Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 158 TORNADO TX 281925Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify and spread slowly eastward across the watch area this afternoon. A few storms may become supercellular, posing a risk of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west of Victoria TX to 25 miles west northwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PART OF EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...a part of east-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281828Z - 282030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Redeveloping thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor in central Texas may intensify as they spread northeastward into a part of east Texas later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Regenerative thunderstorm development persists in parts of central TX across the outflow from an MCS that decayed this morning. Surface temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s within cloud breaks south and east of the large-scale outflow boundary arcing across east TX. This is yielding moderate buoyancy amid upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. With a favorable deep-layer wind profile (0-6km shear near 50 kts) per GRK VWP data, a couple supercells within an emerging cluster may develop. Overall convective mode will likely remain nebulous for the next few hours with uncertainty on whether a supercell can become sustained and track along the remnant outflow boundary. Should this occur, it would support a late afternoon tornado threat while the region remains on the southwest periphery of 850-mb winds in excess of 30 kts. ..Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31159754 31929699 32159648 32239594 32199559 32109524 31639497 31239505 31069525 30999557 30779608 30509638 30319709 30489746 31159754 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...20Z Update... Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region. An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as surface observations continue to show gradual heating and destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS. Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability. Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. Read more