternoon will weaken as the primary cyclone develops east of the Mid-Atlantic coast after dark. A cold front trailing southward through the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf Coast will push through the Southeast and much of FL through Saturday morning. A cluster of elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning will continue to move east near and north of an earlier outflow boundary draped from west to east across southern GA. The airmass south of the boundary in the warm sector is destabilizing with surface dewpoints rising into the low-mid 60s across north FL and southern GA as low-level moisture advects northeast. Strong westerly mid-level flow will support some storm organization potential as 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops by early afternoon across southern GA into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL vicinity. Expecting additional storms to develop near the front as it pushes through adjacent parts of AL/GA/FL by early-mid afternoon. The lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent may limit the overall coverage/intensity of the storms this afternoon. Nonetheless, a few of the stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for large hail/damaging gusts before this activity weakens after sunset and moves east of the coast. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/10/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT PARTS OF CENTRAL TO EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible late this afternoon into tonight from portions of central/east Texas to western Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...East of the Rockies... Only minor changes have been made, to the categorical (10 percent probability) thunderstorm line, generally to account for the continuing progression of the synoptic features. For further details, please refer to the 1630Z discussion, appended below. ...Pacific Coast states... A significant mid-level trough, and embedded low, will gradually turn eastward toward northern Pacific coastal areas later today through tonight. An associated deepening, and occluding surface cyclone is forecast to remains offshore of the Washington coast, but a trailing cold front will advance inland across western into central Oregon and northern California. It appears that the mid-level cold core of the system, including 500 mb temperatures of -30 to -35 C, may contribute to post-frontal boundary-layer destabilization near Oregon coastal areas by 09-12Z. Coupled with an increasing onshore low-level flow component, this is expected to support scattered deepening convection, some of which may become capable of producing lightning. Farther south, a plume of lower/mid tropospheric moisture return, emanating from the southern mid- and subtropical eastern Pacific, will spread inland ahead of the cold front, across the California coast and Sierra Nevada. Despite relatively warm mid-levels, forecast soundings indicate conditionally unstable profiles developing late this evening into the overnight hours, rooted mainly well above the surface, in the lower/mid troposphere. As winds at these elevations take on a strengthening westerly component, orographic forcing for ascent may contribute to convection occasional capable of producing lightning along the western slopes of the Sierra after 06Z. In lower elevations to the west, probabilities for weak thunderstorm potential are more uncertain. However, they might not be negligible across the Sacramento into San Francisco Bay areas overnight, where/when lift ahead of the inland advancing cold front may be enhanced by forcing for ascent near the southern periphery of the mid-level trough. ..Kerr.. 03/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023/ ...Central/east TX to western AL... Primary shortwave trough ejecting from the central Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes will yield a largely zonal regime across the southern states with minor mid-level perturbations embedded within the flow. A persistent baroclinic zone from TX to AL will strengthen by late afternoon as differential heating is underway with surface temperatures expected to rise into the 80s F across a large swath of the warm sector. Weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated along and south of the Edwards Plateau in TX to the AR/LA border and west-central/southwest AL. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon from southeast OK and the Ark-La-Tex to central AL, on the cool side of the surface front. With generally weak MUCAPE, and a cool/stable boundary layer in place near and northeast of the front, storms should remain elevated with small hail as the primary threat. One exception may be along a confined portion of the front in the west-central/southwest AL vicinity, where weak low-level warm theta-e advection across this portion of the front might support a supercell or two. The spatiotemporal window for this conditional potential to be realized appears limited given the weak large-scale ascent. A swath of scattered thunderstorm development is expected this evening from the AR/LA border southwest into the Edwards Plateau of TX along and behind the surface cold front, yielding south/southeast acceleration of the front tonight. While isolated damaging winds are possible immediately along the front, the main threat should be isolated severe hail given the undercutting nature of the boundary. The greatest potential for supercells with mid-level rotation should be across the southwest portion of the outlook area in south-central TX. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer could result in large hail tonight. Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 9 19:49:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Areas affected...central to southern AL and portions of eastern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091942Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a stationary front in central AL. These storms may pose a threat for localized small to marginally severe hail, but a WW is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...A couple of sustained, deep updrafts have formed in west-central AL along a stationary front during the last 30-60 min. Visible imagery suggests that a north-south convergence band -- evidenced by more congested localized Cu -- may be associated with this convection initiation. Nearby surface stations on the warm side of the front are observing lower 70s F temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F. This would support MLCAPE values of around 500-1000 J/kg with the potential for surface-based convection. While minimal veering shear exists in the warm sector, current surface objective analysis and the KMXX VWP suggest local effective SRH values of up to 50-100 J/kg may be present. This low-level shear profile, along with larger cloud-layer shear around 60 kts, could support somewhat persistent updrafts along with a threat for marginally severe hail and wind gusts, but a WW is not expected. ..Flournoy/Grams.. 03/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31448798 32038869 32818884 33278845 33278755 32878669 32258624 31608638 31338713 31448798 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern Georgia, adjacent southeastern Alabama and northern Florida Friday, accompanied by some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that flow in the mid- and higher latitudes of the eastern Pacific through western Atlantic will remain amplified, with generally weak westerlies, as blocking highs are generally maintained near the Aleutians and across the Canadian Arctic through this period. Lower amplitude flow will prevail in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, with broad mid-level troughing across the central Pacific transitioning to broad ridging across the eastern Pacific through the southern tier of the western into central U.S., and broad troughing farther downstream into the western Atlantic. Within this regime, one vigorous shortwave impulse is forecast to progress inland across the northern U.S. Pacific coast and northern Rockies by late Friday night. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and inland advancing cold front across the interior Northwest and Rockies, and deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. It appears that a plume of higher moisture content air emanating from the subtropical Pacific, initially impinging on the Sierra Nevada, before spreading into the Great Basin, will gradually be suppressed southward, ahead of the front. East of the Rockies, a weak initial surface low is forecast to gradually migrate northeastward through the Allegheny Plateau vicinity, before much more substantive cyclogenesis takes place off the Mid Atlantic coast, in response to a significant short wave trough digging southeast of the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, low-level cooling and drying, in the wake of a trailing cold front, will overspread much of the Southeast through central Gulf coast. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies... Models indicate that the inland migrating short wave will be accompanied by a compact mid-level cold core, including 500 mb temperatures of -30 to -35C. This will contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization, which may become supportive of scattered low-topped convection capable of producing lightning near Oregon coastal areas at 12Z Friday, inland toward the Montana Rockies through the day. ...California coast through the Great Basin... Forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening, coupled with weak mid-level cooling, will be sufficient to contribute to layers of weak conditional instability. It appears that this will mostly be rooted at higher altitudes, as cloud cover and precipitation hinder surface heating and boundary-layer destabilization at lower elevations, particularly to the west of the Sierra Nevada. Aided by 40 to 70 kt westerly flow in roughly the 4,000-10,000 foot layer, strong orographic forcing for ascent may contribute to convection capable of producing lightning across the western slopes of the Sierra and Wasatch. ...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible Friday near the southeastward advancing cold front. The general tendency may be for this activity to form to the cool side/above the front. However, near peak afternoon instability, a window of opportunity may develop for sustained thunderstorm activity rooted within the boundary-layer, just ahead of the front across parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida. Forecast soundings suggest that the environment might become conducive for a couple of strong storms posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind, before activity weakens by Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 03/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated area was expanded slightly northward along the I-25 corridor in south-central CO. Here, the latest high-resolution guidance shows the potential for 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH (especially in the wind-prone/gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 03/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... At the mid-levels, zonal flow is expected across the southern High Plains through the day on Friday, which will lead to the return of lee troughing. This should result in dry, breezy conditions to the west of a dryline across the area during the afternoon. RH may be near 10-20% with gusts near 25-30 mph across eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado and the western Panhandles. Given at least marginally dry fuels in the region, this is enough to support the introduction of an Elevated risk area. Some uncertainty exists with regard to high-level cloud cover in the northern part of the Elevated area, which may limit surface heating, and therefore limit the fire weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z Gradual cloud-clearing from west to east is evident from southeastern CO into far western KS -- aided by continued downslope flow and subsidence-induced drying on the backside of a departing midlevel shortwave trough. Farther east-southeast into portions of western KS and the OK Panhandle, deeper moisture (see 12Z DDC observed sounding) and related cloud coverage limit confidence in RH reductions. Therefore, the Elevated area has been trimmed over these areas. Along the I-25 corridor in south-central CO, locally critical conditions are possible (primarily in gap-flow areas) -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) should overlap 10 percent RH. However, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights. For additional details on the Day 1 fire-weather risk, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level shortwave ridging will build over the southern High Plains through the day today, and at the surface, a wind shift will pass the region during the morning hours. By afternoon, diurnal mixing is expected to drive RH to 5-15% from eastern New Mexico northward into southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. Fuels in this region are at least marginally dry, and southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas are currently in exceptional drought. There are two areas with potential for stronger winds (gusts to 15-20 mph), one in eastern New Mexico, and another in southeastern Colorado, southwest Kansas, and into the northern Panhandles, For these reasons, the two separate Elevated risk areas are maintained. Across eastern Georgia and western South Carolina, expect some localized, transient elevated conditions with RH near 20% in the afternoon and marginally dry fuels. However, light winds preclude the introduction of any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL TO EAST TX INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from portions of central/east Texas to western Alabama. ...Central/east TX to western AL... Primary shortwave trough ejecting from the central Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes will yield a largely zonal regime across the southern states with minor mid-level perturbations embedded within the flow. A persistent baroclinic zone from TX to AL will strengthen by late afternoon as differential heating is underway with surface temperatures expected to rise into the 80s F across a large swath of the warm sector. Weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated along and south of the Edwards Plateau in TX to the AR/LA border and west-central/southwest AL. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon from southeast OK and the Ark-La-Tex to central AL, on the cool side of the surface front. With generally weak MUCAPE, and a cool/stable boundary layer in place near and northeast of the front, storms should remain elevated with small hail as the primary threat. One exception may be along a confined portion of the front in the west-central/southwest AL vicinity, where weak low-level warm theta-e advection across this portion of the front might support a supercell or two. The spatiotemporal window for this conditional potential to be realized appears limited given the weak large-scale ascent. A swath of scattered thunderstorm development is expected this evening from the AR/LA border southwest into the Edwards Plateau of TX along and behind the surface cold front, yielding south/southeast acceleration of the front tonight. While isolated damaging winds are possible immediately along the front, the main threat should be isolated severe hail given the undercutting nature of the boundary. The greatest potential for supercells with mid-level rotation should be across the southwest portion of the outlook area in south-central TX. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer could result in large hail tonight. ..Grams/Flournoy.. 03/09/2023 Read more

February runoff into the Missouri River above Sioux City, Iowa continued to be below normal at 1 million acre-feet, 86% of average. The 2023 runoff is forecast to be 21.5 MAF, 84% of the average of 25.7 MAF. Mountain snowpack that feeds the upper river basin as spring meltwater is near average and ranged from 101% of average to 104% on March 1. The amount of water stored in the river's six reservoirs was 46.0 MAF, below the flood control zone that starts at 56.1 MAF. There is enough water in the river for water supply needs, in spite of the low runoff totals and ongoing water conservation measures, per the corps. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), March 8, 2023

A burn ban took effect in Hendry County on March 7 and prohibits bonfires, campfires, burning of trash or yard waste and any other outdoor fire except for cooking using an enclosed propane or charcoal grill. WGCU 90.1 FM (Fort Myers, Fla.), March 8, 2023

Collier County officials declared a burn ban on March 3 as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index rose toward the upper end of the 0 to 800 scale, where higher numbers indicate drier conditions. Forestry professionals suggest that the fire season will be active in the region. The burn ban includes all unincorporated areas, but exempts certain commercial burning and controlled fires, per the Florida Forest Service. This ban does not affect the sale of fireworks, but does prohibit their use. WGCU 90.1 FM Fort Myers (Fort Myers, Fla.), March 8, 2023

Stage 1 of Avondale’s Drought Preparedness Plan was declared on Feb. 15 at the recommendation of the city’s Water Resources Division. Under Drought Stage 1, the city of Avondale will strive to increase water conservation in the city’s operations and provide more awareness and education to water customers. The prompt to move to State 1 of the Drought Preparedness Plan was based on the possibility of minimal water shortages or drought conditions within the next year. About a third of Avondale’s water comes from the Colorado River, which was in a Tier 2a shortage. The city anticipates additional reductions in supply from the Colorado River late in 2023 or 2024. West Valley View (Goodyear, Ariz.), March 6, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 8 21:03:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 8 21:03:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The development of a couple of strong storms posing some risk for severe hail remains possible, mainly this evening into tonight across parts of northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Downstream of a relatively low amplitude short wave trough advancing into the Great Basin, and forecast to progress across the Colorado Rockies vicinity by 12Z Thursday, warming centered around the 700 mb level is underway across the Texas South Plains into northwestern Texas. An associated increase in inhibition is expected to result in a gradual northward shift in the corridor of persistent convective development, generally across and east-northeast of the Red River vicinity through late evening. It does appear that an increase in forcing for ascent will contribute to intensifying convection and embedded thunderstorms, but it is not clear that thermodynamic profiles will support more than low potential for marginally severe hail, mainly across the Red River vicinity. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress eastward today across the western states, eventually reaching the central Rockies late tonight. Downstream of this perturbation, a broad zone of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains. A surface front extending from parts of west into central TX should move little today. A few elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well north of this front over portions of western north TX. Even though large-scale ascent remains nebulous, this activity may persist today as it spreads slowly eastward across north TX owing to weak low-level warm advection. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present along/north of the front, around 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE should generally be available to support this elevated convection. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two. Indeed, a splitting supercell has already been observed with the convection in western north TX, before both updrafts subsequently weakened. Isolated severe hail appears to be the main threat through tonight with any elevated thunderstorms that can persist. A broad area of precipitation is ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South associated with a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastern extent of the stalled surface front also extends northwest-southeast across MS. Even with robust diurnal heating expected southeast of the current showers/thunderstorms, poor lapse rates aloft and weak lift along the front should keep overall thunderstorm chances rather isolated. While a strong thunderstorm could occur this afternoon across parts of central MS, the overall severe threat still appears too conditional/isolated to add low severe probabilities for hail/wind. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows the potential for locally critical conditions along the I-25 corridor (particularly in gap flow areas) in south-central CO. Here, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) could overlap 10 percent RH during the afternoon. However, the localized nature of these conditions precludes a Critical area. Farther east, dry/breezy conditions could develop into parts of northwest KS (just outside the Elevated area), though additional precipitation over this area should generally temper the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to build across the southern High Plains through the day on Thursday, with a surface wind shift moving through during the morning hours. By afternoon, diurnal mixing may produce RH near 5-15% with gusts to 15-25 mph across eastern New Mexico and across southeastern Colorado and southwest Kansas and into the northern Panhandles. Fuels in New Mexico are marginally dry, and southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas are in exceptional drought, which supports the introduction of Elevated risk areas in these regions. The Elevated risk areas are split due to an area of weak winds in northeastern New Mexico, though these may be combined in subsequent outlooks. Localized elevated conditions may occur in the mid-Atlantic on Thursday, with RH values near 15-25% and marginally dry fuels. However, light winds under high pressure is expected to keep any elevated fire weather risk localized and transient. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more