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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2344 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250551Z - 250745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with the most robust convection early this morning. DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt upper trough is advancing northeast across the lower MS Delta region this evening. An extensive region of convection continues ahead of this feature extending from the northern Gulf Basin, northwest across southeast MS/southern AL. Boundary-layer air mass has been slow to modify inland, but surface dew points have crept into the lower 60s along the immediate coast with a 66F dew point now observed at Gulf Shores. Latest radar data suggests a few updrafts, embedded within this larger corridor of convection, are exhibiting some rotation, albeit mostly weak. These circulations may be enhanced somewhat due to an approaching MCV-like feature located about 50 mi south of MOB. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection is likely with 64F dew points, although instability will remain poor. Even so, some risk for a brief tornado or gusty winds may be noted with the strongest convection as it moves inland. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29908824 31148877 31328772 30198676 29738736 29908824 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more