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MD 0211 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Areas affected...Parts of northern South Dakota and south-central/southeast North Dakota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281818Z - 282245Z SUMMARY...A band of snow is likely to develop within the North Dakota/South Dakota border vicinity. A combination of frontal ascent and convective enhancement will promote snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Light snowfall is evident within central/southeast North Dakota, likely associated with a mid-level boundary. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the northern Rockies. Subtle areas of ascent are noted ahead of this trough, one of which is contributing to precipitation moving north/northeast from central South Dakota. With time, the approach of the trough should increase ascent along the mid-level boundary and lead to increased snowfall rates, primarily in parts of southern North Dakota. Visible satellite shows some convective elements embedded within the South Dakota precipitation and forecast soundings suggest cloud-top instability will be present into North Dakota as well. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour are possible, particularly where some convective enhancement occurs. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45619951 45709993 45910070 46300141 46930158 47490061 47439871 46789794 46159768 45909768 45699813 45619951 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO MIDDLE TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from northeast Texas through the Mid-South and into Middle Tennessee, with a threat of hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... The strong shortwave trough currently just off the Pacific Northwest coast is expected to drop south through northern CA today, before then pivoting more eastward/southeastward as it moves from central CA through the southern Great Basin/Lower CO River Valley and AZ. By early Thursday, this shortwave, which will likely have matured into a closed low, is expected to be centered over the AZ/NM border. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this system, extending from the southern High Plains across much of the eastern CONUS. Most guidance indicates a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through this southwesterly flow aloft, progressing from the southern High Plains through the southern and central Plains Wednesday. At the surface, a low will likely be centered over southwest MO. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low through eastern OK and north-central TX. This low is expected to progress northeastward through the OH Valley during the day, while the cold front remains largely stationary. This boundary will eventually begin returning northward Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as surface cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains and the low-level flow increases across the southern Plains. ...North TX through the Arklatex into the Mid-South/TN Valley... Despite a notable mid-level dry layer, convergence along the front coupled with modest large-scale ascent attendant to the lead shortwave may result in isolated thunderstorms Wednesday morning over north-central TX. Primary threat with this activity would be hail. Timing and coverage varies within the guidance, precluding higher probabilities with this outlook. Farther east (from northeast TX/Arklatex into the Mid-South), thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, supported by lift from persistent low-level convergence and the subtle shortwave trough. Storm initiation appears most probable in the Arklatex with storms then potentially maturing across southern AR and far northwest MS. Long hodographs suggest splitting supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible with the mature warm sector storms, including very large hail and tornadoes. Modest ascent results in uncertainty regarding storm coverage within the warm sector. Greater storm coverage is anticipated north of the front, where hail will still be possible, particularly with early development. A trend towards a more linear mode, with one or more bowing segments, is expected over time along and north the front. Potential exists for these more linear storms to encounter less low-level stability farther with eastern extent, increasing the potential for damaging wind gusts from northern MS into Middle TN. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TX... ...Southern High Plains... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments. Portions of the eastern TX/OK panhandles and northwestern OK may experience locally elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. However, recent precipitation has tempered fuels such that confidence in sustained fire-weather concerns is low. The Elevated area was adjusted slightly northeast to cover area of more robust drying in the last 24 hours that may support a local risk of elevated fire-weather concerns. Cooler conditions will gradually develop behind a cold front expected to move south this evening and overnight. Please see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft will yield warming temperatures and relatively dry conditions over portions of the central U.S. this afternoon. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Interior West from around 06-18z. Associated upward forcing -- along with enhanced cross-terrain flow -- will support surface cyclone development in eastern WY/CO and westerly flow across AZ/NM. Moisture will be limited in the wake of a cold frontal passage, yielding critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...Eastern NM and West TX... Downsloping trajectories across NM throughout the morning are expected to yield elevated/critical fire weather conditions by 1800-1900z early this afternoon. Sustained winds around 20+ mph amidst relative humidities around 15-20 percent are expected by this time. These conditions are expected to persist through 0000z with relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent possible during that timeframe. Fuels remain slightly below normal in terms of initial attack and large fire spread. However, this region has experienced a recent lack of rainfall and sustained drying of fuels, especially in eastern portions of the Critical area, where forecast ERCs are around the 70-80th percentile. Some areas of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS received locally large amounts of rain (1-2 inches) in the last 48 hours, resulting in some trimming of the Critical area there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cold mid-level temperatures and some steepening of lapse rates aloft associated with an upper trough digging over the West Coast may support isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection occurring across parts of OR, northern/central CA, and the northern Great Basin through tonight. Meager instability should keep overall thunderstorm coverage quite sparse. A separate shortwave trough will advance northeastward today over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited over these regions. But, very cold mid-level temperatures and some diurnal heating may support weak surface-based instability and potential for isolated thunderstorms across parts of SD and vicinity, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, additional thunderstorm development may occur over parts of central TX near the end of the period (around 09-12Z), associated with gradually increasing low-level moisture/lift and glancing large-scale ascent. MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support some threat for hail with this elevated convection. However, most guidance continues to suggest that the appreciable hail risk should occur after 12Z Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/28/2023 Read more

Rains were localized and many parts of Far West Texas received trace amounts to nothing. Conditions in the Davis Mountains were extremely windy and cold with gusts of up to 80 mph, and low temperatures in the teens. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported around the district. Wheat was starting to joint but was showing moisture stress. The few wheat acres being irrigated looked decent and may be taken to harvest amid attractive prices. Fieldwork slowed except for growers going over fields to prevent the topsoil from blowing away due to high winds. Pre-watering began for a few growers and will significantly increase in coming weeks. Pastures were bare except for a few weeds in low spots. Livestock were in poor to fair condition, and supplemental feeding continued. No major damage from freezing temperatures was reported, but conditions were hard on livestock during lambing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 22, 2023 Some Far West farmers were hitting orchards and remaining alfalfa fields with irrigation still available from the water district. Irrigation was expected to increase in the coming weeks. Pastures were still bare with just a few weeds emerging. Livestock were in poor to fair condition and receiving supplemental hay and feed. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Feb 14, 2023

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LUK TO 25 N LUK TO 25 W DAY TO 30 NNW DAY TO 35 E FWA AND 55 SE LUK TO 45 SSW CMH TO 35 SW CMH TO 35 ENE DAY TO 20 SW FDY. ..WENDT..02/27/23 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC001-041-045-049-065-073-083-089-097-101-117-129-131-141-145- 159-272240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FRANKLIN HARDIN HOCKING KNOX LICKING MADISON MARION MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE ROSS SCIOTO UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 47 TORNADO IN KY OH 271830Z - 272300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Extreme northern Kentucky Western and central Ohio * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells will move eastward this afternoon, while posing some threat for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Dayton OH to 25 miles southeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Gleason/Grams Read more

WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 40 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. PARTS OF WW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA, COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AND WW 40 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/02Z. ..KERR..02/17/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 40 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-021-023-025-047-057-063-065-073-075-091-093-099- 105-107-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-133-170200- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE DALLAS FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR MARENGO MARION MONROE PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC041-111-153-170200- MS Read more

WW 48 TORNADO KY OH WV 272105Z - 280000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kentucky Southeast Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells should quickly progress east across the Upper Ohio Valley before the severe threat wanes this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Zanesville OH to 40 miles south of Athens OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Grams Read more

MD 0208 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Areas affected...Southwest into central Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 47... Valid 272027Z - 272230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging winds will continue into central Ohio. The primary risk will exist with two supercell storms southwest of Columbus. The eastward extent of the severe risk is unclear due to a less favorable downstream thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...Two supercell thunderstorms southwest of Columbus are expected to continue northeast. Though temperatures are a bit cooler into central Ohio, recent clearing/heating has managed to boost temperatures into the mid 50s to around 60 F (at KLCK). The CMH TDWR shows over 600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. With these very favorable wind profiles downstream of ongoing activity, some tornado risk will continue into central Ohio. This risk, however, will be modulated by the quality of the thermodynamic environment. Some heating will continue to occur as clouds diminish, but moisture is also more limited with eastward extent. The need for an additional watch into parts of eastern Ohio is unclear. Convective trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 38958391 38948408 39018417 39188409 39618396 40008407 40258382 40408310 40458221 40328175 40038160 39378200 39058301 39038349 38998382 38958391 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIE TO 5 E MIE TO 10 NE MIE. THE WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY ONCE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST OF JAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. ..SMITH..02/27/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC075-135-272020- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JAY RANDOLPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio. ...20Z Update... Little was changed from the previous outlook except to reduce severe probabilities behind the main front, and across central KY where drying is occurring. Otherwise, shear remains strong across the warm sector, which is bounded to the north by a warm front roughly from central OH into northern WV. Temperatures rising into the 60s F with mid 50s F dewpoints may be sufficient to support several supercells with a few tornadoes possible beneath the cold pocket aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across the Ohio Valley today, especially across parts of Indiana and Ohio. ...20Z Update... Little was changed from the previous outlook except to reduce severe probabilities behind the main front, and across central KY where drying is occurring. Otherwise, shear remains strong across the warm sector, which is bounded to the north by a warm front roughly from central OH into northern WV. Temperatures rising into the 60s F with mid 50s F dewpoints may be sufficient to support several supercells with a few tornadoes possible beneath the cold pocket aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Ohio Valley... A compact shortwave trough with an associated pocket of cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -20C at 500 mb) will advance quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it develops eastward over northern IL, southern Lower MI, and vicinity through this evening. Pronounced low/mid-level flow strengthens and veers with height per recent area VWPs, with plentiful low-level shear to support updraft rotation. While instability should remain fairly weak owing to modest low-level moisture along/south of a warm front, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing occurring across eastern IL into IN this morning. RAP forecast soundings suggest that as surface temperatures warm into the 60s amid mid to upper 50s dewpoints, resultant 250-600 J/kg MLCAPE should support surface-based convection. A 50-60+ kt low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to southwesterly above that through mid levels, is aiding enlarged hodographs across the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 likely along/south of the surface front. A couple of tornadoes have already occurred this morning associated with a low-topped supercell in east-central IL. As additional low-topped storms develop over the next couple of hours and spread eastward into parts of northern/central IN, threat for a few tornadoes should continue given the plentiful low-level shear. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with any small bowing segments. Sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based convection will attempt to advance northward into parts of OH this afternoon as well. Some tornado and damaging wind threat should continue across OH if this occurs, as the enhanced wind fields attendant to the low-level jet and mid-level shortwave trough shift quickly eastward across the OH Valley. These low-topped cells will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return and surface-based instability by this evening, with a lessening severe threat with eastward extent into PA/WV. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.... ...West Texas, the Panhandle and eastern New Mexico... Gusty west/southwesterly surface flow is forecast to gradually intensify through the early afternoon hours as a lee trough deepens across the southern High Plains. Area soundings show surface gusts near 30-35 mph will be possible along with afternoon RH values below 15%. While area fuels remain somewhat less favorable than normal for large fire spread, sufficient overlap of dry and windy conditions exists to support critical fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere across the northeastern Panhandle and west TX, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected though less confidence in duration/overlap and recent precipitation on fuels should temper the threat somewhat. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West, encouraging lee troughing along the High Plains Day 2/Tuesday, when dry and windy surface conditions are expected to be abundant. On Tuesday afternoon, boundary-layer mixing and downslope flow will encourage RH to dip to 10-15 percent on a widespread basis. Sustained surface winds over 20 mph should overlap this dry air for several hours during the afternoon. Critical highlights were introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, and where recent rainfall should have had minimal impact on dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.... ...West Texas, the Panhandle and eastern New Mexico... Gusty west/southwesterly surface flow is forecast to gradually intensify through the early afternoon hours as a lee trough deepens across the southern High Plains. Area soundings show surface gusts near 30-35 mph will be possible along with afternoon RH values below 15%. While area fuels remain somewhat less favorable than normal for large fire spread, sufficient overlap of dry and windy conditions exists to support critical fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere across the northeastern Panhandle and west TX, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected though less confidence in duration/overlap and recent precipitation on fuels should temper the threat somewhat. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West, encouraging lee troughing along the High Plains Day 2/Tuesday, when dry and windy surface conditions are expected to be abundant. On Tuesday afternoon, boundary-layer mixing and downslope flow will encourage RH to dip to 10-15 percent on a widespread basis. Sustained surface winds over 20 mph should overlap this dry air for several hours during the afternoon. Critical highlights were introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, and where recent rainfall should have had minimal impact on dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Gradual height rises and anticyclonic flow aloft will develop over much of the East on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough develops over the West. Stable air will exist over much of the CONUS with a high over the Ohio Valley and cool temperatures over the interior West. Low-level moisture will linger along the Gulf Coast, extending from TX into FL, and will gradually spread northward overnight in response to a low-amplitude wave within the southwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Only modest warm/moist advection is expected as 850 mb winds increase to 20-30 kt from TX into the Deep South, and little instability will be present to support storms. To the west, cold air aloft will exist across the Pacific Northwest, as a strong jet streak dives southward within the backside of the trough. This will enhance lift over northern CA and perhaps into interior northern CA, and very weak instability may be present to support a few lightning flashes. Coastal OR and northern CA may also experience a few low-topped storms as a surface trough develops with increasing shoreline convergence. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Gradual height rises and anticyclonic flow aloft will develop over much of the East on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough develops over the West. Stable air will exist over much of the CONUS with a high over the Ohio Valley and cool temperatures over the interior West. Low-level moisture will linger along the Gulf Coast, extending from TX into FL, and will gradually spread northward overnight in response to a low-amplitude wave within the southwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Only modest warm/moist advection is expected as 850 mb winds increase to 20-30 kt from TX into the Deep South, and little instability will be present to support storms. To the west, cold air aloft will exist across the Pacific Northwest, as a strong jet streak dives southward within the backside of the trough. This will enhance lift over northern CA and perhaps into interior northern CA, and very weak instability may be present to support a few lightning flashes. Coastal OR and northern CA may also experience a few low-topped storms as a surface trough develops with increasing shoreline convergence. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Southern High Plains... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only a few minor adjustments. Portions of southeastern CO were included in the Elevated area for strong downslope flow and low humidity this afternoon. Area fuels have remained mostly dry suggesting elevated to locally critical fire-weather potential. Farther south across eastern NM and portions of west TX, localized areas of critical conditions may occur this afternoon and evening. Enhanced downslope flow will likely support sub-critical RH with wind gusts near 30 mph. However, the spatial and temporal overlap of the critical meteorological conditions and only modestly receptive fuels from recent precipitation suggest any critical fire-weather concerns will likely remain localized. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the central U.S., with a surface low poised to develop across the southern High Plains as an embedded mid-level impulse traverses the southern Rockies today. Deep-layer, dry downslope flow should take place across the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping 15-20 percent RH for several hours. Guidance consensus is also hinting at a narrow corridor of Critical conditions across west-central portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, given the limited spatial extent of such conditions, only Elevated highlights have been introduced this outlook. Highlights mainly include areas where fuels have not been dampened by recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Southern High Plains... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only a few minor adjustments. Portions of southeastern CO were included in the Elevated area for strong downslope flow and low humidity this afternoon. Area fuels have remained mostly dry suggesting elevated to locally critical fire-weather potential. Farther south across eastern NM and portions of west TX, localized areas of critical conditions may occur this afternoon and evening. Enhanced downslope flow will likely support sub-critical RH with wind gusts near 30 mph. However, the spatial and temporal overlap of the critical meteorological conditions and only modestly receptive fuels from recent precipitation suggest any critical fire-weather concerns will likely remain localized. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the central U.S., with a surface low poised to develop across the southern High Plains as an embedded mid-level impulse traverses the southern Rockies today. Deep-layer, dry downslope flow should take place across the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping 15-20 percent RH for several hours. Guidance consensus is also hinting at a narrow corridor of Critical conditions across west-central portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, given the limited spatial extent of such conditions, only Elevated highlights have been introduced this outlook. Highlights mainly include areas where fuels have not been dampened by recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more