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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 358 WTNT43 KNHC 050235 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite trends. The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, consistent with the latest guidance. The global models generally indicate that the current shear should lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit significant development, as well as the current disheveled structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows suit, near the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 050234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 21(22) 23(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression has been nearly stationary tonight. A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 the center of Three was located near 30.6, -78.9 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 912 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting some cold pool organization. As these storms continue spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information. ...Central High Plains... A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS -- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC 00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting some cold pool organization. As these storms continue spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information. ...Central High Plains... A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS -- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC 00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting some cold pool organization. As these storms continue spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information. ...Central High Plains... A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS -- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC 00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2025 Read more

MD 1565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050031Z - 050200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multicells and weak supercells may produce large hail and damaging gusts across portions of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into multicell clusters with a weak supercell just east of the Kansas/Colorado border. With surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s F in the region, these storms are in a relative maximum in instability with 2100 J/kg MLCAPE per the 00Z DDC RAOB. The VAD wind profile and 00Z RAOB from DDC also shows some low-level flow with 30 kt southerlies at 1 km AGL. With the ongoing supercell and any other transient supercells that can develop in the strong thermodynamic environment, some severe hail is possible. With time, additional clustering of cold pools may occur, and storms may transition to a wind damage threat, though diurnally increasing inhibition may limit the longevity of any severe threat as sunset approaches. Due to the temporally limited nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36850041 36880152 37130195 37540200 38410200 38690188 39140077 39320002 38909912 37349946 36850041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW VVV TO 25 WNW BJI TO 45 NNE ELO. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-029-035-051-057-061-075-087-111-137- 155-159-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA LAKE MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW VVV TO 25 WNW BJI TO 45 NNE ELO. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-029-035-051-057-061-075-087-111-137- 155-159-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA LAKE MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 041900Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon along a cold front arcing across northern MN, eastern ND, and north-central SD. Strong buoyancy is in place ahead of this front, fostering the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is modest across much of the area, which could limit storm organization and promote a quick transition to a mostly linear mode. The only exception is across north-central/northeast MN where vertical shear should remain strong enough to support stronger, more organized storm structures. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but isolated large to very large hail is also possible, particularly over north-central/northeast MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Jamestown ND to 25 miles north northeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 042209Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486 this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and wind remain possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042249Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and marginally severe hail are possible this evening across portions of eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough across the High Plains has triggered storms across the region. These storms have moved off of the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado eastward onto the Plains. Relatively weak flow aloft means convection has organized into multicell clusters and line segments in an environment with a modestly dry boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates. All these factors mean these storms have a risk for severe gusts, particularly with the more intense clusters of storms. Some marginally severe hail is also possible, but the weak deep-layer shear may limit the hail threat. Due to the sparse coverage of convection, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39850300 40170376 40810412 41560466 42390541 43690573 44310486 44110356 43050210 42360139 41470128 40640149 40250177 40030209 39850300 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042249Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and marginally severe hail are possible this evening across portions of eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough across the High Plains has triggered storms across the region. These storms have moved off of the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado eastward onto the Plains. Relatively weak flow aloft means convection has organized into multicell clusters and line segments in an environment with a modestly dry boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates. All these factors mean these storms have a risk for severe gusts, particularly with the more intense clusters of storms. Some marginally severe hail is also possible, but the weak deep-layer shear may limit the hail threat. Due to the sparse coverage of convection, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39850300 40170376 40810412 41560466 42390541 43690573 44310486 44110356 43050210 42360139 41470128 40640149 40250177 40030209 39850300 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 042209Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486 this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and wind remain possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ABR TO 15 NE FAR TO 15 ENE TVF. ..SPC..07/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-075-077- 087-107-111-113-119-125-137-155-159-167-050040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ST. LOUIS TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC077-050040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 041900Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon along a cold front arcing across northern MN, eastern ND, and north-central SD. Strong buoyancy is in place ahead of this front, fostering the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is modest across much of the area, which could limit storm organization and promote a quick transition to a mostly linear mode. The only exception is across north-central/northeast MN where vertical shear should remain strong enough to support stronger, more organized storm structures. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but isolated large to very large hail is also possible, particularly over north-central/northeast MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Jamestown ND to 25 miles north northeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more