Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected late this week and over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong tough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Sunday - Southern New Mexico.... Stronger mid-level flow will start to spread east on Sunday as the western CONUS mid-level trough advances east. There is still some uncertainty with timing of this trough and slightly faster timing could lead to Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. ...D6/Mon-D8/Wed - Eastern New Mexico and vicinity.... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico and vicinity Monday/Day6 and Tuesday/Day7 as moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains with a deeply mixed airmass and very dry surface conditions expected. These winds will be further supported by the tightening pressure gradient from cyclogenesis in the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions may continue for most of next week to Day 8 and beyond, but there is enough model uncertainty to precede 70% Critical probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected late this week and over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong tough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Sunday - Southern New Mexico.... Stronger mid-level flow will start to spread east on Sunday as the western CONUS mid-level trough advances east. There is still some uncertainty with timing of this trough and slightly faster timing could lead to Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. ...D6/Mon-D8/Wed - Eastern New Mexico and vicinity.... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico and vicinity Monday/Day6 and Tuesday/Day7 as moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains with a deeply mixed airmass and very dry surface conditions expected. These winds will be further supported by the tightening pressure gradient from cyclogenesis in the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions may continue for most of next week to Day 8 and beyond, but there is enough model uncertainty to precede 70% Critical probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected late this week and over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong tough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Sunday - Southern New Mexico.... Stronger mid-level flow will start to spread east on Sunday as the western CONUS mid-level trough advances east. There is still some uncertainty with timing of this trough and slightly faster timing could lead to Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. ...D6/Mon-D8/Wed - Eastern New Mexico and vicinity.... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico and vicinity Monday/Day6 and Tuesday/Day7 as moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains with a deeply mixed airmass and very dry surface conditions expected. These winds will be further supported by the tightening pressure gradient from cyclogenesis in the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions may continue for most of next week to Day 8 and beyond, but there is enough model uncertainty to precede 70% Critical probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected late this week and over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong tough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Sunday - Southern New Mexico.... Stronger mid-level flow will start to spread east on Sunday as the western CONUS mid-level trough advances east. There is still some uncertainty with timing of this trough and slightly faster timing could lead to Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. ...D6/Mon-D8/Wed - Eastern New Mexico and vicinity.... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico and vicinity Monday/Day6 and Tuesday/Day7 as moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains with a deeply mixed airmass and very dry surface conditions expected. These winds will be further supported by the tightening pressure gradient from cyclogenesis in the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions may continue for most of next week to Day 8 and beyond, but there is enough model uncertainty to precede 70% Critical probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon. Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual MCS development will be possible. The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS, where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat of all severe hazards. Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. . ..Dean.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Trimmed the northeastern extent of the Elevated area across eastern New Mexico based on forecast frontal position. Otherwise, no changes are necessary. See previous forecast discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Thursday, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Deterministic guidance varies on how widespread any critical wind speeds will be. This leads to low confidence in including a Critical area with this outlook, but will be monitored for future outlook updates. For now, Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Gov. Mike Parson extended Missouri's drought alert on Friday, April 26. the alert has been extended through September 1. KFVS12 (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), April 26, 2024 Gov. Mike Parson signed an executive order to extend Missouri’s drought alert until May 1, 2024. The drought alert began on May 31, 2023 in response to severe drought conditions. Many ranchers have had to sell livestock early and were looking for alternative feed. St. Joseph News-Press (Mo.), Nov 17, 2023 Gov. Mike Parson signed an executive order, directing the activation of the state’s Drought Assessment Committee and that state and federal agencies participate as needed. The Executive Order will expire on Dec. 1, 2023. KRCG-TV (New Bloomfield, Mo.), May 31, 2023