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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2287 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 251455Z - 251900Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate sleet and freezing rain appear probable through mid-afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates up to 0.1 in/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and mPING reports over the past hour are reporting a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain ongoing from the I-40 corridor in the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK. Despite temperatures well below freezing across the region, correlation coefficient data from KVNX suggests a melting layer remains in place at around 4 kft, or roughly at the 800 mb level. These observations lend credence to recent RAP forecast soundings, which suggest that this 1-2 C warm layer will remain in place through mid-afternoon. Other 12z guidance also suggests a mix of sleet and freezing rain will persist through at least early afternoon with some solutions hinting at periods of freezing rain accumulations up to 0.1 in/hour (though this will be conditional on realizing freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type, which remains uncertain based on latest obs). Regardless, the approach of the main synoptic wave and attendant upper jet, coupled with a persistent warm advection regime at around 850-800 mb, should favor additional wintry precip through the afternoon. 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km could support weak (< 50 J/kg) MUCAPE, resulting in embedded areas of moderate freezing rain/sleet rates. ..Moore.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35490104 35680079 37189856 37289827 37329799 37319767 37179751 36829747 36559768 35439928 35029995 34890025 34870059 34950090 35230111 35490104 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon. There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area with a 2% tornado probability. ..Grams.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across the northwest Gulf coast. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period. There will be weak low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated convection from roughly 08-12z. Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the central CONUS, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will gradually tighten over portions of southern California. Breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH could lead to periods of locally elevated fire-weather conditions (particularly over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties). However, slightly cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally mitigate the risk. Elsewhere, cold and/or moist surface conditions should limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more