Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more