Aggregator

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E FST TO 40 S MAF TO 20 SSE MAF TO 5 NE MAF TO 20 NNE MAF TO 45 NE BGS. ..BENTLEY..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-227-235-267-307-317-319- 327-329-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-431-435-441-451-461- 170140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MARTIN MASON MENARD MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 250 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 162000Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas into the Edwards Plateau * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon/evening while spreading from southeast New Mexico into west Texas and the Edwards Plateau. The main threats will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter with the more discrete supercells, while severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will be possible as storms grow upscale into one or more line segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 60 miles northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the lower MS Valley this evening. There is some consideration for a new watch across this region later this evening. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection is focused across the lower MS Valley early this evening. An expansive MCS has evolved across east TX/northern LA and the leading edge of this activity is slowly sagging south, but spreading/developing east of ww249. Later this evening, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the northwestern Gulf Basin into LA, and this will encourage convective overturning of a very moist/buoyant air mass south of the MCS. Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity but damaging winds may be the primary risk, especially if line segments are able to evolve. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31249146 30218916 29088985 30129182 31249146 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves
little. By this weekend, the low is forecast to merge with another
system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE FST TO 40 ESE INK TO 30 WNW MAF TO 20 WSW LBB. ..BENTLEY..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-095-103-105-115-135-151-165-169-173- 227-235-267-305-307-317-319-327-329-335-353-383-399-411-413-415- 431-435-441-445-451-461-170040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION KIMBLE LYNN MCCULLOCH MARTIN MASON MENARD MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 250 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 162000Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas into the Edwards Plateau * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon/evening while spreading from southeast New Mexico into west Texas and the Edwards Plateau. The main threats will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter with the more discrete supercells, while severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will be possible as storms grow upscale into one or more line segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 60 miles northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0805 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250... Valid 162155Z - 162330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for primarily large hail to continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have formed atop the outflow/composite front across eastern New Mexico/West Texas. These storms have shown some supercell structures but have not been overly organized or robust thus far. This is likely due to only moderate MUCAPE (1000 to 1500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear. While fixed-layer 0-6 shear would appear favorable, the inflow base on these storms is likely around 2km. 2-8km shear is only around 25 to 30 knots (per MAF VWP). This likely explains some of the somewhat sporadically organized nature of the convection. The storms farther south and east, closer to the better elevated instability (and 30-35 knots of effective shear per SJT VWP), are more robust and will likely pose the greatest large and potentially very large hail through the evening. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31390380 32680360 33250285 32990048 31610036 30920145 31030230 31390380 Read more

MD 0806 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 249... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 249... Valid 162156Z - 162330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 249 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread southeast across ww249 this evening. Damaging squall line may ultimately evolve over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Expansive MCS has evolved over much of central/east TX late this afternoon. Leading edge of this activity exhibits numerous robust updrafts, extending from ACP-JAS-CLL-3T5. MESH data suggests marginally severe hail is likely observed with the strongest cores, but convective outflow is likely undercutting much of this activity. As the cold pool continues to expand, there is reason to believe one or more bow-type surges could evolve then propagate across the upper TX Coastal Plain toward the lower Sabine River Valley. Latest radar data suggests a developing bow is beginning to accelerate into the northwestern portions of ww249. This squall line may grow upscale and become more efficient in producing damaging winds as it progresses across a very warm/moist air mass immediately downstream. ..Darrow.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30969684 30969189 29389189 29369683 30969684 Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 30 S CLL TO 30 NNE CLL. ..SPC..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-162340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC015-039-041-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-313-339- 351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-162340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 30 S CLL TO 30 NNE CLL. ..SPC..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-162340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC015-039-041-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-313-339- 351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-162340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 249 TORNADO LA TX CW 161940Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward through early tonight along a composite outflow boundary sagging southward across east Texas. The potential for supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will increase with new storm development south of the outflow. Otherwise, embedded supercells and bowing segments will pose a threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph, as well as a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of College Station TX to 5 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0804 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTH EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...northern Arkansas...south eastern Missouri...southern Illinois...far western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162025Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail risk through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon and evening across portions of the Ozarks to the middle Mississippi Valley. A few more organized clusters and a supercell or two may be possible as forcing increases from a mid-level speed max moves across this region later in the evening amid MLCAPE increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A few instances of severe hail and damaging wind will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed, as this threat will remain isolated. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36659306 37139222 37939057 38098894 37728808 36998802 36698829 36228917 35639031 35439115 35309232 35389291 35669359 36319334 36659306 Read more

MD 0803 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0803 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161858Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Threat of large hail and damaging wind to continue through the afternoon/evening. A watch will be possible in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm and supercell activity has increased across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Reports of hail up to 1.75" have been noted with storms near Synder, TX. Visible satellite shows continued development of cumulus across this region, with additional thunderstorm development expected through the afternoon. The environment in this region is characterized by MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and 40-45 kts of deep layer shear. Forecast soundings across this region depict steep lapse rates throughout the profile. The VAD profile from MAF shows a largely linear and elongated hodograph. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to 80s with dew points in the upper 50s. Given these parameters, further development through the afternoon/evening will likely be capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A watch may be needed to encompass this threat this afternoon. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30660153 30620118 31510067 32020038 32740005 33060007 33250081 33340115 33530194 33760374 33850507 33530522 33320530 32750537 31950494 31190277 31150267 30660153 Read more

MD 0802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161812Z - 162045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop after 19Z from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. Large hail as well as damaging gusts will be likely, and a brief tornado will be possible as well. DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from central into northeast TX continues to shift east/southeast, with prominent outflow. Although the air mass ahead of this line continues to gradually destabilize due to heating, a surge of rich boundary layer moisture is moving in from the southwest, and this will provide a greater contribution. GPS PWAT values will increase rapidly by over 0.50" as the mid to upper 70s F dewpoints arrive. Indicative of this robust moisture are cells forming within the warm advection zone just off the LA Coast. Therefore, as the primary line of storms moves in from the northwest, strengthening may occur especially where the line intersects the warm front, with additional cells forming along the length of the warm front. Damaging hail and wind will be likely. Low-level shear along the warm front may support a brief tornado or two as well, with 0-1 SRH values above 100 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Jewell.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 29719336 29609406 29229485 29779632 30349664 30739639 31319562 31499525 31389406 31189334 30549240 29749104 29339081 29089100 29359182 29519244 29719336 Read more

Continuing drought conditions led a farmer in Bremer County, Iowa to shift his planting from about two-thirds corn and one-third soybeans to roughly half corn and half soybeans. KMUW Wichita 89.1 (Kan.), May 13, 2024