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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

Trees in Fergus Falls were stressed due to drought. Needle blight can affect evergreens during drought. Snow typically covers and protects tree roots, which are shallow and sensitive to cold temperatures, but snow has been below normal this winter. Fergus Falls Daily Journal (Minn.), Feb 22, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more