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WW 96 TORNADO IL IN WI LM 311935Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 96 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over northwest Illinois will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Another line of storms will threaten the area later this afternoon with a second round of severe/tornado threat. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Milwaukee WI to 65 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Hart Read more

MD 0407 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 93... FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 312059Z - 312130Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the potential for a strong tornado. DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment, this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as this storm continues to the north and east. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137 41629134 41399161 41039220 Read more

MD 0406 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 93... FOR TEST
Mesoscale Discussion 0406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...test Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 312054Z - 312130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Likely strong tornado (upper EF2 to EF3) ongoing northeast of Ottumwa. The downstream environment will continue to support the potential for a strong tornado. DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Ottumwa has shown increasing low-level rotation with a tornado recently confirmed. Current VROT observations from KDMX are around 60 kts. Given the environment, this would suggest a strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The deepening surface low and continued backed surface winds in eastern Iowa will continue to support a strong/intense tornado threat as this storm continues to the north and east. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41039220 41039243 41219247 41599221 41909176 41899137 41629134 41399161 41039220 Read more

MD 0405 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 96... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin...and northwest Indiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 96... Valid 312050Z - 312145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for hail and tornadoes will continue across WW93 as storms approach the Chicago metro. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells across north-central IL should continue northeastward reaching the western Chicago Suburbs and southern WI over the next 1-2 hours. Numerous reports of severe hail have been received this afternoon and should continue as storms track northeastward. Around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 60+ kt of effective shear strongly favor hail production with a supercell mode. A risk for tornadoes may also evolve as storms approach the more strongly sheared warm frontal zone over southern WI and northeastern IL. Though this is more uncertain owing to more marginal surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F. ..Lyons.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 42559008 42968939 42948838 42918795 42758773 42708775 42318778 41618740 41188723 40908722 40408753 40358812 40498918 40948974 41468995 41759004 42559008 Read more

MD 0404 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94... FOR AR INTO PARTS OF THE MS/TN VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...AR into parts of the MS/TN Valleys Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 312042Z - 312215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will continue into the early evening, with a continued risk of strong tornadoes. Downstream watch issuance may be needed prior to 00Z. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing at 2030 UTC near and east of Little Rock, with the lead supercell having earlier produced an apparent strong tornado near/north of Little Rock. This supercell cluster will continue to move east-northeastward toward the MS River, with additional supercell development expected with convection now developing across western AR. The lead supercell cluster will be moving through the strongest low-level shear environment into early evening, with the low-level jet expected to become maximized near the MS Valley region. Strong tornadoes will remain possible with this cluster into eastern AR, western TN, and northwest MS. Farther west, some veering of low-level flow has been noted, but moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear of 70+ kt) will continue to be very favorable for discrete supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with any supercells that develop across western AR and move east-northeastward into early evening, with low-level flow/shear remaining sufficient to support a strong tornado threat with any longer-lived supercells. The severe thunderstorm threat will begin to spread east of WW 94 by early evening, and downstream watch issuance will likely be needed prior to 00Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34569438 35329413 35929326 36239151 36888779 34808776 34188874 33928957 33749092 33609230 33539315 33519409 33939439 34569438 Read more

MD 0403 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...southeastern MN and south-central WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312038Z - 312245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail may develop and spread northward from northern IA into southeastern MN. Locally severe thunderstorms may also eventually spread into south-central WI towards this evening. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows the mid-level low over the north-central Great Plains gradually moving towards the upper MS Valley. Strong large-scale ascent has overspread the northern periphery of the warm sector over north-central IA. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread downstream towards the northeast within an adequately unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) and strongly sheared environment to the north of the warm front. As this surface-based thunderstorm activity over northern IA moves across and north of the warm front, the storms will become elevated but a few of the stronger storms may pose a risk for large hail. At this time the threat appears localized but convective trends will be monitored. ..Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43529394 44039332 44269151 43908919 43398852 43188877 43538996 43529394 Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/31/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039- 041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073- 075-077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107- 109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141- 145-147-149-312140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT POLK POPE Read more

WW 94 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN TX 311730Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southern Missouri Northwest Mississippi West Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread across the mid Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of damaging tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. Parameters are sufficiently favorable for the risk of strong/violent tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR to 5 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/31/23 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-312140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER OKC089-312140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN TXC001-005-063-073-119-145-159-161-183-203-213-223-225-231-257- 277-289-293-315-343-347-349-365-379-387-395-401-405-419-423-449- 455-459-467-499-312140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA CAMP Read more

WW 95 TORNADO LA OK TX 311835Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a line from southeast Oklahoma to just east of Dallas. These storms will track eastward through the afternoon and build southward, posing a risk of large hail and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Lufkin TX to 40 miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0402 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 93... FOR PORTIONS OF IOWA NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Iowa Northeastern Missouri and western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 312017Z - 312145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous supercells are ongoing from IA, into central MO and western IL. Severe potential is expected to increase as storms move into strong low-level shear over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...As of 2010 UTC, numerous well-developed supercells were ongoing across the MDT and HIGH Risk areas across the Midwest. Storms have thus far been prolific hail producers owing to veered low-level winds and steep mid-level lapse rates. Despite somewhat marginal moisture (upper 50s low 60s F dewpoints), the ongoing supercells are approaching an area of strong and greater backed low-level winds. Area VAD/VWPS are strongly supportive of low-level mesocyclones. The tornado risk appears to be increasing across eastern IA, eastern MO and western IL. While widespread severe weather of all hazards is expected over the next couple of hours, several smaller corridors of locally greater threat are becoming apparent across eastern IA and northern MO into western IL. Farther south to the north of the St Louis Metro, several discreet cells are also visible moving into a favorable environment for tornadoes. It remains unclear if additional development will occur to this south, but little inhibition remains. There is the potential for additional discrete supercells to develop and track into east-central MO and eventually western IL. Should this occur, large hail, and tornadoes (some significant) are possible. ..Lyons.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41689368 42299357 42889313 43039234 42909106 42189029 40878959 39138956 38828977 38299071 38129165 38149295 38579332 39219304 39929318 40669348 41269358 41689368 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND IN PART OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak will continue this afternoon and evening across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. Multiple strong tornadoes are expected, some long tracked. A violent tornado will be possible within the High Risk areas. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. ...20Z Update... An outbreak of severe weather continues to evolve this afternoon, with numerous storms currently from IA near the surface low southward along a dryline into northeast TX. The air mass will continue to destabilize over this expansive area, with large-scale lift increase as well. Shear will remain extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes within multiple regimes from the surface low/vort max across IA/MO/IL to the trailing dryline over the lower MS Valley where dewpoints and MLCAPE are greater. 0-1 km shear is particularly strong currently from central AR into southeast MO, with increasing values expected through evening to the northeast. As a strong vort max with rapid cooling aloft overspread the IA and northern MO/IL region, existing storms are expected to intensify, with several likely becoming tornadic and producing very large hail. The very steep lapse rates in this region will maximize updrafts, and may support several intense tornadoes. Rising dewpoints would further support the tornado risk later today. For more information, see any of multiple mesoscale discussions that remain in effect, including #397 for NE MO/Central IL, #398 for northern MO, #399 for central AR and #400 for northern IL into far southern WI. ..Jewell.. 03/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... A dangerous severe weather outbreak is likely across a large portion of the central states this afternoon into tonight. Long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast across a broad region of the MS Valley. The propensity of model-supporting evidence and observational trends lends confidence in the upgrade to bimodal High Risks for the mid MS Valley and lower MS Valleys. ...Midwest and the Mid-MS to OH Valleys... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent 500-mb speed max ejecting east-northeast across the TX Panhandle/western OK to the south of a mid-level low over northern NE. A 992-mb cyclone over western IA will deepen through this afternoon as it matures into the Upper MS Valley before occluding this evening. Visible-satellite imagery/surface observations show a plume of increasingly rich low-level moisture rapidly advecting northward into the lower MO Valley with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 60s F. Strong heating in combination with low-level moistening and cooling mid-level temperatures, are expected to result in a relatively large corridor featuring 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across a moderate to strongly unstable warm sector. In agreement with prior forecast thinking, it seems the primary severe evolution remains likely to evolve beginning around 19Z to the southeast of the deep cyclone across central IA and broadening in coverage through the late afternoon along the north/south-oriented cold front arcing southward into eastern MO. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and an elongated mid to upper-level hodograph will initially support a broken band of supercells capable of producing very large hail. The risk for tornadoes will likely focus initially with supercells near and southeast of the surface low. As this activity rapidly spreads into an increasingly favorable low-level SRH environment in the eastern half of IA and the MS Valley, several to numerous tornadoes are expected to form. Forecast soundings within the High Risk show large 0-3-km MLCAPE co-located with intense speed shear and large low-level and elongated hodographs. Within this arcing band of quasi-discrete supercells, several long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast for this afternoon into the evening. Eventual upscale growth into an intense squall line with embedded cellular elements is expected to evolve during the evening into tonight across IL and rapidly sweep eastward across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Some risk for tornadoes will probably spread east with the squall line coincident with a 70-kt 700-mb speed max overspreading the region. Severe gusts (60-90 mph) are possible with surges/bowing structures and embedded cells within the band of storms. Have expanded the Moderate Risk due to significant wind gusts across eastern IL into IN. By late tonight, the evolving QLCS will outpace weakening surface-based instability around the central OH Valley. Extreme low-level wind fields could support a waning wind/brief tornado threat approaching the central Appalachians. ...Ark-La-Tex to the Lower MS/TN Valleys... Multiple rounds of severe convection are expected to unfold, intensifying this afternoon in AR and Ark-La-Tex, before continuing east across the Lower MS into the TN Valleys through tonight. Rapid airmass modification is currently underway across the lower MS Valley with mid 60s deg F dewpoints surging north-northeast across southern AR and towards the AR/TN/MS region. Initially, a capped warm sector via an EML will act to limit storm development (isolated early afternoon storms with mainly a hail risk). However, as buoyancy increases (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear profiles intensify, very favorable hodographs are forecast to develop by mid-late afternoon across southern/eastern AR into adjacent portions of MS/TN (effective SRH 300-600 m2/s2). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by late afternoon with these rapidly evolving into supercells. Strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast with a few long-tracked supercells. Upscale growth into a QLCS with embedded supercells appears probable during the late evening and overnight as frontal convergence strengthens. Tornadoes and significant damaging wind swaths will remain possible well into the night across at least into the TN Valley, until warm-sector low-level flow becomes more veered towards the end of the period. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds are expected across parts of the Northeast Saturday during the day and through early evening. Other severe storms will be possible over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A large shortwave-trough will move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic by 00Z, with substantial height falls/cooling aloft overspread the entire region. An intense leading midlevel jet streak will approach the Appalachians by midday, with a secondary cold pocket and vort max aloft affecting the I-95 corridor late in the day. To the south, moderate westerlies aloft will exist over the Southeast, as the influence of the upper trough grazes the area. At the surface, low pressure should gradually deepen as it moves east/northeast from southwest Ontario toward northern ME. Extending east of the low track will be a developing warm front which will bring 50s F dewpoints into southern VT/NH and perhaps ME. Although the primary surface low will move toward more stable areas to the north, a prominent surface trough will develop southward coincident with the secondary vort max moving rapidly east. While various regimes of severe weather may occur with these features, this secondary wave will affect the Mid Atlantic late in the day and into early evening, and is expected to result in wind damage from western MA and CT into far eastern PA, all of NJ, and parts of the Delmarva. A few tornadoes may occur over southern parts of this region. Farther south, a front/dryline will slow as it moves into southern AL and across GA during the day, with a more substantial cold front pushing east across VA and the Carolinas. Scattered severe storms are possible across these areas during the day. ...From eastern OH into New England... The initial severe risk on Saturday will likely be tied to the leading vort max associated with left-front quadrant of the midlevel jet. Cold temperatures aloft will result in 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE in the corridor from eastern OH/western PA across much of NY and into New England by late afternoon. The combination of very steep, deep-layer lapse rates along with increasing boundary-layer wind speeds suggest any convection at all will have the potential to enhance downward mixing. This seems likely given expected sufficient instability. The northward extent of this damaging wind regime will be limited by the warm front, and it is possible that this boundary eventually makes it into extreme southern ME. ...From the Delmarva across NJ and into southern New England... Southerly surface winds for most of the day will help deepen the moist boundary layer, with a plume of upper 50s F to near 60 F dewpoints from eastern VA northward across Philadelphia and into far southeast NY. Strong heating will occur along and west of this moist plume, priming the air mass for the arrival of an intense cold front arrive very late in the day and into early evening for eastern areas. Forecast soundings reveal supercell wind profiles with effective SRH over 300 m2/s2, and long hodographs as well. The forecast is for storms to form in the moist axis as the front rapidly intercepts the moist air mass, with rapid changes taking place aloft. Some of these storms could develop along coastal counties as well, and at least isolated supercells are expected. A conditional tornado risk will exist where SBCAPE remains favorable, centered over NJ and DE. Damaging winds will be quite likely with any strong convection given 50+ kt winds out of the northwest just off the surface. Clearly, these will be able to mix to the surface. Various models appear to be struggling with this area, thus there is uncertainty in the magnitude of the severe risk. ...Southern GA into the eastern Carolinas... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may be ongoing ahead of the surface boundary early in the day, beneath southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow and within a theta-e plume. Strong heating is expected near the synoptic boundary and deepening surface trough, and the presence of mid 60s F dewpoints will lead to ample instability to support daytime storms despite lack of upper support. With time, storms along the boundary may develop into supercells as deep-layer shear will be strong and effective SRH averages 150-200 m2/s2. Any supercell/tornado threat is expected to be limited as midlevel subsidence occurs, but sporadic hail, a brief tornado, and damaging gusts will all be possible through the afternoon. Rapid drying from the west should push the severe threat quickly eastward across the region and to the eastern Carolinas before 00Z. ..Jewell.. 03/31/2023 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the portions of the Midwest and the lower MS/TN River Valleys this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Iowa Arkansas Mississippi Tennessee Missouri Kentucky Alabama Indiana Wisconsin Louisiana Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely, centered on this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. Preparedness actions... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely, centered on this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. ...Synopsis... A dangerous severe weather outbreak is likely across a large portion of the central states this afternoon into tonight. Long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast across a broad region of the MS Valley. The propensity of model-supporting evidence and observational trends lends confidence in the upgrade to bimodal High Risks for the mid MS Valley and lower MS Valleys. ...Midwest and the Mid-MS to OH Valleys... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent 500-mb speed max ejecting east-northeast across the TX Panhandle/western OK to the south of a mid-level low over northern NE. A 992-mb cyclone over western IA will deepen through this afternoon as it matures into the Upper MS Valley before occluding this evening. Visible-satellite imagery/surface observations show a plume of increasingly rich low-level moisture rapidly advecting northward into the lower MO Valley with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 60s F. Strong heating in combination with low-level moistening and cooling mid-level temperatures, are expected to result in a relatively large corridor featuring 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across a moderate to strongly unstable warm sector. In agreement with prior forecast thinking, it seems the primary severe evolution remains likely to evolve beginning around 19Z to the southeast of the deep cyclone across central IA and broadening in coverage through the late afternoon along the north/south-oriented cold front arcing southward into eastern MO. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and an elongated mid to upper-level hodograph will initially support a broken band of supercells capable of producing very large hail. The risk for tornadoes will likely focus initially with supercells near and southeast of the surface low. As this activity rapidly spreads into an increasingly favorable low-level SRH environment in the eastern half of IA and the MS Valley, several to numerous tornadoes are expected to form. Forecast soundings within the High Risk show large 0-3-km MLCAPE co-located with intense speed shear and large low-level and elongated hodographs. Within this arcing band of quasi-discrete supercells, several long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast for this afternoon into the evening. Eventual upscale growth into an intense squall line with embedded cellular elements is expected to evolve during the evening into tonight across IL and rapidly sweep eastward across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Some risk for tornadoes will probably spread east with the squall line coincident with a 70-kt 700-mb speed max overspreading the region. Severe gusts (60-90 mph) are possible with surges/bowing structures and embedded cells within the band of storms. Have expanded the Moderate Risk due to significant wind gusts across eastern IL into IN. By late tonight, the evolving QLCS will outpace weakening surface-based instability around the central OH Valley. Extreme low-level wind fields could support a waning wind/brief tornado threat approaching the central Appalachians. ...Ark-La-Tex to the Lower MS/TN Valleys... Multiple rounds of severe convection are expected to unfold, intensifying this afternoon in AR and Ark-La-Tex, before continuing east across the Lower MS into the TN Valleys through tonight. Rapid airmass modification is currently underway across the lower MS Valley with mid 60s deg F dewpoints surging north-northeast across southern AR and towards the AR/TN/MS region. Initially, a capped warm sector via an EML will act to limit storm development (isolated early afternoon storms with mainly a hail risk). However, as buoyancy increases (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear profiles intensify, very favorable hodographs are forecast to develop by mid-late afternoon across southern/eastern AR into adjacent portions of MS/TN (effective SRH 300-600 m2/s2). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by late afternoon with these rapidly evolving into supercells. Strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast with a few long-tracked supercells. Upscale growth into a QLCS with embedded supercells appears probable during the late evening and overnight as frontal convergence strengthens. Tornadoes and significant damaging wind swaths will remain possible well into the night across at least into the TN Valley, until warm-sector low-level flow becomes more veered towards the end of the period. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/31/2023 Read more

Waller County corn growers expected to lose 90% of their corn in July 2022 due to drought. But by harvest time, the corn was a total loss. Present conditions were slightly better than at the same time last year. KTRK ABC 13 (Houston, Texas), March 30, 2023

Belton was in Phase 1 of water restrictions, and Lake Belton was 64.2% full. KCEN HD (Temple, Texas), March 29, 2023

An uptick in brushfire-related calls has kept Hillsborough County firefighters busy as people disregarded the year-round ban on burning yard debris amid an unseasonably dry spell with severe drought in the county. WTVT-TV FOX 13 Tampa Bay (Fla.), March 30, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 30 21:29:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to western Arkansas and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302002Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to slowly increase in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into adjacent portions of western Arkansas and southwest Missouri. While a few large hailstones are possible, this threat should remain too limited for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics have shown a gradual increase in convective cells over northern TX into southern OK over the past hour. Lightning associated with this activity has steadily trended upward within the past 30 minutes as cloud top temperatures cool in IR imagery. This suggests that more robust convective initiation is likely underway and/or is imminent as lift continues within a zone of strong warm advection between 850-700 mb. 18 UTC soundings from OUN and FWD show around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE with effective bulk shear values around 30 knots. This environment is supportive of organized cells capable of severe hail, though recent reflectivity trends hint that thunderstorm clustering/storm interactions may modulate storm longevity and intensity to a degree - likely due to deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the zone of ascent. The expectation is for an increase in coverage of this activity as the zone of mid-level ascent shifts to the northeast into western AR and southwest MO this evening with a few strong to severe cells. Given the modest thermodynamic environment and limited potential for long-lived discrete convection, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33589482 33519696 33599747 33789786 34149815 34629825 35109815 35409787 36989538 37199491 37229441 37149403 36809346 36399308 35649303 34979307 34679315 34229340 33979371 33829417 33589482 Read more