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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from southern Arkansas into northern Alabama Thursday afternoon and evening, and perhaps portions of central Texas Thursday night. A couple of these may be accompanied by at least some severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail. ...Synopsis... Within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into the western Atlantic, models indicate that blocking will remain prominent in the higher latitudes. This likely will include one lingering mid-level high near the Aleutians and another over the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, general larger-scale mid-level troughing will persist, with a number of notable progressive short wave perturbations. This is forecast to include one trough and embedded low pivoting into the northern U.S. Pacific coast. While downstream short wave ridging builds across the eastern Great Basin into the central Great Plains by late Thursday night, a trough to the east appears likely to advance east-northeast of the lower Missouri Valley into the upper Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley vicinity. In lower latitudes, models indicate that broad mid-level ridging will persist across much of the southern tier of the U.S., although the lead short wave trough may contribute to some suppression of mid-level heights near/north of the Red River and Ark-La-Tex into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Cold/potentially cold surface ridging, still entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies early Thursday, will tend to suppress substantive surface cyclogenesis as the lead mid-level trough migrates east of the Rockies. However, an area of low pressure may begin to form late Thursday evening into early Friday, along the primary low-level baroclinic zone across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley. In its wake, the shallow leading edge of the cold surface-based air (initially extending from the Edwards Plateau of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley at 12Z Thursday) probably will shift southward toward the northwestern/north central Gulf coastal plain. ...Southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Inhibition associated with the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, and warm layers with weak lapse rates farther aloft, may continue to confine thunderstorm development to where weak destabilization (associated with moisture return) above/to the cool side of the surface front is maintained. It appears that the most substantive instability, perhaps including CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, will generally be focused in a narrow corridor near and to the immediate north of the front. Along this corridor, a combination of forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection and the gradual suppression of mid-level heights may support intensifying thunderstorm development by Thursday afternoon across parts of southeastern Arkansas into northern Mississippi. Given the stable surface-based layer, rather modest CAPE, and weak to modest low-level flow, the potential for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain. However, if convection is able to consolidate and organize in the presence of sufficiently strong cloud-bearing layer shear, a few strong surface gusts might not be out of the question before activity weakens while continuing east-southeastward through parts of northern/central Alabama Thursday evening. Otherwise, the strong deep-layer shear probably will contribute to the potential for at least marginally severe hail in the stronger and, mainly, more discrete storms. Meanwhile, across northeastern into central Texas, and southwestward toward the Edward Plateau/adjacent Rio Grande Valley vicinity, convective potential is more unclear through the period, due to stronger mid/upper inhibition and weaker (or at least more uncertain) mid/upper support. However, isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for severe hail may not be out of the question, particularly Thursday evening. ...Northern California... Forecast soundings suggest that weak conditional instability may develop by late Thursday night along the western slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada, perhaps supporting convection capable of occasionally producing lightning prior to 12Z Friday. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail may occur this afternoon through tonight across parts of west/north Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress eastward today across the western states, eventually reaching the central Rockies late tonight. Downstream of this perturbation, a broad zone of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains. A surface front extending from parts of west into central TX should move little today. A few elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well north of this front over portions of western north TX. Even though large-scale ascent remains nebulous, this activity may persist today as it spreads slowly eastward across north TX owing to weak low-level warm advection. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present along/north of the front, around 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE should generally be available to support this elevated convection. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two. Indeed, a splitting supercell has already been observed with the convection in western north TX, before both updrafts subsequently weakened. Isolated severe hail appears to be the main threat through tonight with any elevated thunderstorms that can persist. A broad area of precipitation is ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South associated with a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastern extent of the stalled surface front also extends northwest-southeast across MS. Even with robust diurnal heating expected southeast of the current showers/thunderstorms, poor lapse rates aloft and weak lift along the front should keep overall thunderstorm chances rather isolated. While a strong thunderstorm could occur this afternoon across parts of central MS, the overall severe threat still appears too conditional/isolated to add low severe probabilities for hail/wind. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/08/2023 Read more

Most counties in the Texas Panhandle remained under burn bans, amid high winds and high fire risk. This time of year is considered to be the dormant fire season, per the Texas A&M Forest Service. KAMR-TV NBC 4 Amarillo (Texas), Feb 27, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 7 21:21:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 7 21:21:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible, mainly tonight, across portions of west/north Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk extending from parts of west/north TX into southern OK. Occasional severe hail still appears possible across this area, mainly after 03Z and continuing through early Wednesday morning. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the front in north-central TX remains rather uncertain/conditional. While surface temperatures have warmed into mid/upper 70s across this area amid low/mid 60s dewpoints, a lingering inversion centered between 850-700 mb will probably continue to inhibit convective development this afternoon. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023/ ...West/north TX into southern OK... A surface front arcing from the Permian Basin through north-central TX to the Ark-La-Miss should become quasi-stationary through peak heating, and then resume gradually pushing south tonight. Along the inflection point of this boundary in north-central to northeast TX, where it intersects with an inverted surface trough extending north into eastern OK, potential will exist for a few late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms. Should this activity become sustained, it would likely develop on and towards the cool side of the front where adequate low-level convergence may overcome pronounced dryness centered on 700-600 mb. More muted mid-level lapse rates relative to west TX will likely marginalize any initial severe threat. Greater elevated convective coverage is anticipated towards late evening across west to north TX and southern OK as low-level isentropic ascent moderately strengthens on the cool side of the front, with a warm-sector EML capping areas to the south. Plentiful effective bulk shear with straight-line mid to upper hodographs will support a conditional threat for a few splitting cells. The steeper mid-level lapse rate plume and moderate MUCAPE will probably be confined to the far western portion of the risk area, emanating from the Permian Basin vicinity, with weak elevated buoyancy elsewhere. This will yield the possibility for isolated/sporadic occurrences of severe hail tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The Elevated area for D2/Wednesday has been expanded slightly northwest into portions of the Sangre de Cristo range and the San Luis Valley. Although temperatures will be relatively cool (around 50 F), downslope flow will yield dry, windy conditions and a possible elevated fire weather threat. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the East Coast across the Carolinas/GA. Dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated, but light winds should keep any fire weather threat localized. This precludes any Elevated areas at this time in this region. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Weinman.. 03/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to traverse the western CONUS during the day on Wednesday, with modest southwesterly flow aloft throughout the period. This should lead to dry, breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. Across northeast New Mexico, diurnal mixing is expected to drive RH into the 10-20% range and produce gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon. An Elevated area was added in this outlook in areas where fuels are marginally receptive to fire spread. However, some uncertainty exists in the degree of mixing, which may limit the extent and duration of elevated fire weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening from parts of west Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms posing an isolated threat for hail will probably be ongoing across parts of north TX, southern OK, and the ArkLaTex region Wednesday morning. This activity should generally remain elevated to the north of a quasi-stationary surface front as it spreads eastward through the morning hours. Most guidance suggests this convection should gradually weaken as it moves across the lower MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon, with poor lapse rates aloft likely limiting updraft strength and instability. Still, some chance for a strong storm or two may exist over parts of MS during the afternoon, as deep-layer shear should modestly support updraft organization. Have not expanded the Marginal Risk eastward to include this area at this time, as the overall severe threat appears too isolated. Additional convective development may occur late Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening along/north of the stalled front from parts of west/north TX into southern OK. This activity will be aided by modest low-level warm advection, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind the morning convection. Some steepening of mid-level lapse rates should support MUCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg. Around 40-50 kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow will foster similar values of deep-layer shear. Isolated severe hail will be possible over this region with any elevated supercells that can develop and be sustained. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2023 Read more

Forage sorghum has become an attractive option for dairies and feedlots in Texas and Oklahoma as some areas have less well water due to falling aquifer levels. Less sorghum was planted in 2022, but some market analysts expect an increase in sorghum in 2023 because it requires less water than wheat or corn. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Feb 27, 2023

Water releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah were being suspended as requested by four upper Colorado River Basin states. The water was to boost the level of Lake Powell, which in late February fell to its lowest level since the reservoir filled in the 1960s. Above-normal snowpack and precipitation in the West were also expected to help refill Lake Powell. The water releases from Flaming Gorge were originally meant to continue through April. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), March 7, 2023 Four Upper Colorado River Basin states are asking the Bureau of Reclamation to suspend water releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir to allow heavy snowpack to raise the level of the reservoir rather than continuing to send water downstream to Lake Powell. The states would like the water releases to end on March 1 rather than continue through April as planned. The Upper Basin states also want the Lower Basin states to understand that water cannot be released downstream at will. As of Feb. 28, winter precipitation was above average in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. KUNC-FM 91.5 (Greeley, Colo.), Feb 27, 2023

Soil moisture was short to adequate in most North Texas counties. Most areas received rain over the past few weeks. Temperatures were up and down. Wheat and oats were improving with the recent moisture and should make more progress in the coming weeks if temperatures stay warm. Producers were fertilizing pastures. Livestock were grazing cool-season grasses. Hay was still in high demand. Livestock conditions were good overall. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 Soil moisture was short to adequate across North Texas. Heavy rainfall left some pastures soaked and muddy. Some sunshine would help grazing conditions amid the hay shortage. Wheat conditions were below normal due to the recent winter freeze. Hay was still in high demand. Livestock conditions were good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 Soil moisture levels were short to adequate. Most areas were short on moisture, but producers in other areas were dealing with extremely wet conditions. A light freeze occurred. Some counties were struggling to recover from the hard freeze earlier this winter. Most ponds were filled by the rainfall. Wheat and oat conditions were improving. Hay was still in short supply in some areas. Cedar tree pollen was high. Livestock conditions were good. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

All areas of West Central Texas needed rain, and a quick moving storm delivered trace amounts to a few areas. Wheat and oat fields needed significant moisture. Plants, including fruit trees, were breaking dormancy due to temperatures in the high-70s and low-80s. Rangeland and pasture conditions improved slightly with some cool-season grasses being grazed by livestock and wildlife. Livestock diets continued to be supplemented, but hay supplies were getting low. Some livestock producers continued to sell cattle to reduce herd sizes. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 West Central Texas pastures were greening up and creating some grazing for livestock. High winds dried the topsoil some. Wheat and oats continued to grow and provided some grazing, while oats in some locations were not expected to recover from the extreme cold in December. Many farmers were talking about sprigging some Coastal Bermuda grass this spring if it continues to stay wet. Local cattle prices were up significantly for feeders. There were also a few more small herd liquidations as drought conditions and lack of hay force selloffs. Some field preparation for Sudan grass planting continued. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 West Central Texas pastures were still short on grazing, and producers were feeding livestock hay and supplements. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

Weather in Southwest Texas was warm, dry and windy with no rain reported. Lack of moisture was limiting winter weed and grass growth. Corn and sorghum plantings were underway. Irrigated winter wheat and oats were in fair to good shape. Rangelands continued to be dry as lambing and kidding continued. Spring shearing was underway. Livestock were receiving supplemental feed and in mostly fair condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 28, 2023 No precipitation was reported in Southwest Texas. Temperatures were warmer before a strong cold front brought cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Corn planting was expected to start soon. Farmers finished fertilizing in preparation of planting. Oats and wheat looked better following rains in the past few weeks. Pastures continued to improve, but more spring rains will be needed for recovery. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Cattle prices were steady to high. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 Moisture conditions improved, but some areas of Southwest Texas remained dry. Wheat and oats looked fair to good under irrigation, and very few winter weeds were emerging. Supplemental feeding for livestock continued but decreased. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 6 21:15:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 6 21:15:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. into Tuesday. ...20Z Update... Lightning with convection overspreading far southern Lower Michigan appears to have diminished, as lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer have stabilized. The potential for additional lightning producing convection across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity seems rather low, as the somewhat better elevated moisture return becomes cut off from the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent now beginning to shift into and east/southeast of the Lake Erie vicinity. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates does appear to linger along an axis from near Lake Erie through western Pennsylvania, where the risk for lightning producing convection may not yet be completely negligible late this afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023/ ...Discussion... A confined swath of elevated thunderstorms may persist into the early evening along the southern rim of the Great Lakes region ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east from the Upper MS Valley. Very isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly this afternoon, along the OR/northern CA coast into the northern Central Valley amid a steep low to mid-level lapse environment within a broad upper trough. Scant buoyancy will limit updraft intensity in both regions and severe storms are not anticipated. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may impact parts of northwestern Texas and southwestern into central Oklahoma Tuesday evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather--mainly in the form of hail. ...Synopsis... A number of closed mid-level circulations have and continue to evolve within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic. By Tuesday, this will include a couple of highs in the higher latitudes of the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, a broad weak low will encompass much of the western and central Canadian Provinces into the northwestern U.S., with the most notable embedded perturbation pivoting westward and southwestward across Yukon and British Columbia. A less prominent impulse is forecast to progress inland across parts of southwestern Oregon and northern California. The southern periphery of the broader-scale cyclonic flow will curve inland across southern California into the northern Great Plains, generally in phase with another branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific. A more subtle perturbation emanating from this latter regime, and others within a separate belt emerging from even lower latitudes, appear likely to cross the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau, and eventually round the crest of mid-level ridging maintained across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast. Farther downstream, models indicate that a significant mid-level low will dig offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, the leading edge of a substantive cold intrusion now underway to the lee of the northern Rockies is forecast to nose through much of the Southeast Tuesday through Tuesday night. Southward advancement through the lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent portions of the lower southern Great Plains, may be slower. It does appear that low-level Gulf moisture return, above the shallow front across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ozark Plateau, will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development by Tuesday night. ...Southern Great Plains vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew points likely will be present to the south of the surface frontal zone. However, it appears that areas roughly from the Texas South Plains and Red River southward may remain capped by warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere. Furthermore, the surface front is already nosing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and it is appearing increasingly probable that the shallow leading edge of the cold air will reach and remain entrenched to the north of the Texas South Plains/Red River vicinity through Tuesday/Tuesday night. It does still appear possible, though, that modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to sufficient elevated instability to support at least some risk for severe hail (vertical shear should be favorable), mainly in initial storm development in response to forcing associated with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may impact parts of northwestern Texas and southwestern into central Oklahoma Tuesday evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather--mainly in the form of hail. ...Synopsis... A number of closed mid-level circulations have and continue to evolve within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic. By Tuesday, this will include a couple of highs in the higher latitudes of the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, a broad weak low will encompass much of the western and central Canadian Provinces into the northwestern U.S., with the most notable embedded perturbation pivoting westward and southwestward across Yukon and British Columbia. A less prominent impulse is forecast to progress inland across parts of southwestern Oregon and northern California. The southern periphery of the broader-scale cyclonic flow will curve inland across southern California into the northern Great Plains, generally in phase with another branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific. A more subtle perturbation emanating from this latter regime, and others within a separate belt emerging from even lower latitudes, appear likely to cross the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau, and eventually round the crest of mid-level ridging maintained across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast. Farther downstream, models indicate that a significant mid-level low will dig offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, the leading edge of a substantive cold intrusion now underway to the lee of the northern Rockies is forecast to nose through much of the Southeast Tuesday through Tuesday night. Southward advancement through the lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent portions of the lower southern Great Plains, may be slower. It does appear that low-level Gulf moisture return, above the shallow front across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ozark Plateau, will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development by Tuesday night. ...Southern Great Plains vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew points likely will be present to the south of the surface frontal zone. However, it appears that areas roughly from the Texas South Plains and Red River southward may remain capped by warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere. Furthermore, the surface front is already nosing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and it is appearing increasingly probable that the shallow leading edge of the cold air will reach and remain entrenched to the north of the Texas South Plains/Red River vicinity through Tuesday/Tuesday night. It does still appear possible, though, that modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to sufficient elevated instability to support at least some risk for severe hail (vertical shear should be favorable), mainly in initial storm development in response to forcing associated with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2023 Read more