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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast. The remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the California coast. Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band of frontal convection with some lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/29/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 28 22:06:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 28 22:06:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more