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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0163 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 30 18:08:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a vigorous shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley, an upstream shortwave impulse will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The initial cold front on D1 over the central Great Plains will stall and advance north as a warm front Wednesday night. Convective outflows from residual D1/early D2 convection should exist south of this boundary in parts of OK. ...Central Great Plains... Consensus of guidance continues to trend south with the placement of the quasi-stationary front expected to be lying across southern KS at 12Z Wednesday. A pronounced low-level jet should restrengthen during the day, which will probably yield a swath of elevated convection spreading northeast across the Mid-MO Valley with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat. How far north the front will advance during the day is uncertain with above-average spread across guidance, but near its intersection with the surface dryline in the southwest to west-central KS vicinity should be the most favorable combination of the thermodynamic/kinematic environment. With near-neutral mid-level height change through early evening, convergence along the dryline will be necessary for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Guidance largely suggests convective coverage will remain isolated at most. But within a highly favorable environment for supercells, tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. On Wednesday evening into the night, the plume of returning low-level moisture coupled with increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the northern Rockies to High Plains should lead to largely elevated storms developing in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity. Much of this convection should remain north-northwest of the surface warm front and likely remain elevated until very late in the period. But with very steep lapse rates aloft, a strong low-level jet and strong forcing for ascent, an elevated MCS capable of producing both large hail and severe surface wind gusts remains possible. ...Southern Great Plains... Strong heating will occur near the dryline, where an uncapped and very unstable air mass will develop with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. Bulk of guidance suggests appreciable convective development will occur in west TX, where a minor mid-level impulse may emerge within the modest southern-stream flow regime. More isolated dryline storms should form farther north, perhaps intersecting with residual outflows from remnant convection in OK on Wednesday morning. Deep-layer shear compared to early May climo will be relatively modest, but the ample buoyancy coupled with numerous storms should yield a mixed cluster and transient/slow-moving supercell mode. Large to significant severe hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. Potential will exist for upscale growth into slow-moving clusters that move east into central parts of TX during the evening and likely linger overnight, with a gradually subsiding severe threat during these time frames. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/30/2024 Read more