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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

MD 0560 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PART OF EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...a part of east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281446Z - 281615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Short-line segment moving east-northeast into a part of east Texas may intensify as the downstream air mass slowly destabilizes into the afternoon. A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible. DISCUSSION...Remnants of the largely decaying early morning MCS have maintained a short-line segment within the TX Triangle. KGRK radar has detected transient mesovortices along its leading edge, which is overlapping with the western periphery of the stronger low-level shear environment across east TX per HGX/CRP VWP data. While surface wind gusts have been sub-severe thus far, primary threat will be potential for a couple brief tornadoes as the line segment shifts towards the I-45 corridor. Downstream air mass is slowly destabilizing amid pervasive cloud cover, but this process could support gradual intensification into the afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance differs in how extensive/intense this convection will be prior to later in the afternoon. ..Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31359689 31809605 31929545 31779492 31559444 31159436 30979436 30689441 30529468 30389522 30199623 30229685 30279694 30279694 30839683 30839683 31359689 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 Read more