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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, centered mostly over the midwestern states of northern Missouri/Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Midwest... Upper low is currently located over southeast CO, and will soon begin ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance into the central Plains. By 18z this feature should advance into eastern NE as 90kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, across northern OK, into northwestern MO. In response to this dynamic system, strong LLJ will focus across the eastern Plains early then shift into the mid/upper MS Valley by 18z. Low-level warm advection is expected to prove instrumental in early-day convection, in association with the LLJ. This activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, focused over the mid-MO Valley. Subsequent movement/development is expected downstream across IA/southern MN as the warm conveyor shifts east. While strong shear will support this convection, the primary concern will be with secondary development in association with a pronounced mid-level dry slot. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will steepen to near 9 C/km across southeast NE/northeast KS by 18z. Leading edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume will advance across western IA, immediately ahead of the surface low. As a result, boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial buoyancy and some areas may experience MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. Surface-based parcels are forecast to be uninhibited by 17-18z across western IA. Current thinking is scattered convection should develop within this zone of destabilization then spread northeast. Surface warm front is expected to serve as a northern limit to surface-based convection, along with any appreciable tornado risk. Large hail can be expected with supercells, and favorable shear will support the potential for tornadoes, a few potentially strong. This activity will spread across IA/extreme northern MO into northwestern IL during the evening. Farther south into the Ozarks, severe threat is much more conditional. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates and at least weak inhibition through much of the period. It's not real clear how robust updrafts will be, despite the strong shear, given the marginal lapse-rate environment. Will maintain SLGT Risk into this portion of the lower MS Valley but convection may struggle much of the period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/16/2024 Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CSM TO 25 SW DDC TO 30 SSW BBW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-065-083-089-097-105-123-135- 137-141-145-147-151-159-163-165-167-183-185-195-160640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAHAM HODGEMAN JEWELL KIOWA LINCOLN MITCHELL NESS NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SMITH STAFFORD TREGO NEC001-019-047-061-065-073-079-083-099-137-181-160640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO DAWSON Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-081-083- 089-097-101-105-119-123-135-137-141-145-147-151-159-163-165-167- 175-179-183-185-195-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN JEWELL KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL NESS NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD TREGO NEC001-019-047-061-065-073-079-083-099-137-181-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WW 112 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-063-071-075-091-103-111-113-115-117-149- 161-171-160500- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more