Aggregator

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 29 22:11:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 29 22:11:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more