Aggregator

MD 0580 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 164... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 164... Valid 302230Z - 010000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 164 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east across ww164 this evening. New ww will likely be warranted downstream by 23z. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Plains short-wave trough appears to be affecting northeast KS into extreme northwest MO early this evening. Surface front is advancing east with this feature and currently arcs from western IA-southeast NE-central KS. Numerous robust updrafts/supercells have evolved along/ahead of this boundary and large hail appears to be common with most longer-lived updrafts. Additionally, a few tornadoes have been noted with two long-lived supercells over northeast KS. Latest VWP data ahead of this activity is quite strong with 0-3 SRH on the order of 300-400 m2/s2. Tornado threat continues, along with large hail as this activity propagates downstream. ..Darrow.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36989807 40519604 40529393 36979607 36989807 Read more

MD 0579 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302214Z - 010015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Local risk of very large hail will continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms located along the dryline over west Texas have a history of producing very large hail, up to 2.5 inches in diameter during the past hour. Sounding analysis indicates favorable long hodographs, ample instability, and with deep layer flow that would support continued risk of very large hail. There is some uncertainty in the overall coverage of storms and thus the coverage of the severe threat. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31140245 31690217 32260175 32340133 32120077 31520078 30530116 29790124 29600147 29550184 29700230 29760252 29880264 31140245 Read more

MD 0577 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302024Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and evening. While stronger cells may pose a risk for severe hail, they may not be particularly long-lived. While the need for a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated, trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Deepening convection, including at least attempts at thunderstorm initiation, is underway near the dryline across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas. However, mid/upper support for thunderstorm development appears likely to remain weak to negligible, while inhibition associated with warming elevated mixed-layer air spreading east of the southern Rockies continues to increase. With the dryline also forecast to tend to slowly retreat westward/northwestward into this evening, the potential for sustained thunderstorm development appears generally low, but an isolated storm or two could briefly develop and intensify. In an environment conditionally supportive of supercells, large hail appears the primary potential severe hazard before the storms dissipate. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36779887 37259794 36909710 35619821 34599892 33669966 33240031 33580063 34600048 35170017 36779887 Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 166 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 302250Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An organized band of severe thunderstorms over eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri will continue to move east this evening into the Watch area. Supercells with an attendant risk for large to very large hail, perhaps a tornado, and severe gusts are possible before some upscale growth into one or more linear bands of storms later this evening. As the linear upscale growth occurs, wind damage will increasingly become the primary severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Kirksville MO to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0578 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 163... FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...Central and western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 163... Valid 302057Z - 302230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado and severe threat increasing through late afternoon/early evening. DISCUSSION...A few discrete supercells continue to mature across portions of far western/southwestern Iowa and far eastern Nebraska. These storms have developed near a deepening surface cyclone, attendant to an upper level shortwave trough, and ahead of a cold front within an increasingly unstable air mass. Backed surface flow remains in place within the warm sector across central and south central Iowa, and the warm front is slowly lifting northward. As a mid level jet max around 50-60 kt continues to overspread the region, low level shear profiles/hodographs will become even more favorable for tornadic supercells. This may especially be true along the aforementioned effective warm front where nearly parallel effective shear vectors with magnitudes of 55-60 kt will persist into early evening. ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40649598 40699653 41099604 41749649 42339629 42309575 42259424 42259364 41959257 41269256 40759259 40519282 40529365 40539411 40589479 40599527 40619547 40649598 Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 302135Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop through the late afternoon into the early evening near and east of the dryline. Some of the stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. A narrow window of time may exist for a brief tornado towards the early evening mainly over the Oklahoma portion of the Watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Ponca City OK to 130 miles south southwest of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

MD 0576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301935Z - 302130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is probable through 4-7 PM CDT, including a few supercells with potential to produce large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...To the south of a strong, broadly cyclonic mid/upper jet nosing east of the Front Range, toward the the middle Missouri Valley, warm elevated mixed-layer air remains inhibitive to convective development in the presence of weak to negligible mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, where the cold front is overtaking a sharpening dryline across the Salina vicinity of north central Kansas, more notable deepening of convective development is ongoing. Aided by a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary-layer heating, including surface temperatures exceeding 90F along an axis across northwestern Oklahoma into the Salina vicinity, mixed-layer CAPE now appears in excess of 2000 J/kg along the sharpening dryline. With additional insolation, it appears that low-level forcing near the cold front/dryline intersection may become sufficient to support sustained thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z. In the presence of moderate but veering flow with height in the 850-500 mb layer, vertical shear will be conducive to supercell development, at least initially, and perhaps an upscale growing line with persistent supercell development along its southern flank, gradually approaching the Wichita area through early evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38499761 39979640 39699511 37819607 36929748 37309836 38499761 Read more

MD 0575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern South Dakota...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301929Z - 302130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over eastern SD may grow upscale into a more organized line/cluster with time. Damaging winds and hail are possible, but the coverage and severity are uncertain. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of the advancing shortwave trough, thunderstorms have initiated along a pre-frontal trough/convergence zone across parts of eastern SD and northeastern NE. North of a modifying outflow boundary/effective warm front, the air mass has slowly moistened and warmed into the low 60s F. While not overly unstable, heating through scattered cloud breaks and further moistening will continue to allow for destabilization with SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Effective straight-line hodographs will favor a linear/cluster mode with further upscale growth from storm interactions likely. Given the storm mode and modest buoyancy, damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. However, occasional hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any embedded supercell/bowing structures able to develop. Buoyancy decreases farther east indicating some uncertainty on the coverage and timing of the severe risk. Still, mesoscale trends suggest further destabilization is likely and a downstream severe risk may develop. With this in mind, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42249290 42419701 42539722 43629719 44289665 44089414 43779337 43299248 43179231 42969236 42399253 42309263 42249290 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more