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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more