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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0452 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...Northern OK and southeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160622Z - 160715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop east-northeast across parts of northern OK into southeast KS through the pre-dawn hours. Large hail appears to be the most likely hazard. DISCUSSION...Elevated storms gradually deepened into north-central OK for about an hour, but appeared to plateau over the past 15 minutes. This activity seems to be forced by lower-level warm theta-e advection (greater mean mixing ratios sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding relative to OUN) and mid-level height falls downstream of the vigorous shortwave trough over southeast CO. Elevated buoyancy and favorable southwesterly speed shear will support a threat for at least marginally severe hail if cells can sustain mid-level rotation. Primary concern is whether this activity might further deepen and acquire low-level rotation. MLCIN at present appears sufficiently robust to likely mitigate that potential in the near-term. But with further moistening from the south-southwest coupled with adequate cooling around 700 mb, there is conditional potential for a storm or two to become more surface-based in character. While the probability of this appears low, should it occur, all hazards would be possible. ..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36749831 37629781 37859686 37809605 37629565 37219536 36529565 36199620 35839760 35919817 36119847 36749831 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more