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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CSM TO DDC TO 20 E HLC TO 40 SE LBF. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-083-089-097-105-123-141-145- 147-151-159-163-165-167-183-185-160740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD HODGEMAN JEWELL KIOWA LINCOLN MITCHELL OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SMITH STAFFORD NEC001-019-047-061-073-079-083-099-137-181-160740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN GOSPER HALL HARLAN KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER Read more

MD 0451 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 113... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central Kansas and adjacent south central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 113... Valid 160429Z - 160630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...An increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes appears probable with an intensifying line of thunderstorms across western into central Kansas and adjacent south central Nebraska through 1-2 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...A strong cyclonic upper jet streak continues to nose across the southern Rockies through the south central high plains, with latest Rapid Refresh suggesting speeds now in the process of strengthening in excess of 80 to 90+ kt across the Texas Panhandle through northwestern Oklahoma. Strongest mid-level cooling in the exit region of this feature (including 500 mb temperatures decreasing to -20 to -22c) is forecast to overspread the stalling dryline across western Kansas through 05-07Z, contributing to weakening of lingering mid-level inhibition, further destabilization and more rapid thunderstorm intensification. Persistence of the ongoing isolated supercell now approaching the Hayes/Russell vicinity, within the narrow corridor of moderate potential instability ahead of the dryline, remains unclear, but further intensification of the linear structure along the dryline and merging cold fronts now west of Hill City into areas east of Garden City seems probable. Several low-level cyclonic meso circulations have already been noted in the presence of enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath a 50-60 kt southerly 850 mb jet. With further weakening of inhibition and release of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, rapid thunderstorm intensification may be accompanied by an increasing risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts within the next few hours. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38790023 40399968 40359814 38919841 37509910 37190019 37730048 38790023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by 12Z Thursday over MN. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday. ...Ohio Valley to Lower MI... The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily with little hail potential. A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours, with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700 mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River. ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late... As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast. While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN, allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail. Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear, low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by 12Z Thursday over MN. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday. ...Ohio Valley to Lower MI... The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily with little hail potential. A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours, with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700 mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River. ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late... As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast. While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN, allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail. Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear, low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by 12Z Thursday over MN. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday. ...Ohio Valley to Lower MI... The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily with little hail potential. A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours, with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700 mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River. ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late... As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast. While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN, allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail. Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear, low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by 12Z Thursday over MN. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday. ...Ohio Valley to Lower MI... The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily with little hail potential. A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours, with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700 mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River. ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late... As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast. While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN, allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail. Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear, low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more