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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...South Carolina and vicinity... A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that region. Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong deep-layer shear. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds. Therefore have added a MRGL risk area to this region. ..Hart.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South this evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/22/2024 Read more