Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK. This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in the day. If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline by late afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens through the day. Any supercells that persist into late afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards potentially lasting into late evening. ...Great Lakes vicinity... Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads northeast from the Plains. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more