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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day after the OH Valley trough went through. At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the day. Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day after the OH Valley trough went through. At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the day. Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day after the OH Valley trough went through. At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the day. Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day after the OH Valley trough went through. At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the day. Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, including potential for a few severe storms, are forecast over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a moderately strong southwest flow regime will persist from the southern Plains to the OH Valley, with another shortwave trough moving across TX and OK during the day. This wave will have little if any instability to interact as it will arrive only a day after the OH Valley trough went through. At the surface, a front will be near the TX Coast, extending northeastward as a warm front across parts of LA/MS/AL during the day. Scattered storms may be ongoing across LA and MS and AL early in the day, with increasing chances in the MS/AL area in association with the warm front and with the air of heating. Uncertainty exists as to the extend of destabilization, but 50 kt deep-layer effective shear as well as 30-40 kt mean boundary-layer winds will conditionally favor a few damaging gusts, especially where pockets of heating can occur. Low-level shear will likely be maximized over parts of AL and points northeast, with perhaps an overlapping area of supercell potential. However, potential for a cooler air mass where low-level shear is strongest precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more