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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0146 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0146 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more