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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

MD 0568 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 160... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Western LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 160... Valid 290336Z - 290530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 160 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will persist across portions of southeast TX into western LA. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection appears largely responsible for ongoing corridor of strong/severe convection that extends from Grimes County TX-De Soto Parish LA. Western flank of this corridor is an extension of a larger MCS that has advanced into southern AR, arcing southwest into southeast TX. TX portion of this MCS will likely remain quasi stationary due to LLJ that has yet to shift downstream. While environmental shear supports sustained, rotating updrafts, the primary storm mode will remain more complex with multiple storm mergers and clusters than supercells. Very heavy rain will be noted along this corridor, though a brief tornado and/or locally damaging winds remain possible. ..Darrow.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30779596 32049323 31359299 30209569 30779596 Read more

MD 0567 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 159... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 159... Valid 290321Z - 290415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 159 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Local watch extension past 04z may be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Missouri and Arkansas. Mesoanalysis indicates surface based instability has become limited, though MLCAPE around 500-1,000 J/kg continues to advect in from the southeast. This activity is also located along the edge of the axis of a 40 kt low-level jet, which is providing ample shear for maintaining an organized severe threat. As such, a threat of damaging winds may persist through the short term. Further south, a supercell has tracked from the OK/AR border into western AR and continues to maintain organization with periods of increase in rotation strength. WW159 may need to be expanded in time and spatial extent to account for potential risk with this storm and for additional transient supercell activity across northern Arkansas that may move into southern Missouri. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36689327 37019308 37319289 37429242 37239182 37049165 36519156 36059267 35789312 35639333 35659370 35939371 36689327 Read more

MD 0566 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 160... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 160... Valid 290116Z - 290245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 160 continues. SUMMARY...Severe squall line will advance beyond ww160, necessitating the need for a new ww immediately downstream. DISCUSSION...Upscale growth continues with MCS as it propagates across the Ark-La-TX early this evening. Leading edge of surging bow is approaching ELD, and damaging winds will be common with this squall line. Given the expanding precip shield and cold pool, forward momentum should easily allow this complex to advance beyond ww160 across southern AR. Shear profiles favor supercells, but the primary storm mode will likely remain an MCS. Even so, tornadoes remain possible with embedded circulations, along with any discrete structures that could evolve independent of this MCS. ..Darrow.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33749366 34949217 34269068 32219190 32339367 33749366 Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0161 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 161 TORNADO AR LA MS 290155Z - 290700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Western Mississippi * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to the northeast across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible with the more intense portions of the bow. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Pine Bluff AR to 35 miles east southeast of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...WW 160... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 159 TORNADO AR MO OK 282215Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify into the early evening across eastern Oklahoma and eventually spread into southwest Missouri and western Arkansas later this evening. A few supercells are possible as storms mature this evening. Low-level shear and moist conditions in the low levels will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms. Large hail and damaging gusts are also possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Monett MO to 50 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more