Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow will become established over the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse the zonal flow through the day tomorrow (Sunday). The best chance for strong storms will be associated with mid-level impulses impinging on the High Plains and New England Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture and associated instability will precede the impulses, that combined with adequate vertical wind shear, will support storm organization, some of which could be severe. ...Maine... A belt of 50 kt westerly 500 mb flow will overspread southeast Quebec into Maine Sunday afternoon with the overhead passage of a mid-level impulse. Surface lee troughing over Maine will serve as an impetus for thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon, when surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/upper 60s F will boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Modestly curved, sizeable low-level hodographs suggest that multicells and supercells will be the main storm mode, possibly accompanied by damaging gusts. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Low-level upslope flow will encourage the northwestward advection of 60s F surface dewpoints into the higher terrain of the High Plains Sunday afternoon, beneath 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Moderate to strong instability will manifest, with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain, amid straight hodographs, contributing to splitting supercell potential. By evening, the southeasterly surface flow will be overspread by a strengthening southerly low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to westerly in the 700-500 mb layer. This directional shear will support curved low-level hodographs with continued supercell potential, before storms merge into an MCS by evening. While in the supercell phase, a few instances of severe hail (perhaps an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail) are possible, along with severe gusts and perhaps a tornado. By the time storms merge into an MCS, severe gusts will become the primary threat, and a few gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible. Higher severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a longer-lived, severe-wind producing MCS developing. Farther south into the southern High Plains, storm coverage should be relatively less, with multicells becoming outflow dominant more quickly given weaker vertical wind shear compared to the central High Plains. Nonetheless, an instance or two of hail is possible, along with severe gusts, especially with multicellular cold-pool mergers. ...Coastal Carolinas... A tropical storm is forecast to make landfall along the Carolina coastline at the start of the Day 2 period/12Z Sunday (please see the National Hurricane Center's advisories for more information on the progression of Tropical Depression 3). A deeply moist troposphere will accompany the land-falling TC, with MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range. Nonetheless, the vertical wind fields associated with this land-falling tropical storm are expected to quickly weaken, along with vertical wind shear. As such, while the risk for a brief tornado is technically non-zero, confidence in any robust tornado coverage is too low for the introduction of 2 percent or greater tornado probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow will become established over the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse the zonal flow through the day tomorrow (Sunday). The best chance for strong storms will be associated with mid-level impulses impinging on the High Plains and New England Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture and associated instability will precede the impulses, that combined with adequate vertical wind shear, will support storm organization, some of which could be severe. ...Maine... A belt of 50 kt westerly 500 mb flow will overspread southeast Quebec into Maine Sunday afternoon with the overhead passage of a mid-level impulse. Surface lee troughing over Maine will serve as an impetus for thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon, when surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/upper 60s F will boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Modestly curved, sizeable low-level hodographs suggest that multicells and supercells will be the main storm mode, possibly accompanied by damaging gusts. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Low-level upslope flow will encourage the northwestward advection of 60s F surface dewpoints into the higher terrain of the High Plains Sunday afternoon, beneath 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Moderate to strong instability will manifest, with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain, amid straight hodographs, contributing to splitting supercell potential. By evening, the southeasterly surface flow will be overspread by a strengthening southerly low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to westerly in the 700-500 mb layer. This directional shear will support curved low-level hodographs with continued supercell potential, before storms merge into an MCS by evening. While in the supercell phase, a few instances of severe hail (perhaps an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail) are possible, along with severe gusts and perhaps a tornado. By the time storms merge into an MCS, severe gusts will become the primary threat, and a few gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible. Higher severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a longer-lived, severe-wind producing MCS developing. Farther south into the southern High Plains, storm coverage should be relatively less, with multicells becoming outflow dominant more quickly given weaker vertical wind shear compared to the central High Plains. Nonetheless, an instance or two of hail is possible, along with severe gusts, especially with multicellular cold-pool mergers. ...Coastal Carolinas... A tropical storm is forecast to make landfall along the Carolina coastline at the start of the Day 2 period/12Z Sunday (please see the National Hurricane Center's advisories for more information on the progression of Tropical Depression 3). A deeply moist troposphere will accompany the land-falling TC, with MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range. Nonetheless, the vertical wind fields associated with this land-falling tropical storm are expected to quickly weaken, along with vertical wind shear. As such, while the risk for a brief tornado is technically non-zero, confidence in any robust tornado coverage is too low for the introduction of 2 percent or greater tornado probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow will become established over the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse the zonal flow through the day tomorrow (Sunday). The best chance for strong storms will be associated with mid-level impulses impinging on the High Plains and New England Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture and associated instability will precede the impulses, that combined with adequate vertical wind shear, will support storm organization, some of which could be severe. ...Maine... A belt of 50 kt westerly 500 mb flow will overspread southeast Quebec into Maine Sunday afternoon with the overhead passage of a mid-level impulse. Surface lee troughing over Maine will serve as an impetus for thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon, when surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/upper 60s F will boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Modestly curved, sizeable low-level hodographs suggest that multicells and supercells will be the main storm mode, possibly accompanied by damaging gusts. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Low-level upslope flow will encourage the northwestward advection of 60s F surface dewpoints into the higher terrain of the High Plains Sunday afternoon, beneath 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Moderate to strong instability will manifest, with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain, amid straight hodographs, contributing to splitting supercell potential. By evening, the southeasterly surface flow will be overspread by a strengthening southerly low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to westerly in the 700-500 mb layer. This directional shear will support curved low-level hodographs with continued supercell potential, before storms merge into an MCS by evening. While in the supercell phase, a few instances of severe hail (perhaps an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail) are possible, along with severe gusts and perhaps a tornado. By the time storms merge into an MCS, severe gusts will become the primary threat, and a few gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible. Higher severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a longer-lived, severe-wind producing MCS developing. Farther south into the southern High Plains, storm coverage should be relatively less, with multicells becoming outflow dominant more quickly given weaker vertical wind shear compared to the central High Plains. Nonetheless, an instance or two of hail is possible, along with severe gusts, especially with multicellular cold-pool mergers. ...Coastal Carolinas... A tropical storm is forecast to make landfall along the Carolina coastline at the start of the Day 2 period/12Z Sunday (please see the National Hurricane Center's advisories for more information on the progression of Tropical Depression 3). A deeply moist troposphere will accompany the land-falling TC, with MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range. Nonetheless, the vertical wind fields associated with this land-falling tropical storm are expected to quickly weaken, along with vertical wind shear. As such, while the risk for a brief tornado is technically non-zero, confidence in any robust tornado coverage is too low for the introduction of 2 percent or greater tornado probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow will become established over the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse the zonal flow through the day tomorrow (Sunday). The best chance for strong storms will be associated with mid-level impulses impinging on the High Plains and New England Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture and associated instability will precede the impulses, that combined with adequate vertical wind shear, will support storm organization, some of which could be severe. ...Maine... A belt of 50 kt westerly 500 mb flow will overspread southeast Quebec into Maine Sunday afternoon with the overhead passage of a mid-level impulse. Surface lee troughing over Maine will serve as an impetus for thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon, when surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/upper 60s F will boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Modestly curved, sizeable low-level hodographs suggest that multicells and supercells will be the main storm mode, possibly accompanied by damaging gusts. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Low-level upslope flow will encourage the northwestward advection of 60s F surface dewpoints into the higher terrain of the High Plains Sunday afternoon, beneath 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Moderate to strong instability will manifest, with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain, amid straight hodographs, contributing to splitting supercell potential. By evening, the southeasterly surface flow will be overspread by a strengthening southerly low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to westerly in the 700-500 mb layer. This directional shear will support curved low-level hodographs with continued supercell potential, before storms merge into an MCS by evening. While in the supercell phase, a few instances of severe hail (perhaps an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail) are possible, along with severe gusts and perhaps a tornado. By the time storms merge into an MCS, severe gusts will become the primary threat, and a few gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible. Higher severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a longer-lived, severe-wind producing MCS developing. Farther south into the southern High Plains, storm coverage should be relatively less, with multicells becoming outflow dominant more quickly given weaker vertical wind shear compared to the central High Plains. Nonetheless, an instance or two of hail is possible, along with severe gusts, especially with multicellular cold-pool mergers. ...Coastal Carolinas... A tropical storm is forecast to make landfall along the Carolina coastline at the start of the Day 2 period/12Z Sunday (please see the National Hurricane Center's advisories for more information on the progression of Tropical Depression 3). A deeply moist troposphere will accompany the land-falling TC, with MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range. Nonetheless, the vertical wind fields associated with this land-falling tropical storm are expected to quickly weaken, along with vertical wind shear. As such, while the risk for a brief tornado is technically non-zero, confidence in any robust tornado coverage is too low for the introduction of 2 percent or greater tornado probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050555
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a trough
of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 05:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 03:21:51 GMT

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 463 WTNT33 KNHC 050546 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.8W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.8 West. The depression has been nearly stationary tonight, but a slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a motion toward the north by the end of the day, and then northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure as measured by a recent ship observation near the center is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late today or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Three was located near 30.6, -78.8 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 05:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 03:21:51 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Three, located offshore of the coast of the southeastern
United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 03:21:51 GMT