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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

Recent drought in California has left water users still conserving and using less water than prior to the drought. Water sales were historically low during the drought when restrictions on water use were mandatory. Less revenue from water sales, combined with higher labor and financing costs led the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California to raise the water rate for its customers from San Diego through Ventura County in early April. Ventura County Star (Camarillo, Calif.), April 25, 2024

The water allocation for irrigators in the Klamath Basin is 35% below the estimated need even though precipitation was normal for the season. The 2024 allocation will be 230,000 acre-feet from Upper Klamath Lake. Some farmers will be without surface water for a fifth consecutive year. Western Farm Press (Minneapolis, Minn.), April 24, 2024

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BGS TO 45 SSE LBB TO 40 E PVW. ..GOSS..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC057-065-141-260640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARMON JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-033-075-101-107-125-151-155-165-169-197-207-227-253- 263-269-275-335-345-353-415-433-441-447-485-487-260640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FISHER FOARD GAINES GARZA HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT KING KNOX MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be likely today from parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa, southward into eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with some potentially strong, very large hail over two inches in diameter, and wind damage. A more isolated severe threat will extend south-southwestward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex from late afternoon into the evening. ...Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Today Across Parts of The Lower To Mid Missouri Valley and Central Plains... ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains... A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward through the base of the system. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward across Nebraska. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, will be in place by midday across eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector by afternoon, with thunderstorms first developing in east-central Nebraska around midday. These storms are expected to move eastward across eastern Nebraska during the afternoon, as convective coverage gradually expands south-southeastward into eastern Kansas. The environment will be favorable for severe storms, with several clusters moving eastward from Nebraska into Iowa, and from Kansas into Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening. Several factors appear to be supportive of a significant tornado event today across eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The first is that a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet, associated with a negatively tilted trough, will become coupled with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet over a moist and unstable warm sector. A second factor is that a band of large-scale ascent will move over the warm sector this afternoon, as the capping inversion diminishes. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread over the warm sector, which combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable supercells with strong updrafts at relatively low-levels within the storms. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range along the western edge of the low-level jet, which will be favorable for strong tornadoes. A few tornadic supercells are expected, with the greatest potential from near Omaha eastward to near Des Moines and southward to south of the Kansas City Metro. Along this corridor, the more dominant supercell storms will also have a potential to produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind damage. The severe threat is expected to shift eastward across Iowa and Missouri during the mid to late evening, with an isolated severe threat continuing after midnight. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the south-central U.S., with a broad moist warm sector located from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. An MCS is expected to move across central and eastern Oklahoma during the morning, which will stabilize the airmass. However, instability is forecast to redevelop across Oklahoma by afternoon. Further south, strong instability is expected to develop across much of central and east Texas by afternoon, where MLCAPE should peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak across most of the southern Plains, the cap is expected to diminish and isolated thunderstorms appear likely to develop by late afternoon. A severe threat is expected to persist along and near the instability axis during the early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Saturday along and near the instability axis from southeast/south-central Oklahoma into north-central Texas have 0-6 km shear between 40 and 50 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates will become steepest in areas that heat up the most. The environment will likely be favorable for isolated supercells with large hail. By late afternoon, forecast soundings also have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity reaching 200 m2/s2 suggesting that an isolated tornado threat will be possible. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest across eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and western Arkansas, as the low-level jet ramps up in the early evening. Wind damage will also be possible with storms that develop. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be likely today from parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa, southward into eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with some potentially strong, very large hail over two inches in diameter, and wind damage. A more isolated severe threat will extend south-southwestward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex from late afternoon into the evening. ...Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Today Across Parts of The Lower To Mid Missouri Valley and Central Plains... ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains... A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward through the base of the system. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward across Nebraska. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, will be in place by midday across eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector by afternoon, with thunderstorms first developing in east-central Nebraska around midday. These storms are expected to move eastward across eastern Nebraska during the afternoon, as convective coverage gradually expands south-southeastward into eastern Kansas. The environment will be favorable for severe storms, with several clusters moving eastward from Nebraska into Iowa, and from Kansas into Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening. Several factors appear to be supportive of a significant tornado event today across eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The first is that a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet, associated with a negatively tilted trough, will become coupled with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet over a moist and unstable warm sector. A second factor is that a band of large-scale ascent will move over the warm sector this afternoon, as the capping inversion diminishes. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread over the warm sector, which combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable supercells with strong updrafts at relatively low-levels within the storms. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range along the western edge of the low-level jet, which will be favorable for strong tornadoes. A few tornadic supercells are expected, with the greatest potential from near Omaha eastward to near Des Moines and southward to south of the Kansas City Metro. Along this corridor, the more dominant supercell storms will also have a potential to produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind damage. The severe threat is expected to shift eastward across Iowa and Missouri during the mid to late evening, with an isolated severe threat continuing after midnight. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the south-central U.S., with a broad moist warm sector located from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. An MCS is expected to move across central and eastern Oklahoma during the morning, which will stabilize the airmass. However, instability is forecast to redevelop across Oklahoma by afternoon. Further south, strong instability is expected to develop across much of central and east Texas by afternoon, where MLCAPE should peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak across most of the southern Plains, the cap is expected to diminish and isolated thunderstorms appear likely to develop by late afternoon. A severe threat is expected to persist along and near the instability axis during the early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Saturday along and near the instability axis from southeast/south-central Oklahoma into north-central Texas have 0-6 km shear between 40 and 50 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates will become steepest in areas that heat up the most. The environment will likely be favorable for isolated supercells with large hail. By late afternoon, forecast soundings also have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity reaching 200 m2/s2 suggesting that an isolated tornado threat will be possible. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest across eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and western Arkansas, as the low-level jet ramps up in the early evening. Wind damage will also be possible with storms that develop. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/26/2024 Read more