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The Guadalupe and Comal rivers were flowing more slowly, due to drought, but still offered great fishing, camping and tubing. WOAI NBC 4 San Antonio (Texas), March 28, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track regarding high-end critical fire-weather conditions developing over portions of the central/southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon and evening. The Critical area has been expanded to the southwest to account for anticipated strong surface winds amidst relative humidities around 10 percent or lower. The potential for extremely critical meteorological surface conditions to materialize continues along a corridor from northeastern NM arcing south-southwestward through the El Paso Metro and vicinity. However, forecast fuel conditions in the region do not support an Extremely Critical area on Friday afternoon. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough accompanied by strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. During the afternoon hours, a related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen near northeastern CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Into the evening/overnight hours, the surface cyclone will continue eastward across the central Plains, while an attendant Pacific cold front overspreads the central/southern High Plains. This pattern will yield an expansive area of high-end critical conditions over portions of the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Behind the dryline over the southern/central High Plains, deep boundary-layer mixing aided by strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will yield an expansive area of single-digit to lower teens RH. While forecast soundings indicate the potential for lingering high clouds over parts of west TX, the strong downslope flow should easily compensate for this. At the same time, a rapidly tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface low will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. And, the deep boundary-layer mixing into strong flow aloft will favor gusts upwards of 50 mph. These conditions will support high-end critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/evening hours. Over parts of eastern NM, sustained surface winds in excess of 30 mph could lead to extremely critical meteorological conditions; however, the current state of fuels does not support such highlights at this time. During the evening/overnight hours, a westerly wind shift can be expected behind the Pacific cold front, with winds remaining strong/gusty in the wake of the front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Brevard County has issued a burn ban due to dry ground and the lack of rain. The neighboring counties of Orange, Osceola and Seminole also have restrictions on outdoor burning. WMFE-FM 90.7 (Orlando, Fla.), March 29, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central Plains Thursday evening and overnight. ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow is expected across much of the CONUS as an active flow regime continues. An anomalously deep upper-level cyclone over the West Coast is forecast to shift eastward across the Southwest as it transitions toward an open wave through Thursday. A lee cyclone over eastern CO should deepen as lift from the trough and an 80-90 kt jet streak overspreads the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. To the east, shortwave ridging over the Southeast will support broad southerly return flow across the center of the country. A warm front will rapidly lift poleward extending into KS/NE by the end of the period. Weak destabilization and strong shear near and south of the front may support isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of the deepening surface cyclone across the central and southern Great Plains Thursday evening into the overnight hours. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to eject eastward out of the Southwest over the Rockies and High Plains, large-scale ascent from the advancing polar jet streak/trough is forecast to generally lag behind the returning warm sector farther east. Despite rapid northward advection of upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints, perhaps as far north as KS/OK by 00z, considerable inhibition is expected during the daylight hours across much of the southern Plains. This should generally suppress surface based thunderstorms until after sunset, though a conditional risk for a supercell will remain possible primarily across southwestern OK. A few elevated cells may develop with a small southern stream perturbation passing over portions of eastern OK with a risk for hail and or wind. Gradually increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing Pacific front/dryline may allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop near the Red River in south-central/southeastern OK and track east northeastward overnight. While likely somewhat stable in the low levels, increasing vertical shear supportive of organized storms, including supercells, may promote a risk for isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Central Plains and Midwest... Farther north, large-scale forcing will arrive earlier in the diurnal cycle across portions of eastern NE/SD into the upper Midwest, but the low-levels will remain mostly stable at the tip of the moist plume rapidly advecting north. As a result, limited buoyancy (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) is expected despite steeper mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the trough. Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop late in the afternoon from eastern NE into southern SD capable of some severe hail given favorable shear profiles for supercells. As the main trough continues eastward, low-level mass response from the deepening surface low should allow for more widespread thunderstorms to develop after dark. Elevated thunderstorms should develop in an arc near the core of the low-level jet from western IA, toward southwestern MN. Severe hail may develop north of the warm front through the overnight and into early Friday Morning. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible farther east over portions of northern and central IL, but confidence in severe potential here is lower owing to weaker forcing and more limited lapse rates aloft. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms should develop along both sea breezes during the late afternoon and may converge over the Everglades by early evening. Relatively modest low-level moisture and weaknesses in mid-level lapse rates per 12Z observed Miami/Key West soundings should hold MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. A couple of the strongest updrafts may produce gusty winds and small hail across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...Lee of the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes will take on a negative tilt as it progresses across the Saint Lawrence Valley through Thursday morning. This will result in cyclogenesis over Quebec with a sharpening cold front trailing across southern Ontario, and pushing east in New York/Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and evening. Buoyancy will be minimal (MLCAPE <=100 J/kg) ahead of the front owing to surface dew points in the 20s. But the strengthening large-scale ascent should support a high-based, low-topped band of convection along the front. Increasing low-level flow behind the front will be mixed to the surface and yield gusty winds. Graupel and even a snow squall will be possible as temperatures tumble. ...Central/Southern California... The closed upper low off the coastal of northern California this morning will spread south-southeastward toward the central California coast through tonight. A few stronger low-topped thunderstorms could occur near the north-central Coast this afternoon and/or across the central Valley late this afternoon, pending cloud breaks/modest destabilization. For southern California, it still appears that severe-weather potential will remain low given the limited low-level moisture influx and weak destabilization inland. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/29/2023 Read more

Grover Beach enacted a mandatory 10% reduction in water use, but was not adopting penalties. KSBY-TV San Luis Obispo (Calif.), May 17, 2022

East Bay Municipal Utilities District announced on March 28, 2023, that they were adjusting the emergency drought regulations as reservoirs were expected to fully refill. Penalties for excessive water use were suspended on March 29. The order for 10% mandatory conservation has become 10% voluntary water use reduction. KTVU (San Francisco, Calif.), March 28, 2023 EBMUD remained in a stage 2 drought with a mandated 10% reduction in water use and other directives, such as watering outdoors no more than thrice weekly, no pavement washing, etc. The drought surcharge ended on March 1, 2023. Berkeleyside (Berkeley, Calif.), March 2, 2023 East Bay Municipal Utility District declared a Stage 2 drought, meaning 10% mandatory restrictions and probably a drought surcharge for the 1.4 million customers. Excessive water use penalties may also be a possibility in the near future. CBS San Francisco (Calif.), April 26, 2022

Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency in Grant and Deschutes counties. The two counties remain gripped by drought conditions as streamflows were 78% of average in Deschutes County and 44% of average in Grant County. Reservoir conditions in the Deschutes Basin are approaching historic lows while soil moisture conditions remain extremely dry. In mid-February, the governor issued the first drought emergencies in 2023 for Crook and Jefferson counties. KOIN-TV CBS 6 (Portland, Ore.), March 24, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 28 20:16:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 28 20:16:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and some hail will remain possible into the evening across portions of the Southeast. ...20z Update... An isolated risk for damaging winds and hail will continue across portions of the FL Panhandle/northern Peninsula and far southern GA into this evening. An amalgamation of short line segments and clusters of strong, and occasionally severe storms should remain along and south of I-10 through the next several hours. The environment to the north will gradually be undercut by a southward advancing cold front near the FL/GA state line as storms approach the Atlantic coast. While confidence in severe storms is not overly high, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear should continue to support an isolated severe risk into this evening. The Marginal risk and surrounding general thunder have been trimmed where storms are no longer expected. Farther west across portions of western and central TX, isolated elevated thunderstorms will remain possible overnight with a passing shortwave trough. Activity should remain sporadic with marginal buoyancy, and severe weather is not expected. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ...Coastal Southeast... A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization (upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift offshore and/or weaken by around sunset. ...Deep South Texas... Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air. Read more

The lack of rainfall led Seminole County officials to enact a burn ban prohibiting open fires, including bonfires, campfires and the burning of vegetative debris. The ban took effect as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index reached or exceeded 500. The forecast is for dry weather. Property owners were urged to clear trash and dead vegetation from their yards. Orlando Sentinel (Fla.), March 28, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor adjustments made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough will advance eastward across the western CONUS. Preceding the trough, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the central/southern Rockies, promoting continued lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains. Here, 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds combined with 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level flow pattern is forecast to gradually amplify across much of the CONUS D2/Wednesday. Large-scale troughing over the eastern half of the country will shift eastward as it becomes broader before eventually moving offshore. To the west, a shortwave ridge will build over the center of the country as a second trough/closed low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure initially over the Midwest will gradually strengthen and shift eastward with time in the wake of a cold front sweeping to the south. Farther west, low pressure will move onshore over central CA as several weak areas of low pressure slowly consolidate over the Intermountain West and the lee of the Rockies. ...South Florida... Across the southern Peninsula, afternoon heating ahead of the slow-moving cold front and sea breeze boundaries should support the development of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Area model soundings show only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak to moderate uni-directional shear profiles below 6 km. Despite some lingering enhanced flow aloft at the base of the departing northeastern US trough, storm organization potential appears relatively low. Afternoon mixing, and the somewhat enhanced flow aloft may allow for an isolated stronger downdraft capable of strong to severe winds. However confidence is limited, and severe probabilities are expected to remain below 5 percent. ...California... As the upper low moves onshore over southern and central CA early D2/Wednesday, strong flow aloft, mid-level height falls, and cold advection aloft may allow for sufficient destabilization to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Confidence in storm development is highest across portions of the southern Central Valley, closest to the H5 -30C cold pocket aloft. Despite the cool temperatures aloft, widespread cloud cover and precipitation from subtropical moisture should limit diurnal heating and subsequent lapse rates/instability. Vertical wind profiles could briefly support some transient organized updrafts capable of small hail, but the limited instability and weak low-level and effective shear should limit the severe potential below Marginal criteria. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast US... As the aforementioned eastern US upper trough shifts eastward, a strong surface cold front will move out of southern Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Marginal buoyancy with steep lapse rates may allow for a few lightning flashes to develop within a band of strongly forced, low-topped, convection along the front Wednesday afternoon/evening. Winds in the lowest few km are not expected to be overly strong, but may still support a few sub-severe gusts with the convective band as it moves eastward through the afternoon. A thunder area has been added. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/28/2023 Read more

Randall County commissioners also voted to extend the county’s 90-day burn ban, which would have expired on March 21, but was in effect through June 19. Amarillo Globe-News (Texas), March 28, 2023 The Randall County 90-day burn ban has been in effect since at least Sept. 21, 2022, and will be extended through March 21, 2023. It was prohibited to burn trash, debris and brush in unincorporated parts of the county. KAMR-TV NBC 4 Amarillo (Texas), Dec. 14, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and some hail are expected through the afternoon across portions of the Southeast. ...Coastal Southeast... A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization (upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift offshore and/or weaken by around sunset. ...Deep South Texas... Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the eastern CONUS today, while broad/enhanced westerly midlevel flow persists over the central/southern Rockies in its wake. As surface high pressure shifts eastward from the central Plains into the MS Valley, dry/breezy southerly return flow will overspread the central/southern High Plains -- aided by weak lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO. This will support 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH, yielding high-end elevated to near-critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GA...FAR SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle...Southern GA...Far Southeast AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92... Valid 272011Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts or instances of hail remain possible, but limited coverage and severity preclude the need for a downstream watch. DISCUSSION...Convective evolution continues to trend towards bowing line segments along the composite outflow pushing southeastward across far southeast AL and southern GA into the central/western FL Panhandle. This trend is expected to persist, likely occurring next with the multicell cluster over far southeast AL. Gusts have remain sub-severe throughout the day, and that trend is expected to continue as well. The airmass downstream has also mixed out well, with the greater convective inhibition potentially contributing to gradually diminishing storm intensity. All of these factors suggest low severe potential, with only isolated damaging gusts and/or instances of hail anticipated. As such, a downstream watch is not needed. ..Mosier.. 03/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30548635 31128597 31688369 32258155 32068082 31028165 30178539 30548635 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast States through tonight. A Marginal Risk was added for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. See MCD 376 for additional details on the afternoon threat. This threat will persist into the overnight period as a front moves south through the region elevated instability. A few thunderstorms have developed in west-central North Carolina. However, relatively warm mid-level temperatures seem to have mitigated updraft intensity thus far. Expect storms to mostly remain below severe limits through the afternoon/evening. See MCD 375 for additional details. Otherwise, adjusted the Marginal and Slight Risk slightly farther south in Georgia and southeast Alabama to account for the current frontal position as storms and the front continue to shift south. ..Bentley.. 03/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/ ...Southeast States... Clusters of storms continue to be focused along a composite outflow-reinforced boundary that extends from southeast Alabama across central Georgia/southern South Carolina as of midday. Even while the primary embedded shortwave trough shifts away toward the Atlantic, diurnal heating and cloud breaks should allow for a gradual intensification of storms through the afternoon, with multicellular clusters of storms common. Isolated instances of damaging winds can be expected through early evening with the strongest storms. A tornado cannot be entirely discounted across parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina, but weakening winds in the 1-2 km AGL layer should limit such potential. ...Southeast Texas and Louisiana... The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 373 for additional details. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/central Texas vicinity... There are some indications that a couple of marginally severe elevated storms could develop across the region late this afternoon/early evening, with modest moisture/buoyancy supporting this potential. At this time, the potential for organized/sustained severe storms is still expected to remain low. Read more