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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS amid a progressive upper-air pattern this week into early next week. By mid-week, low-level moisture will return to the eastern one-third of the U.S., promoting multiple chances for appreciable rainfall amid cool, moist conditions. Meanwhile appreciable precipitation accumulations are possible throughout the rest of the CONUS, with the exception of the Northern Plains, which will experience daytime high temperatures around or below freezing. Cool and/or moist conditions, and the lack of fuels that are robustly receptive to wildfire-spread potential, should limit wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS for the extended period. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry downslope flow is possible across far southeastern Montana into western South Dakota, where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. However, overall cool conditions and the lack of a more intense, widespread surface wind field should limit significant wildfire-spread potential. Likewise, dry breezy northwesterly surface flow is possible across parts of the Southeast tomorrow, but recent rainfall should limit wildfire concerns here as well. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will deamplify as it continues eastward across the Rockies. Upstream, a pronounced midlevel trough will approach the California coast. This evolution will lead to a weakening of the offshore pressure gradient over southern California, with weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more