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WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 163 TORNADO IA NE 301835Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over eastern Nebraska and track eastward across the watch area through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Lincoln NE to 35 miles east of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 164 TORNADO KS MO 302030Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Northwest Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along a cold front/dryline over eastern Kansas and drift eastward through the afternoon and evening. Supercells capable of very large hail are the main concern, although damaging winds and a tornado or two may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Falls City NE to 50 miles south southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY NEC021-023-025-037-039-043-053-055-109-119-131-141-151-153-155- 159-167-173-177-302040- Read more