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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0116 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 16 14:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF IA INTO NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of IA into northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161350Z - 161445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing across far eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri will likely continue to shift northeast through the morning. Severe potential may increase gradually through the morning downstream across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Area being monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms tracking northeast across eastern KS/northwest MO ahead of a surface cold front are expected to continue through the morning. The downstream airmass remains at least weakly capped given cloud cover and limited heating. Ongoing activity is likely sub-severe at this point, though may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph given recent obs of 41 kt at STJ and 39 kt at EVU. With time and additional destabilization, convection may intensify and become severe, though the northern extent of convection will also be outpacing higher-quality moisture/warmer temperatures as storms lift northeast into IA (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Additional convection is expected to develop with southward extent into northern MO. This area is currently experiencing somewhat better heating through broken cloudiness. This may allow for greater destabilization given better boundary-layer moisture. The overall expectation is that a line of storms will develop north to south across IA into northern MO through the morning. This activity will have potential to produce severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Additional severe potential may develop later this afternoon in the wake of this initial morning activity if airmass recovery can occur. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39509570 41579564 42179444 42249224 41719159 40309139 39009163 38689181 38489220 38319326 38539450 39019524 39379568 39509570 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more

MD 0456 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 114...115... FOR EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA...FAR WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS...southeast NE...southwest IA...far western MO Concerning...Tornado Watch 114...115... Valid 161100Z - 161300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 114, 115 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible through mid-morning within WWs 114-115, with the greatest tornado threat over east-central KS. Very isolated severe may also spread east of the watches into parts of southwest IA and far western MO. DISCUSSION...Over eastern KS, the only well-developed supercell that earlier produced a tornado in Greenwood County, KS appeared to have weaken for a period before restrengthening again as other cells around it diminished. Given the history of this supercell, another tornadogenesis cycle appears to be underway over east-central KS given the mid 60s surface dew points and relative lack of potentially destructive interference amid 0-1 km shear of 40-45 kts. How long this process can last is uncertain given somewhat less favorable thermodynamics downstream over the MO River. But should a long-track supercell persist, it is plausible that a small additional watch may be needed. Across NE, the overall severe threat has become more nebulous after the decay of the severe-producing QLCS over north-central KS/south-central NE earlier this morning. Remnant deep convection is still ongoing across parts of eastern NE with renewed development just southeast of the 990-mb surface cyclone in south-central NE. Instability within much of this portion of the warm sector appears to be subsiding, especially with pervasive convection across eastern KS. Still, isolated severe wind gusts, a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail will remain possible for a few more hours. ..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 41699681 41879545 40739481 39229458 38299448 37819538 37539639 37819683 38229699 39279699 40949739 41699681 Read more

WW 0115 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW EMP TO 40 SSW FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-013-031-045-059-073-085-087-111-139-177-197-207- 161340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BROWN COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more