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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur today across parts of southern/central California. Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts will also be possible across parts of southeast Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southwest Utah. ...Central/southern California... Cloud breaks, diurnal heating, and steepening mid-level lapse rates (particularly over central California) should allow for some uptick in more cellular/isolated convection into this afternoon within the post-frontal environment. A couple of locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will remain possible into this afternoon over the interior valley and/or near the coast. However, a tendency for veering low-level winds and weakening convergence should lead to a diminished potential over time. ...Southern Great Basin... Coincident with the approach of the upstream shortwave trough and upper jet exit region, there will be a modest increase in low-level moisture immediately ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Surface heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates could support some convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon/early evening via the downward transfer of 50+ kt flow in association with the forced band of convection near the advancing front. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Mon Jan 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Several days of above normal temperatures and weak downslope flow have resulted in drier fuel conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. With stronger flow expected Tues, several hours of lower RH (below 20%) and breezy winds (15-20 mph) are expected in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With the drier fuels, elevated conditions are possible for a few hours. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Plains states tomorrow/Tuesday, enhancing surface lee troughing across the High Plains and promoting another day of dry downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that Elevated overlapping surface winds/RH should become more widespread across the southern High Plains compared to Day 1 given the anticipated strength of the approaching upper trough. Furthermore, multiple days of preceding dry conditions and lack of rainfall suggests that finer fuels may be at least modestly receptive to wildfire-spread, especially across the central Texas Panhandle, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 9 19:07:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 9 19:07:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL MOUNTAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur Tuesday across parts of southern/central California. ...CA... A potent mid-level shortwave trough will move ashore the CA coast during the day with this feature moving to the Four Corners by daybreak Wednesday. Mid-level cold air advection accompanying the trough will act to weakly destabilize the airmass primarily in the vicinity of the central and southern CA coast and adjacent mountains. A plume of deep-layer moisture from the eastern Pacific will favor scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from the coast to areas farther inland (i.e., Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin). Forecast soundings near the coast show weak buoyancy with a strong wind profile featuring veering flow strengthening with height. A few weak, transient embedded cells near the central-southern CA coast may exhibit episodic weak rotation, and perhaps be capable of a localized risk for wind damage or a brief/weak tornado during the day. ..Smith.. 01/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Jan 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire concerns today are low, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level weather pattern will dominate the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs overspreading the East/West Coasts and the Plains states. With surface lee troughing prevailing across the central U.S., dry downslope flow should develop along the lee of the southern Rockies by afternoon. With surface winds expected to be relatively weak on a widespread basis, Elevated conditions should remain localized to terrain-favoring areas of the southern High Plains. Given the spatially confined nature of such conditions and mediocre fuel status, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Jan 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible near California coast late tonight and early Tuesday morning. ...Coastal California... Although some near-coastal thunderstorms are possible today, convective potential is expected to increase tonight through early Tuesday as a shortwave trough and jet streak approach the California coast. It appears that a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE could support some stronger storms as the frontal band approaches the region. In the presence of strong (40-60 kt) winds through the 1-5 km AGL layer, locally damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado could occur late tonight and early Tuesday morning, primarily after 09z. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak downslope flow should persist through D2/Monday in the lee of the southern Rockies. However, area fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread and minimal fire-weather concerns are expected. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, another mid-level impulse will traverse the Southern Plains tomorrow/Monday, supporting dry and breezy downslope conditions along the lee of the Southern Rockies. Locally Elevated surface winds/RH may develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and western portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by afternoon. However, locally Elevated meteorological conditions atop poorly receptive fuels preclude fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 8 18:40:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 8 18:40:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along/near parts of the central California Coast, mainly Monday night into early Tuesday morning. ...California... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will reach the central CA coast late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. DCVA associated with the disturbance will promote an increase in large-scale ascent and development of showers/thunderstorms. Expectedly, models still vary some regarding both moisture quality and buoyancy near central CA coast. Surface dewpoints will likely only rise to the 52-54 deg F range, but the contribution of mid-level cold air advection will result in buoyancy developing near the coast during the late overnight (08-12 UTC). A veering and strengthening wind profile in the boundary layer should support the potential for some transient updraft organization. Low-topped convection possibly evolving into 1 or 2 weakly rotating storms may pose a localized threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Smith.. 01/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak downslope flow may promote brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the lee of the southern Rockies this afternoon. However, spotty fuels will keep concerns too low for probabilities. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern should be in place across the CONUS today, with a mid-level impulse expected to traverse the south-central U.S. and support dry downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies. Locally Elevated equivalent dry and windy conditions are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, particularly northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and far western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. The sparse nature of overlapping Elevated surface wind/RH and mediocre fuel status suggests fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will continue to characterize the upper-level pattern over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by several minoring impulses east of the Rockies while a somewhat more substantial upper trough nears the west Coast late tonight. Initially, thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the Deep South and middle Gulf Coast near the east/southeastward-advancing cold front. However, the coverage of lightning-producing convection will tend to diminish today and become increasingly relegated to the Gulf of Mexico. One exception is that thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight near the coastal Carolinas and particularly over the open Atlantic waters. The primary moisture-rich warm sector should remain offshore, but increasing low-level moisture/instability and strong deep-layer shear could allow for a few strong/rotating storms near coastal North Carolina late tonight. In the West, as a shortwave trough continues to spread northeastward over the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible today across the Sierra Nevada and/or coastal northern California/western Oregon, although thunderstorm potential and coverage will diminish by late afternoon/evening. An additional round of thunderstorm potential will materialize late tonight in association with the warm conveyor ahead of the next West Coast-approaching upper trough. However, much of the nocturnal thunderstorm potential should remain focused offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/08/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and/or thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southeast Texas including the middle/upper Texas coast. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. The forecast seems on track. ..Smith.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023/ ...Southeast Texas including Middle/Upper Texas Coast... Although 12z observed soundings from Brownsville/Corpus Christi and more recent GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) data reflect PW values less than 1 inch, steady air mass modification and a low-level influx of moisture will continue to occur over the western Gulf of Mexico and across the Texas coastal plain through evening. At the same time, a cold front will continue to advance southeastward across the ArkLaTex toward the ArkLaMiss and across much of east and central/south Texas through tonight. Isolated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon, with initial development expected particularly across far east/southeast Texas near the cold front. This is where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will tend to coincide with somewhat weaker capping aloft. Although a few weak/transient supercells could occur, multicells should be most common as storms develop and increase through early evening. Some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible near/just ahead of the front, with severe hail otherwise possible across the region. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 7 19:49:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 7 19:49:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak downslope flow near 10-15 mph is possible across portions of the southern and central High Plains D2/Sunday. However, limited fuels and cooler temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns quiescent through the forecast period. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level trough will approach the Plains states tomorrow/Sunday, promoting dry downslope flow across the lee of the central and southern Rockies. By Sunday afternoon, locally Elevated conditions are possible, particularly across the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains in southern Colorado and some lower terrain areas in east-central New Mexico. Given the limited spatial extent of the Elevated conditions and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A couple of mid-level disturbances will move across parts of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-level trough initially over the mid to lower MS Valley will move east to the Mid-Atlantic states and Southeast during the period. A surface cold front will push southeast across the lower MS Valley during the day. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly near the front. Weak instability will limit updraft strength and stronger storm development. Farther west, a lead mid-level shortwave trough over northern CA will move northeast into the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and weaken. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over central-northern CA and along the coast of OR. ..Smith.. 01/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperatures and limited fuel availability will keep fire-weather concerns minimal over the CONUS. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will approach the Plains states while a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Cooler temperatures will settle in behind a cold front across the Southern Plains. The cooler temperatures and mediocre fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more