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WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0564 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 158... FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...East TX...Northwest LA...Southern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 158... Valid 282313Z - 290015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread east of ww158 shortly. New tornado watch will likely be warranted immediately downstream. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection will continue across the lower MS Valley early this evening in association with LLJ that is focused from the lower Sabine River Valley into western AR. Deep convection that evolved upstream over central TX has propagated east as the LLJ has shifted downstream. Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved with the leading edge of this activity now surging into Harrison/Panola County region. Over the next few hours this complex will advance beyond the eastern border of ww158 and a new tornado watch will likely be issued soon to account for this risk. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30809593 33559391 33169223 31369321 30809593 Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 160 TORNADO AR LA TX 282340Z - 290700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Organized band of storms including supercells and line segments will move east across the Watch area this evening into the overnight. The risk for tornadoes, severe gusts, and large hail will be the hazards with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of El Dorado AR to 30 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0565 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 159... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwestern Arkansas...and Southwestern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 159... Valid 282350Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 159 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues in WW159. Corridor of more favorable surface winds may support risk of a tornado. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations indicate winds across northwestern Arkansas into southwestern Missouri are backing as convection approaches from the south and west. This southeasterly component has not handled well by recent RAP analysis data, which may indicate low-level shear is more favorable across this corridor than indicated in recent guidance. The VAD profile from KSRX (Fort Smith WSR-88D) shows around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. This area may be a focused zone of potential for a tornado in the short term. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35799375 35519434 35489468 35479497 35509544 35619566 35859568 36089554 36249541 36569509 36789472 36899431 36909392 36839371 36579365 36309362 36089367 35799375 Read more

MD 0564 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 158... FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...East TX...Northwest LA...Southern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 158... Valid 282313Z - 290015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread east of ww158 shortly. New tornado watch will likely be warranted immediately downstream. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection will continue across the lower MS Valley early this evening in association with LLJ that is focused from the lower Sabine River Valley into western AR. Deep convection that evolved upstream over central TX has propagated east as the LLJ has shifted downstream. Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved with the leading edge of this activity now surging into Harrison/Panola County region. Over the next few hours this complex will advance beyond the eastern border of ww158 and a new tornado watch will likely be issued soon to account for this risk. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30809593 33559391 33169223 31369321 30809593 Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 160 TORNADO AR LA TX 282340Z - 290700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Organized band of storms including supercells and line segments will move east across the Watch area this evening into the overnight. The risk for tornadoes, severe gusts, and large hail will be the hazards with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of El Dorado AR to 30 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 28 22:46:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 159 TORNADO AR MO OK 282215Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify into the early evening across eastern Oklahoma and eventually spread into southwest Missouri and western Arkansas later this evening. A few supercells are possible as storms mature this evening. Low-level shear and moist conditions in the low levels will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms. Large hail and damaging gusts are also possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Monett MO to 50 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Smith Read more

MD 0562 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO.
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern OK...western Arkansas and into far southeast KS and southwest MO. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282038Z - 282245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Weak showers may gradually deepen into clusters of strong to severe storms late this afternoon. Uncertainty remains high as it is unclear if the air mass can recover in the wake of earlier storms. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite data showed a few showers slowly deepening over parts of central and eastern OK and northeast TX. In the wake of the early day MCS lingering clouds have slowed diurnal heating with temperatures stubbornly remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Still, some clearing has emerged and 1.25-1.4 in precipitable water values show sufficient moisture for deep convection. Hi-res guidance shows these showers may gradually deepen into several clusters of thunderstorms across eastern OK over the next couple of hours as a subtle upper-level trough moves in from the west. With 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE potential available by 22-23z, a few stronger updrafts could emerge. 35-45 kt of effective shear would favor storm organization, though in the form of a mix of cellular and cluster elements. Damaging gusts and isolated hail appear to be the most likely threats should more robust storms develop. Still, a 30-40 kt LLJ should enlarge low-level hodographs near sunset to support the risk for a tornado or two. The primary uncertainty for this afternoon and evening is the coverage and intensity of storms that develop. While it remains unclear now, conditions are being monitored for a possible watch. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33509512 33829634 34159670 34809659 35959618 37379548 37639464 37599391 37259363 36909353 36269355 35059382 33799406 33509512 Read more

MD 0563 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 158... FOR A PART OF EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...a part of east-central TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 158... Valid 282047Z - 282145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...A few supercells should continue to pose a primary threat of tornadoes across a part of east-central Texas into early evening. DISCUSSION...The two initially sustained supercells in east-central TX both produced reportedly brief tornadoes earlier this hour. A third supercell is trying to intensify upshear of the middle one (in Robertson County), but appears displaced northwest of convective outflow from the lead storms. It is plausible that the middle of the trio will become the more dominant/longer-lasting of the supercells given its more east-northeastward movement and broader access to uninterrupted inflow emanating northward from southeast TX. While low-level shear is more modest with southwest extent, it will remain adequate for multiple tornadogenesis cycles into early evening. ..Grams.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31849593 32059526 31929488 31639483 31119532 30449662 30469712 30799725 30879724 31849593 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more