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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

MD 0559 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 156...157... FOR NORTHWEST AR INTO NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...northwest AR into northeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 156...157... Valid 280911Z - 281015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 156, 157 continues. SUMMARY...Strong gusts remain possible across Tornado Watch 156 and 157 in the short term. Overall tornado/severe risk is expected to gradually wane with time/eastward extent the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The intensity of the QLCS slowly progressing east from northwest AR into north TX early this morning has gradually decreased over the past hour, especially north of the Red River. While some strong gusts remain possible, tornado potential is expected to wane over the next 1-2 hours due to weakening instability and less favorable deep-layer shear. Furthermore, radar data suggests outflow may be advancing ahead of the convection at least along some segments of the QLCS. While some strong winds may persist in the short term, downstream watches are not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36449320 35609336 34919370 33539450 32419550 31469662 31219720 31289807 31559841 31909839 33149706 34829552 35759478 36459456 36449320 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - Central and southern Plains... Extended-range guidance generally depicts a broad upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the western CONUS on Wednesday, though differences remain regarding the amplitude of this trough. Downstream of the trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture streaming northward along/east of a developing dryline and south of a northward-moving warm front. Moderate to strong buoyancy may develop across the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/east of the dryline and also near the warm front. While mid/upper-level flow is currently forecast to remain rather modest, deep-layer shear may be sufficient to support some organized convection. With most extended-range guidance depicting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening within a relatively favorable environment, a 15% area has been added for parts of the central/southern Plains, where confidence in an organized severe threat is currently highest. Some guidance suggests the threat could extend into parts of southwest and deep south TX, in advance of a low-amplitude subtropical shortwave trough, though uncertainty remains rather high regarding this potential. ...D5/Thursday - Central and southern Plains into the MS Valley... A continuation of severe potential is expected into Thursday across parts of the central/southern Plains and potentially into the mid/upper MS Valley, with moderate to locally strong instability expected again during the afternoon across the warm sector of a northeastward-moving cyclone. However, predictability begins to decrease at this forecast range regarding timing of a cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and potentially provide a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... A notable increase in spread amongst extended-range guidance is noted by D6/Friday into the weekend. In general, a cold front will likely continue moving southeastward before stalling across parts of southern Plains into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture and stronger instability may be maintained across parts of TX, but organized severe potential in that area remains very uncertain at this time. Read more

MD 0558 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154...155... FOR PORTIONS OF MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of MO into west-central IL Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155... Valid 280654Z - 280800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest severe potential is expected across southwest Missouri in the short term. Overall risk is diminishing with northward extent. DISCUSSION...Outflow associated with convection across central MO into west-central IL is outpacing convection over the past hour or two. This, coupled with increasing low-level inhibition/boundary-layer stabilization is largely limiting severe potential. As a result, Tornado Watch 154 will be cancelled early per collaboration with WFO LSX. Further southwest, a more mature/organized QLCS over northeast OK will spread into southwest MO. While weak low-level inhibition is present, stronger ascent and more favorable low-level shear may still support a tornado and damaging wind risk over the next couple of hours, especially across southern portions of Tornado Watch 155. ..Leitman.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36469452 36689488 37189497 37649484 38169413 38519299 38519220 39489099 39549039 39518976 39288954 38838961 38639023 37919157 36489280 36459363 36469452 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by a strong mid/upper-level jet. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... Low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a weak cold front Tuesday afternoon, as diurnal heating weakens MLCINH. The greatest coverage of storms and strongest deep-layer shear are expected from southern MN into parts of eastern NE and western IA, in closer proximity to stronger ascent attendant to the shortwave. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. Storm coverage and deep-layer shear will likely decrease with southward extent, though stronger instability into parts of KS/OK could support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in overlap of greater storm coverage and shear with more favorable instability. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more