Aggregator

WW 113 TORNADO KS NE OK TX 160105Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Kansas South central Nebraska Northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle The northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening along a dryline from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas, with an environment that will become more favorable for tornadic supercells after dark. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible with the more discrete/persistent supercells, along with very large hail up to 2.5-3 inches in diameter. Some clustering of storms will be possible later tonight, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Kearney NE to 105 miles south of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...WW 111...WW 112... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

WW 0114 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0114 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

A Sharp County cattle farmer felt that he was behind in hay production with grasses that were planted this winter not growing. Row crop growers in northeast Arkansas have found the dry weather of the past few weeks to be helpful and letting them get crops planted early. With seeds in the ground, rain was needed to get them to germinate. KAIT 8 (Jonesboro, Ark.), April 15, 2024

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more