Aggregator

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEW TO 10 E CEW TO 15 SSE DHN TO 20 NNE MGR TO 30 S VDI. ..DEAN..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC059-063-131-133-180140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC019-027-071-075-087-131-173-185-253-275-180140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY LANIER LOWNDES SEMINOLE THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 254 TORNADO AL FL GA 172000Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Northern Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a surface boundary and track eastward across the watch area. Locally severe storms are expected, with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Dothan AL to 30 miles east northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-005-013-023-039-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129- 180140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BAY CALHOUN COLUMBIA GADSDEN HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-025-039-049-065-101-299-180140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS WARE AMZ450-180140- CW Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-005-013-023-039-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129- 180140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BAY CALHOUN COLUMBIA GADSDEN HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-025-039-049-065-101-299-180140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS WARE AMZ450-180140- CW Read more

862
ABPZ20 KNHC 172313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development of this system as the low remains nearly stationary
during the next day or so. By late this weekend, the low is forecast
to interact or merge with another system to its east, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue several hundred
miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico in association
with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more