Aggregator

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-045-047-049- 053-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-097-105-111-113-115-117-127-131- 139-143-145-149-151-155-159-161-167-169-173-177-185-191-197-201- 272240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS EDWARDS ELK ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE STAFFORD SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055- 057-065-067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-119-129-137-141-149- 151-153-272240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-272240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055- 057-065-067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-119-129-137-141-149- 151-153-272140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-272140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0542 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...much of western Kansas into southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271815Z - 272045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop this afternoon near the front from southeast Colorado into parts of western Kansas, with large hail the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest KS, with a dryline near the OK/TX Panhandle border. A prominent surface front stretches from southeast CO across west-central KS, with a few storms already near the central to northeast KS portion of the front. Substantial storms are ongoing from northwest OK into south-central KS near ICT, and this activity has produced outflow which is affecting destabilization over central KS currently. However, further heating will likely lead to sufficient instability to support a few severe storms capable of hail. Northeast surface winds north of the front will further aid deep-layer shear, and potentially support left-moving storms with hail potential. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 38689834 38409900 38160040 37670144 37320192 37130238 37300316 37980310 38500253 39150090 39649953 39639860 39309810 38689834 Read more

MD 0543 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 145...146... FOR NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northeast OK and southeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 145...146... Valid 271854Z - 272030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 145, 146 continues. SUMMARY...As severe storms in north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas spread east late this afternoon, an additional tornado watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The airmass ahead of severe storms in south-central KS and north-central OK continues to destabilize as surface temps have warmed in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of eastern OK into far southeast KS. While low-level shear within this part of the warm-moist sector is relatively modest per INX VWP data, it will strengthen based on upstream TLX data. A mix of discrete and semi-discrete supercells occasionally embedded within clusters should spread east-northeast through late afternoon. As this occurs, all severe hazards will be possible, some of which may be significant. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37789675 37989586 38109524 38159465 37499454 36419461 35639585 35269698 36329742 37079752 37789675 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more