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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Central High Plains... A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX, but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 4 18:38:02 UTC 2025.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041706
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern and southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of
this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more