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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will continue on Sunday, with a large upper trough affecting the central and eastern states, and high pressure maintaining stable conditions over land. Two upper troughs will phase over the upper to middle MS Valley and move in tandem across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic through Monday morning. Offshore surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico, and otherwise weak winds over FL will preclude much destabilization. Forecast soundings over FL indicate poor lapse rates aloft, which when combined with minimal lift, should result in very little deep convection. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will result in dry conditions from the Great Basin to the West Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will continue on Sunday, with a large upper trough affecting the central and eastern states, and high pressure maintaining stable conditions over land. Two upper troughs will phase over the upper to middle MS Valley and move in tandem across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic through Monday morning. Offshore surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico, and otherwise weak winds over FL will preclude much destabilization. Forecast soundings over FL indicate poor lapse rates aloft, which when combined with minimal lift, should result in very little deep convection. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will result in dry conditions from the Great Basin to the West Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will continue on Sunday, with a large upper trough affecting the central and eastern states, and high pressure maintaining stable conditions over land. Two upper troughs will phase over the upper to middle MS Valley and move in tandem across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic through Monday morning. Offshore surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico, and otherwise weak winds over FL will preclude much destabilization. Forecast soundings over FL indicate poor lapse rates aloft, which when combined with minimal lift, should result in very little deep convection. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will result in dry conditions from the Great Basin to the West Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will continue on Sunday, with a large upper trough affecting the central and eastern states, and high pressure maintaining stable conditions over land. Two upper troughs will phase over the upper to middle MS Valley and move in tandem across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic through Monday morning. Offshore surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico, and otherwise weak winds over FL will preclude much destabilization. Forecast soundings over FL indicate poor lapse rates aloft, which when combined with minimal lift, should result in very little deep convection. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will result in dry conditions from the Great Basin to the West Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Rockies will move into the Plains on Saturday, with a strong midlevel jet moving across the southern Plains and toward the lower MS and mid MO Valleys into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, another upper trough will dive south into the northern Plains late with an associated cold front. In general, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across the CONUS, with an existing surface ridge from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains. Easterly surface winds will keep the more robust low-level moisture and instability over the Gulf of Mexico, with the only unstable land areas being far southern FL and perhaps parts of coastal TX. In both cases, poor lapse rates aloft should preclude much thunderstorm activity. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Rockies will move into the Plains on Saturday, with a strong midlevel jet moving across the southern Plains and toward the lower MS and mid MO Valleys into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, another upper trough will dive south into the northern Plains late with an associated cold front. In general, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across the CONUS, with an existing surface ridge from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains. Easterly surface winds will keep the more robust low-level moisture and instability over the Gulf of Mexico, with the only unstable land areas being far southern FL and perhaps parts of coastal TX. In both cases, poor lapse rates aloft should preclude much thunderstorm activity. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Rockies will move into the Plains on Saturday, with a strong midlevel jet moving across the southern Plains and toward the lower MS and mid MO Valleys into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, another upper trough will dive south into the northern Plains late with an associated cold front. In general, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across the CONUS, with an existing surface ridge from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains. Easterly surface winds will keep the more robust low-level moisture and instability over the Gulf of Mexico, with the only unstable land areas being far southern FL and perhaps parts of coastal TX. In both cases, poor lapse rates aloft should preclude much thunderstorm activity. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity today. ...01z Update... Upper low is settling south across the Great Basin late this evening as a 500mb speed max translates southeast across CA toward central AZ. Seasonally cold midlevel temperatures will spread into the Four Corners region along the cool side of the jet such that lapse rates will steepen enough for weak buoyancy, especially during the afternoon. Forecast soundings support low-topped convection (possibly as deep as 5km AGL), and cloud-top temperatures will be adequately cold enough for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/24/2023 Read more