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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, surface high pressure will shift eastward from the Plains into the MS Valley, while moderate westerly midlevel flow persists across the central/southern Rockies. As a result, dry/breezy southerly return flow will overspread the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH should support high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions -- especially from northeastern NM into far southeastern CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CEW TO 20 ENE DHN TO 25 WNW ABY TO 20 ENE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 20 SW VDI TO 35 ENE VDI TO 30 NNE SAV. ..LYONS..03/27/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC061-069-272040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENEVA HOUSTON GAC001-005-017-029-037-051-069-095-099-103-109-155-161-179-183- 191-267-271-305-321-272040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BEN HILL BRYAN CALHOUN CHATHAM COFFEE DOUGHERTY EARLY EFFINGHAM EVANS IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH TATTNALL TELFAIR WAYNE WORTH SCC013-053-272040- Read more

WW 92 SEVERE TSTM AL GA SC 271500Z - 272200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 92 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Southern and Central Georgia Southern South Carolina * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1100 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to gradually intensify into this afternoon along and south of a boundary across the region, with the strongest storms capable of a hail and damaging wind risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Troy AL to 25 miles north northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 91... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE GULF COAST TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday afternoon across portions of the central Gulf coast into southern Georgia and northern Florida. Strong gusts and hail will be the main hazards with these storms. Additional isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in south Texas Tuesday night with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. ...Synopsis... A stationary front will be somewhere near the Florida/Georgia border Tuesday morning and extend westward along the Gulf Coast to south-central Texas. During the day, this front is expected to advance southeastward as a cold front as strong high pressure builds into the Plains and strengthens the offshore pressure gradient. ...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia/Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Storm mode will likely be messy, but some threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible with the stronger storms, particularly any storms which remain south of the surface boundary. These storms are expected to congeal into a line and move southward offshore during the afternoon as the surface front starts to advance south. Farther east across southern Georgia/Florida, a slightly greater severe weather threat may exist where some surface heating may occur in the morning and develop moderate MLCAPE amongst effective shear around 40-45 kts. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat. ...South Texas... Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during much of the period Tuesday. Forcing will be nebulous, but a southward surging front in the morning, and an approaching subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms. Large hail will be the primary threat, but a moist profile (2 in. PWAT) and only a weak surface inversion could support an isolated wet microburst. ..Bentley.. 03/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. ...Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ...Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/27/2023 Read more

Years of drought have weakened California’s trees, causing trees to fall and injure people, sometimes fatally so, amid the intense series of storms that have hit the state this winter. Strong winds, combined with saturated soils, can allow the drought-affected root system to give way. On March 21, amid a strong storm, trees claimed the lives of five people in the Bay Area. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), March 26, 2023

A burn ban was in effect for the unincorporated parts of Osceola County as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index reached 515, with 94% of the county between 400 and 600. All types of outdoor burning were banned, including open fire pits, campfires and the burning of yard debris. As recently as Oct. 1, 2022, the county's average KBDI was less than 100 after Hurricane Ian soaked the county with 15 inches of rain on Sept. 28-29. Osceola News-Gazette (Fla.), March 27, 2023

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0088 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 88 TORNADO LA MS 262055Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell storms are expected to develop across and move into southern and parts of central Mississippi this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats initially, but the tornado potential should increase toward and after sunset, when low-level shear will considerably increase. This includes the potential for long-lived supercells and strong tornadoes (EF2+). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Natchez MS to 35 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-109-113-129-131- 262140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-262140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 86 SEVERE TSTM AL 261700Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist and somewhat increase this afternoon across southern Alabama as temperatures warm and the air mass destabilizes. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are the most probable hazards this afternoon. The tornado potential is expected to increase across parts of the region later into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Evergreen AL to 30 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-059-069-079-085-097-107- 115-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-291-351-373-403-405-407-457-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY NEWTON POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO TYLER Read more

WW 87 TORNADO LA TX 261745Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms including supercells are expected to develop along a boundary from southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large hail can be expected, aside from damaging winds and an increasing tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria LA to 55 miles south southwest of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262006Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will rapidly increase in the next few hours across parts of Mississippi. Very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has been occurring today across central and southern MS, where temperatures have risen well into the 80s. A surface warm front is lifting northward across the region, allowing 70s dewpoints to spread into central MS. This is yielding MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg with minimal cap. Several intense severe/supercell storms have developed over western/central LA that will track eastward into MS beginning after 4pm. Other isolated cells are likely to form out ahead of this activity through the evening. Forecast soundings indicate an environment very favorable for discrete supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. Low-level winds will strengthen rapidly by late afternoon/early evening. This may also increase the risk of strong tornadoes - especially for those storms that can track in vicinity of the surface warm front. A tornado watch will be issued within the hour. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32679195 32858885 32198843 30748885 30569184 32679195 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern and Central Mississippi Southern Alabama Central Louisiana Far East/Southeast Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However, this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z. Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from this activity. Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong. Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details. A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional information. ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus depicts relatively more widespread Critical meteorological surface conditions. Nonetheless, fuels remain modestly receptive to fire spread. As such, Critical conditions have been withheld, with the expectation for an overall high-end Elevated wildfire-spread threat to materialize by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft (70-80 kt 500-mb flow) will cross the central Rockies early in the day, promoting weak lee cyclogenesis over the central/southern High Plains. In response, breezy westerly surface winds should develop over portions of far southeastern CO, northeastern NM, and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Through this corridor, efficient diurnal heating/mixing and downslope warming/drying will yield 10-15 percent RH. This will favor elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, prior to a Pacific cold front overspreading the region with a northerly wind shift during the evening/overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast Monday afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across central Texas Monday evening, and the Gulf Coast Monday night. Large hail and occasional damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Monday with neutral height falls/rises expected across the region. A surface low will move off the North Carolina coast near mid-day Monday with a cold front extending southwest to southern MS/AL where it is expected to become stationary and extend back into central Texas. This frontal zone will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day Monday and into Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southern Georgia and Vicinity... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east-central Alabama into northern Georgia along the cold front. South of this cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s, yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This instability will support strengthening of ongoing storms and new development along the front. Long/straight hodographs will favor splitting supercells, with the right-movers favored due to storm motion off of/ahead of the front. Veering of surface flow as temperatures warm and the boundary layer mixes should mitigate the tornado threat with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. ...Central Texas into the Gulf Coast... A large hail threat may develop Monday afternoon across central Texas in a region of weak isentropic ascent with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. If forcing is sufficient for storm development, 90 kts of LCL-EL shear will support supercells with the potential for large hail. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows storms in the region, but intensity is relatively muted. Nonetheless, given the environment, at least isolated large hail is possible. Overnight, a surface high pressure center will move into the northern Plains. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the southern Plains and advance the surface front southward. As this front moves south into a progressively more unstable airmass, thunderstorm chances increase. MUCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg is expected from central Texas to the Louisiana coast with moderate mid-level flow providing ample shear for storm organization. Therefore, a conditional supercell threat is possible from central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Most storms will likely be elevated due to the front as the primary forcing mechanism and its southward movement during the early morning hours on Tuesday. However, some guidance has a few cells developing ahead of the front and remaining surface based for an hour or two. ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/26/2023 Read more